From July 31 to August 13, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply, from US$8,200 to around US$6,000, returning to the mid-to-term life and death line. In the past four trading days, the price of Bitcoin has temporarily hovered between US$6,000 and US$6,500. This year, the leeks have been harvested many times, the market trading popularity has become weaker and weaker, and funds have fled. Where will the price of Bitcoin go in the future?
Looking at the financial market, after any trading product has been greatly intervened in a short period of time, it will always face a sharp plunge, and it is very common to vomit more than half of the previous increase. , you can’t see that China’s A-shares started a bull market in July 2014, with an increase of more than 5,100 from 2,000 points. After recording a high in June 2015, A-shares are still in a bearish position. Today’s A-shares quoted around 2,755. The opportunity for wealth appreciation brought about by the sharp rise and fall of the transaction target is its charm and risk.
The mood of the leek army is following the cliff-like decline
Last week there were still many news about the coin market. The main impact is that the US SEC has once again postponed the resolution time of Bitcoin ETF, and the successful mass production of Canaan Creative 7nm chips.
First of all, the Bitcoin ETF, which is the lifeline of the market trend this year, is deliberating on . If Bitcoin ETF passes approval, it will first lower the threshold for Bitcoin transactions and bring a large amount of off-market funds to the Bitcoin trading market; the second will promote the development of virtual digital currencies, such as promoting asset custody; third, ETF changes people's overall view of digital currency regulatory risks through the official recognition of Bitcoin as a legal asset class, and accelerates the development of virtual digital currencies.
Bitcoin ETF has many benefits, but it is also very difficult. The Bitcoin market also pays close attention to this time. Every big rise and fall is basically caused by the news of the ETF. Last Tuesday night, it was reported that the US SEC once again postponed the resolution of the Bitcoin ETF, which led to the accelerated decline of the BTC price in the next few days. I believe that before September 30, the currency circle will still attach great importance to this result. After all, this is the main basis for Bitcoin to go bullish and bearish in the future.
And the other is Canaan Creative's 7nm chip successfully mass-produced , which is also called "super mining machine" in the industry. The launch of super mining machine has caused the Bitcoin mining industry to surging, and the electricity cost of producing coins was directly halved. The Bitcoin price fell again and recorded a low level on the same day. In the 7nm war, Canaan Creative took the lead, but Bitmain's counterattack may be near. In the early stage, this news may directly lead to negative negative news for the price of Bitcoin, but in the long run, if everyone switches to high computing power machines, the computing power of Bitcoin will increase across the entire network, and the difficulty of mining of Bitcoin will also increase, and the result will not change much.
Technically, Bitcoin once again faced a super important support level since the bear market
Last week, the price of Bitcoin closed down again and closed negative. closed down by about 16.8% throughout the week, and the decline was slightly smaller than the decline in the previous week. The two negative lines basically gave up the upside space in July. Let’s take a look at the weekly K-line chart first. It can be seen on the
weekly K-line chart that since the price of Bitcoin recorded a price of more than 20,000, it has begun to decline. Fortunately, the previous three sharp drops have all received support in the area of 5700-6,000 US dollars and recorded a good rebound. However, it can be seen during the session that the height of each rebound gradually fell, and the price center of gravity has shifted significantly.
From the technical perspective, in this year's trend, the weekly K-line chart forms a K-line pattern of descending triangle . What is a descending triangle? descending triangle usually tilts downwards at the connection line of the retracement low point approaching level while the connection line of the retracement high point tilts downward, which means that the strength of the market seller gradually increases, causing the high point to evolve with time, and the lower the market is lower and lower. The buying orders supported by the lower level gradually weakens, and the selling pressure that retreats and waits for a wait-and-see selling pressure gradually increases. When the buying force becomes weaker and the selling pressure gradually increases, it is sorted to the end, and the volume can be slightly amplified, and the price has a greater chance of falling below.
Excluding other aspects, the rigorous point is only analyzed from the technical pattern. The current mid-term trend of Bitcoin weekly K-line chart pattern is very similar to the K-line pattern decline triangle. Since it is a downward triangle, the possibility of its falling below the support line is greater than the rising breakthrough pressure line. Of course, the actual K-line trend may not be a downward break. There are still many factors that affect the Bitcoin price trend in . However, from the technical analysis, since Bitcoin’s sharp decline at a high level, the overall trend is a bear market plus the medium-term K-line pattern is relatively short, and the probability of downward breaking increases.
technical aspects need to be coordinated with fundamentals. The biggest focus of the market now is on the review of SEC's attention to Bitcoin, which can be said to be a "life and death gate". News will come out at the end of September, so pay close attention to the news in this area. If the SEC directly refuses the listing of Bitcoin ETFs, it will be directly negative for Bitcoin. By then, Bitcoin will fall below the medium-term support line of 5700-6000, it will be a foregone conclusion; on the contrary, if there is a certain tendency to list, it will be a good thing. The price of Bitcoin will turn from weak to strong, breaking through the pressure line to reverse the downward trend since this year. We will still look at the future trend of
, step by step, especially the medium-term trend analysis. Often, a change in detail will affect the whole situation. In the short term, after the Bitcoin price fell from US$8,200 to the first line around 6,000, it temporarily fluctuated between US$6,000 and US$6,500. Just pay attention to the breakthrough situation at the high and low levels. In the short term, it is just a minced meat market. A larger meat-eating market is the time period when the Bitcoin price breaks through and falls. The triangle opens up a new operating space. As time goes by, there is not much time given to Bitcoin in the falling triangle, and the time window for changing the market is coming.
(Author: Yinglian Digital Currency Analysis, this article only represents the author's views and does not represent the official position of Liandede)
