On October 13, the United States will release the consumer price index (CPI) data for September, among which excluding the core CPI of energy and food prices will become the focus of the market. Analysts estimate that the core CPI may slow down month-on-month by , but the pace of rate hikes may not slow down.
11, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that in order to fight the "severeest" inflation in decades, the Federal Reserve Bank of China should also come up with a stricter monetary policy . She believes that insufficient policy strength is increasing risks, which may continue "very high" inflation.
. Regarding the market's expected "recession" problem, LorettaMester also insists on the current view of "no worries". In her opinion, the current financial market operation is not out of order, and while the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at , it is also continuing to pay attention to related news. Even if there is uncertainty, the Fed should stick to its balance sheet reduction plan.
Although the market also issued a warning earlier that the Fed's fight against inflation may be the pain of the economy. However, within the Federal Reserve, there are still many members who believe that even if the US economic growth rate may slow down, and even economic development may remain the same this year, the risk of falling into an economic recession is not high.
But on the 11th, International Monetary Fund (IMF) once again lowered its US economic expectations, which means that the growth risk of the US economy is still increasing. The IMF's forecast for the U.S. economic growth this year is 1.6%, down 0.7 percentage points from July, lower than 2.7% of the global economic growth rate.
It is reported that international institutions including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have made more pessimistic predictions earlier. On the 10th, JPMorgan Chase CEO O Dimon even publicly called out that it may only be a matter of time before the US economy falls into recession, and will be an important witness point in the next 6-9 months. News shows that this view is similar to Fitch's estimate.
However, as the midterm election approaches, White House is not willing to prevail in the market for "recession". On the 11th, Biden mentioned in a TV interview that he did not think the United States would experience an economic recession, but if this happens, would also be "very mild", and would just be a slight decline in the economy.
Although Biden has repeatedly insisted that the US economy will not fall into recession after the second quarter of GDP growth rate was announced. However, in this statement, Biden did not deny the possibility of a recession, which shows that the current situation of the US economy is obviously not as optimistic as it was at the beginning.
text | Zheng Hongjie Title | Huang Zixin Review | Zeng Yi
