This year, the domestic stock market will take 9 days off during the National Day holiday. In addition to two weekends, October 3rd to October 7th is a complete trading week for the external stock markets. That is, when the domestic stock market is on vacation, the external stock market is still conducting normal trading. For example, US stock , it has been trading normally for 5 trading days.
As I expected in advance, during the major holiday of A shares on vacation, the US stock market still showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the A-share vacation, US stocks rose sharply. For example, on October 3 and 4, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.66% and 2.80% respectively, and returned to the 30,000 point mark. On October 5, it fell slightly by 0.14%, while on October 6 and 7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.15% and 2.11%. Nasdaq Index fell 3.80% on the 7th, and the weekly trend took a standard roller coaster and returned to the starting point from the end.
. Such a trend often makes investors in in A-share market feel very depressed. When the US stock market surged, domestic investors could only watch and stare at it, and they could not benefit from it at all. In this case, even investors in the A-share market will always speak anxiously, whether the holidays in the A-share market can be shortened, and even advised that the A-share market will not be closed.
However, the call for shortening the A-share holiday time has just emerged, and the trend of US stocks has changed. Because the A-share market closure has entered the second half, A-shares will soon open, so US stocks have turned from rising to falling, or even falling sharply, so investors in the A-share market can only shut up urgently. After all, this sharp drop in US stocks is a pressure for A-shares that are about to open the market. Regarding this trend in US stocks, many A-share investors call it "uneasy and kindness." During this National Day holiday, the US stock market repeated this trend and took a perfect roller coaster market, so how A-shares will go after the holiday is full of suspense.
In fact, when the US stock market rose sharply on October 3 and 4, there were many voices in the market saying that A-shares were stable. The implication was that A-shares stabilized at 3,000 points, and A-shares rose steadily after the holiday, so A-shares stabilized. However, after the sharp drop in US stocks on the 6th and 7th, A-shares are no longer "stable", but are "hanging". The positive factors that led to the rise of US stocks on the 3rd and 4th are gone, but the negative factors that led to the sharp drop of US stocks on the 6th and 7th are still there. Therefore, the A-shares cannot benefit from the rise of the US stock market, but the A-shares cannot benefit from the decline of the US stock market, but the A-shares cannot benefit from the rise of the US stock market.
Why did the US stocks rise sharply on the 3rd and 4th? The technical explanation is an oversold rebound, while the news explanation is a slowdown in the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, including an emergency call from UN officials. A UN agency made a statement that if the Federal Reserve and other central bank rates continue to raise , it may push the global economy into recession and then fall into long-term stagnation. The agency called on the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes.
, and the decline in US stocks on the 6th and 7th was a failure of the Fed's expectations of slowing interest rate hikes. On the one hand, Federal Reserve officials strengthened the expectation of interest rate hikes in , saying that "the pace of interest rate hikes will not slow down soon", "vowing to calm inflation to the target of 2%," "there will not be a rate cut next year", etc. On the other hand, OPEC announced a significant reduction in production to boost oil prices, adding a lot of upward pressure to US prices. In addition, the strong non-farm report released on the 7th triggered the market's panic about the Fed's expectations of active interest rate hikes, which is also an important reason for the sharp drop in US stocks on the 7th.
is also because of this that the sharp drop in US stocks on the 7th has indeed brought some pressure to A-shares that opened on October 10. After all, before the National Day holiday, A-shares have been falling continuously, and the appreciation of the US dollar and the expectation of interest rate hikes in the US dollar are one of the reasons for the decline of A-shares. After the holiday, A-shares will need to face the troubles of this factor again.
More importantly, A-shares will face gains and losses of 3,000 points after the holiday. In the first half of this year, when A-shares approached or fell below 3,000 points twice, management and even senior management repeatedly emphasized the need to maintain the stable development of the capital market. But now, when A-shares are approaching 3,000 points again, the management remains silent in front of 3,000 points. Not only that, in the first trading week after the holiday, A-shares arranged the issuance of 9 new shares, of which 3 new A-shares were arranged on Monday.Judging from this arrangement, 3000 points does not seem to be forbidden, and 3000 points will face greater pressure.
Of course, although A-shares face certain pressure after the holiday, they are also facing favorable factors. First, due to the sluggish market, the market has insufficient motivation to short , and the transaction amount has shrunk significantly. For example, on September 30, the transaction amount of the two markets was even less than 600 billion yuan, only 560.9 billion yuan. Although this was affected by holiday factors, the shrinkage of the transaction amount was still very obvious overall. Second, the improvement of my country's economic situation. Although the recovery speed in the third quarter slowed down, the economy is expected to gradually recover after a package of policies to stabilize economic growth has been gradually implemented. This is the basis for supporting the stock market to be good.
In addition, judging from the historical trend of A-shares in recent years, below 3000 points is the market's short trap , and A-shares have not stayed below 3000 points for a long time. Therefore, even though A-shares face certain downward pressure after the holiday, it is not ruled out that A-shares will fall below 3,000 points, overall, the A-share market has a greater chance of a recovery increase in the fourth quarter.
