The international financial market has always had a strong linkage effect.
Everyone is complaining about the plummeting A shares , while the overseas market is also shaking.
I have counted the stock index performance of major global markets,
So, after the global market also encounters a sharp pullback, which one to buy and how to buy, I think this is a question worth thinking about.
1. The importance of growth rate
I found the operating data and stock price change data of Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe Co., Ltd. .
It can be seen that stock prices and profit growth rate show a significant positive correlation.
From the end of 2009 to mid-2013, Yanghe Co., Ltd.'s share price even suppressed Kweichow Moutai for a while, which was also due to the fact that the net profit growth rate of Yanghe exceeded Moutai for several consecutive reporting periods.
However, since the second half of 2013, Yanghe Co., Ltd.'s profit growth rate has gradually been caught up by Moutai, and even saw a year-on-year decline in profits for several consecutive quarters.
The subsequent ending was that Kweichow Moutai had become the totem of A-shares, and Yanghe shares were gradually abandoned by the market.
industry is the same as stocks .
2 indexes of US stocks , Dow Jones Industrial Index and Nasdaq Index are two indexes with opposite styles. Most of the Dow Jones Industrial Index are low-valuation energy and industrial companies, while in the Nasdaq Index, high-growth technology companies occupy most of the weight.
Both indexes have achieved upswing since 2009, but obviously, the Nasdaq index has increased significantly, basically twice that of the Dow Jones Index . Although
has been criticized for its high valuation, in fact, the current price-to-earnings ratio of Nasdaq remains at the level in early 2009. On the contrary, the valuation of the Dow Jones Industrial Index has increased significantly.
high valuation can be digested through higher growth rates, which is the charm of the growth industry.
So, for ordinary investors, investing in high-growth individual stocks or industries is a better way.
2. Vietnam: a fast-growing market
Macro-industry-individual stocks, this is a complete top-down analysis system.
Investors in A-shares who are deep in A-shares often pay more attention to the industry and individual stocks, but the macro environment that is often overlooked is the simplest way to get rich.
If the economic growth rate of a region is fast and continuous, the factors of the industry and individual stocks can be basically ignored.
I pulled the growth rate data of GDP in some developing countries around the world (current GDP price)
can meet the fast and continuous growth rate, and there is actually one country, that is Vietnam.
From 2016 to 2021, the average GDP growth rate in Vietnam was 7.55%.
Although Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2021 is not the most outstanding among these countries, the sustainability of economic growth is relatively excellent.
The standard deviation of GDP growth in the past six years is only 1.81%.
sustained and stable economic growth, which is why the Vietnamese market has become a stock market that has performed well in the past two years.
If you have the unique vision to buy Daihong Vietnam market (Class A share 008763.OF, C share 008764.OF) in the past two years, you should be happy now.
3. Why is Vietnam's economy so good?
There must be reasons behind Vietnam's ability to achieve such a high economic growth rate.
First, Vietnam's population structure is very healthy, with the proportion of the population aged 15-64 aged 68.94%, and the proportion of the population aged 0-14 aged 23.19%.
Although the proportion of the working population has dropped slightly, it is still in a dividend period.
And the labor cost in Vietnam is very low.
More than ten years ago, many of the international big names we came into contact with in China were "made in China".
But now, more and more product labels have become "made in Vietnam".
This means that there is already more and more international capital, and has seen the labor demographic dividend of Vietnam.
Second, Vietnam's coastline is very long.
You can see from the map that although Vietnam has a small area, its coastline is very long. On this coastline that stretches for thousands of kilometers, there are about 50 ports of various sizes in Vietnam.
Excellent geographical conditions greatly promoted Vietnam's exports.
In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam's cargo exports reached US$89.1 billion (approximately RMB 584.2 billion), a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. Among them, exports in March reached US$34.7 billion (approximately RMB 227.5 billion), an increase of 14.8% year-on-year. The number
has reached 60% of the entire Guangdong Province.
In a sense, exports are the lifeblood of Vietnam's economy, because compared with Guangdong Province, Vietnam's total GDP is only one-sixth of that of Guangdong Province.
has said so much, can Vietnam still buy it?
There are many people who are willing to compare Vietnam with China.
Indeed, the two are very similar.
Whether it is the social system, population structure, or geographical conditions, Vietnam is really like China 15 years ago.
The weighted stocks in the Vietnam Stock Index are also very retro. The two industries of banking and real estate account for more than 70% of the weight of the Vietnam VN30 Index.
So, I think using the valuation levels of the two industries in my country's banking and real estate 15 years ago to analyze the valuation levels of the Vietnam VN30 Index.
15 years ago, the valuation center of my country's real estate and banking industries was about 20 times the price-to-earnings ratio.
and the latest price-to-earnings ratio of Vietnam VN30 index is about 13-14.
From this perspective, the Vietnam Index still has a certain room for growth. As the only fund product currently focused on investing in the Vietnamese market, Tianhong Vietnam Market (Class A share 008763.OF, C share 008764.OF) can still be paid attention to.
However, the size of the Vietnamese market is a little smaller after all, and it is easily affected by capital. Therefore, for investors with lower risk preference for , fixed investment may be a better way.
original Mistlei iETF Linghu Chong
