At the beginning of the new year, tensions between the United States and Iran escalate again. On January 3 local time, the US military launched an unmanned fighter air strike on Iraqi Baghdad International Airport, killing many people, including General Soleimani. On January 4, the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, the "Green Zone", the Jadria community and the Ballard Air Force Base stationed by the US forces were attacked.
Soleimani was killed, Iran's people are in full swing, and the Iranian government vows to carry out "hard revenge". The U.S. government has also increased its troops to Middle East , calling on U.S. citizens to evacuate Iraq. Washington is on alert, and the tension has aroused global attention.
So, what is Iran’s most likely “retaliation”, what is Iran’s military strength, and what can it use to retaliate against the United States?
Iran's "revenge" blueprint
According to the US " Atlantic Monthly ", the US Iranian military strategy expert Arian Tabatabai believes that Iran "will undoubtedly take a reaction", but it will not be that instinctive outbreak reaction to appease the country, but will be a "more strategic and carefully planned action", so it needs to be alert at any time.
report believes that because of the mismatch between military power and the United States, Iran tends to avoid direct conflict through proxy wars. In this way, Iran can achieve Iran's interests at the lowest cost and at the lowest risk. The U.S. Congressional Research Service recently made a list of 20 terrorist attacks or plans related to Iran since 1979 against the United States and its alliances have been carried out by agents.
, and a recent analysis by the British think tank International Strategic Institute also pointed out that Iranian leaders have concluded that their strongest weapon is their "ability to fight on the Middle East battlefield through third parties", which will not inspire "a strong international response, not at the cost of head-on conflict with hostile forces and threatening the Iranian regime, but has been successfully advancing Iran's interests."
analysis believes that Iran does not want to launch a direct and head-on war with the United States, but this does not mean that the revenge will not be fierce this time. After all, in the history of conflict between the United States and Iran over the past forty years, moments like this are unprecedented. Therefore, although the two countries have been "dealing" for a long time, it is difficult to predict what will happen next. Tabatabai believes that it is foreseeable that Iran will retaliate. The question now is, will Iran’s combat blueprint for the past few years be broken?
Iran's military strength
According to the global military strength rankings, Iran ranks 14th in the world. According to BBC, the British think tank International Strategic Institute said that about 523,000 people in Iran are engaged in various military positions, including 350,000 conventional troops and at least 150,000 Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Revolutionary Guard has its own navy and air force . There are another 20,000 service personnel in the navy, and this team controls armed patrol ships in , Strait of Hormuz . Several conflicts between Iran and foreign tankers occurred here in 2019. In addition, the Revolutionary Guards also control the militia known as Basij.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has its own navy, air force and other forces. According to BBC
Since its establishment more than 40 years ago, the Revolutionary Guard Corps has now become the main military, political and economic force in Iran. Although its size is not as large as the conventional military, it has become Iran's most authoritative military force. The Quds Force led by Soleimani, who was attacked and killed, is a team that performs secret missions overseas for the Revolutionary Guards, and reports directly to Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei. The Quds Brigade was sent to Syria to assist the Syrian President Assad and his Shiite militia, and also supported Shiite military forces in Iraq.
However, the United States said Quds Brigade played more roles in the Middle East, including providing funds, training, weapons and equipment to terrorist organizations.
Iran: Middle East missile has the most powerful country
Compared with Israel and Saudi Arabia , Iran's air power is relatively weak. But Iran has missiles, which is a key part of its military power.
missile is Iran's core military force, according to a report from the US Department of Defense, compared with countries that mainly have short-range and medium-range missiles, Iran's missile power is the most powerful in the Middle East. In addition, Iran is also developing space technology to develop intercontinental missiles with a longer range.
According to the think tank Royal United Service Research Institute (RUSI), Iran's long-range missile plan was delayed due to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement . But Iran may have resumed the plan due to uncertainty surrounding the deal.
No matter how the long-range missile program progresses, many targets in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf are within Iran's short-range missile range. To this end, in May last year, after the situation with Iran began to tense, the United States set up anti-missile systems in the Middle East to resist ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, etc.
Over the years, Iran's arms imports have been affected by economic problems and economic sanctions, and compared with other countries in the Middle East, imports are relatively small. According to data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, from 2009 to 2018, the import of Iran's defense forces was equivalent to 3.5% of the same period in Saudi Arabia.
Unconventional weapons and cyber attack capabilities
Despite being sanctioned for many years, Iran has developed drones.
Since 2016, Iranian drones have begun to be used in Iraq's struggle against IS. In June 2019, Iran also successfully shot down the US surveillance drone, claiming it had violated Iranian airspace in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Iran has also sold or transferred drone technology to its regional alliances and agents.
In September 2019, two key oil refining facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones and missiles. Although Tehran denied that the matter involved Iran and said it was done by Yemen's Houthi armed forces, both the United States and Saudi Arabia believe it is related to Iran.
The United States accused Iran of providing drones to Houthi armed forces. According to BBC
According to reports, Iran's nuclear facilities encountered a major cyber attack in 2010, and Iran has since begun to vigorously develop its cyber attack capabilities.
Red Star News Reporter Wang Yalin Lin Rong Compilation Report
Editor Peng Yi
