Today, steel suddenly fell sharply, and the steel man was confused. What is the reason? I remember that steel prices fell by more than 1,000 in October last year. Isn’t history going to repeat it, right? Let's continue to look down!
Currently, the global economic development is in a downturn, Feder Evans said that in March next year, the interest rate will be around 4.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve hike rate 75 basis points in November meeting has soared to 81.6%, while the data was only 56.5% a week ago. In order to alleviate inflation , the pressure of rising interest rates is getting greater and greater, and the number of non-farm employment is about to begin to shrink, and The demand for steel will also decline.
Domestic, after the baptism of the new crown epidemic, downstream terminal procurement and operation difficulties are difficult, and the funds in hand are even more difficult. It is even more difficult to replenish the warehouse in large quantities. The cold winter in the entire steel market is coming, and it is still to build a bottom and try again and again. Let’s look down next...
Macro news, With the opening of the Fed's interest rate hike in , the dollar index continues to strengthen, the RMB exchange rate depreciation against the US dollar has exceeded 10%, and there is still pressure in the short term. Not many institutions expect that the RMB will continue to depreciate significantly.
At present, Central Bank still has many policy tools to guide RMB expectations. If necessary, restart countercyclical factor , or increase the issuance scale of central bills in offshore market to tighten RMB liquidity. If currency flow slows down, all industries will face a serious capital crisis and the overall market trading volume will shrink. Whether on the supply side or the demand side, the mentality is relatively cautious. We are mostly doing stable operations and maintain stable operation, and the same is true when returning to steel prices.
National Climate Center La Nina incident in the equatorial Middle East Pacific continues further and is expected to continue until the winter of 2022/2023. The temperature in most areas of the country is lower than the same period last year, seriously affecting the progress of outdoor construction. will have a direct impact on steel procurement in the later stage. and current terminal users are not afraid to restock in large quantities under the repeated emotions of the epidemic. The traditional Golden September and Silver October have become a "legend" this year.
Let’s look at the situation in automobiles. According to the current sales data of , the retail sales of passenger car market in September this year reached 1.922 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, a relatively fast growth; in September, retail sales increased by 2.8% month-on-month, and the month-on-month growth rate was at a historical low in the same period in the past 20 years. At present, the implementation of the halving of the car purchase tax policy has entered the countdown, and potential consumers' attention to buying cars has increased significantly, while car prices are still at a low level, but consumers' urgency to buy cars is not high.
From the past, car prices may enter a promotional contraction period as usual in October. Sales volume continue to rise at the end of the year before the exit of the policy in the future will further reduce the promotional efforts. Therefore, October is the best time to buy a car. However, the growth rate of vehicle sales has declined. The overall vehicle sales in 1 was not optimistic in October, and the demand for steel was weak, which was the overall negative steel price trend.
spot
Spot price of steel is stable and weak
China Steel Network APP data shows:
Building Materials 24 markets, 4 fell 10-30, rebar The average price of 20mmHRB400E is 4155 yuan/ton, the same as the price on the previous trading day; among the 324 markets of
hot coil html, 20 fell 10-60, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coil is 4047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; among the 323 markets of
medium-thick plate html, 7 fell 10-20, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium-roll plate is 4227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, a total of 28 steel mills have adjusted their prices today.
Among them: 3 companies have been raised, accounting for 10.7%, with a price adjustment of 10-30 yuan/ton, with the highest increase of Shagang Yongxing Special Steel ;
has been downgraded, accounting for 10.7%, with a price adjustment of 10-30 yuan/ton, with the largest decline of Ruifeng Strip; 22 companies have been stable, accounting for 78.6%.
1 steel futures fell
Today's thread main force futures fell 92, closing at 3,774, a drop of 2.38%; the main force of hot coil fell 107, closing at 3,782, a drop of 2.75%; the main force of coke fell 59, closing at 2,825.5, a drop of 2.05%; the main force of coking coal fell 11.5, closing at 2,176, a drop of 0.53%; the main force of iron ore fell 18.5, closing at 721, a drop of 18.5%.
comprehensively looks at
The global economy has been developing poorly, and the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates many times in succession to resist inflation. The domestic economy has been affected and cannot escape the misfortune of economic crisis . Is steel prices really willing to sit still and wait for death, can't recover?
I don’t think so. With the repeated trials of futures, the overall trend is still continuing to rebound, but the space above is limited. If it goes well, it hoveres around 3750-3850. Under the guidance of futures steel, the spot price rises and falls day by day, tortures every steel worker. With the release of Tangshan production restriction speculation sentiment, the price fell slightly today, and traders are even more in the psychological effect of buying up but not buying down. The market is strong and the overall transaction is not smooth. is expected to continue to fall slightly in the short term.
