Sure enough, A shares got the worst script. When the global stock market rebounded violently, A-shares closed. When the A-shares were about to open, the global stock market was about to plummet. The rebound was not present and it was inevitable to be beaten. Stock investors were really unlucky.
Specifically, the Asia-Pacific stock market fell across the board during the day yesterday. Nikkei index fell 0.71%, Hang Seng Index fell 1.51%, Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.3%, night trading US stock Dow fell 2.11%, and Nasdaq fell 3.80%. The rebound of US stocks in the first two days of this week was basically eaten.
Before, we have reminded everyone that the trend of global stock markets and even commodity depends on the yields of US dollar and US bonds, while the trend of US dollar and US bonds depends on the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Currently, the United States is facing a spiral-driven inflation that is highly sticky and must be cured at the cost of the US economic recession and the rise in unemployment rate. That is to say, when economic indicators show that the US economic recession and the US unemployment rate has risen, the Federal Reserve can alleviate the pace of rate hikes in .
Review the performance of global stock markets this week. Before the holiday, the yields of US dollar and US bonds had peaked and fell, and global stock markets were also in the oversold state, and there was demand for a technical rebound this week. In addition, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in September this week was significantly lower than market expectations and the UN agency called on the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes, and the market bets on dovish funds in the Fed increased, and the yield of US bond and the US dollar index fell sharply, and global stock markets ushered in a sharp rebound.
However, we said at the time that this may be just the market is looking for excuses to rebound, which is the market's wishful thinking. The Federal Reserve will not turn until it sees core inflation falls and unemployment rises. This week, we need to pay attention to the non-farm employment data on Friday night.
Employment data released by the United States last night showed that the non-farm employment population in September was 263,000, the previous value was 315,000, down from August, but higher than the market expectations of 250,000; the unemployment rate in September was 3.5%, the previous value was 3.7%, and the expected value was 3.7%. This shows that the U.S. job market remains strong, strengthening market expectations for hawkish interest rates hikes in the Federal Reserve, and the market resumes trading tightening.
After the release of US employment data in September, the US dollar index and US bond interest rates strengthened sharply, the US dollar index approached 113, and the US two-year Treasury bond yield exceeded 4.3%, approaching the previous high.
At the same time, non-US currencies depreciated significantly, and offshore RMB depreciated below 7.13. However, crude oil has seen a sharp rise. Last night, Brent crude oil futures rose 4.27%, and rebounded more than 15% this week, mainly because of the sharp reduction in production of OPEC .
However, don’t be too pessimistic. As of Friday, the increase in the major global stock market indexes was still positive. Although the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened again in the second half of the week, it was not as exaggerated as before the festival, and the market’s pessimism eased compared to before the festival. In fact, the plunge in US stocks is not entirely due to strong employment data. The crash of US chip giant AMD caused a sharp decline in technology stock is also an important reason.
On October 6th local time, US chip giant AMD predicted in its latest announcement that revenue in the third quarter of 2022 will be approximately US$5.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%, far lower than the previous estimate of US$6.71 billion, exacerbating market concerns about the prospects of the entire chip industry.
The decline in performance of US technology giants is an inevitable result of the global economic recession, and US stocks will still go through a stage of profit-sharing. The impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on the US economy is not linear, but lagging, and it is quantitative change to qualitative change. At a certain stage, the US economic indicators will suddenly collapse across the board. This is a hard landing, and the Fed will turn to a rate cut again.
