In the third quarter of 2022, under the bottom line of the policy of "housing for living, not for speculation", the central government continued to support local governments in optimizing real estate policies. On July 28, Central Political Bureau meeting proposed "to implement policies based on the city and make full use of the toolbox,...to strengthen the responsibilities of local governments, ensure the delivery of buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood"; since the end of August, . The Standing Committee of the State Council repeatedly proposed to allow local governments to flexibly use credit and other policies to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs; at the end of September, Central Bank , China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission , the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and commissions frequently released favorable policies to stabilize the market and expectations. At the local level, in September, the pace of implementation of policies based on cities in various places has accelerated, and policies in some key first- and second-tier cities have been followed up to further stabilize market expectations. According to China Index Monitoring, about 200 provinces and cities have issued more than 300 policies in the third quarter, but due to factors such as the traditional off-season of sales, the fermentation of "supply cutoff" incidents and high temperature weather, neither the supply and demand ends of the real estate market have recovered significantly. The traditional "Golden Nine" performance was lower than expected, and the overall policy effect is not obvious.
In the fourth quarter, it is expected that with the stable recovery of the macro economy, the continuous advancement of "protecting housing for housing", and related measures such as reducing mortgage interest rates and tax exemption, home buyers' home purchase sentiment will be restored, and the real estate market is also expected to stabilize at the bottom, but weak expectations and uncertainty of the epidemic are still key factors affecting market recovery. Real estate companies are expected to remain cautious in investing in land acquisition, and the land market may continue to be sluggish. For enterprises, it is crucial to actively grasp the policy and market window period, actively market and collect payments, and at the same time seize the opportunity of "securing the delivery of the building" and consolidating their own brand.
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Summary of the situation of China's real estate market in the third quarter of 2022
(I)Price level: New and second-hand houses in 10 cities in the third quarter of 2022 House prices fell month-on-month in each month, and the housing price trend was sluggish
Figure: From January 2020 to September 2022, the average price and month-on-month changes of new residential buildings in 100 cities
Data source: Chinese index data CREIS
New residential buildings in 100 cities, in the third quarter of 2022, the price trend was weak. According to China Real Estate Index System Hundred Cities Price Index , the cumulative price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities rose by 0.12% in the first three quarters of 2022, the lowest level since 2015; among which the cumulative price of prices fell by 0.03%. In September, the average price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities was 16,200 yuan/square meter, down 0.02% month-on-month, and has been falling for three consecutive months.
From the number of cities with rise and fall . Since 2022, the monthly monthly decline in the number of new residential housing prices in 100 cities has remained at a high level. In September, the number of newly built residential prices in 100 cities fell month-on-month to 56 cities, an increase of 23 from the same period in 2021.
Figure: From June 2020 to September 2022, the price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities fell month-on-month change in the number of cities
Data source: Middle Index According to CREIS
12 cities second-hand residential , according to the China Real Estate Index System Hundred Cities Price Index, the cumulative price of second-hand residential 100 cities fell by 0.18% in the first three quarters of 2022, of which 0.35% fell in the third quarter, an increase of 0.34 percentage points from the second quarter. Affected by factors such as increasing downward pressure on the economy and repeated epidemics in many places, market expectations have gradually weakened. Since May, the prices of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities have continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline has gradually expanded. In September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 15,970 yuan/square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.13%.
From the number of cities with rise and fall . Since 2022, the monthly monthly decline in second-hand residential prices in 100 cities has been on the rise overall.From February to August, the number of cities with second-hand housing prices in 100 cities gradually increased from 45 to 74, and the number of cities with a decline in September was 71, an increase of 28 from the same period in 2021.
(II) Transaction scale: In the third quarter, the activity of commercial housing transactions in key cities was insufficient, and the year-on-year decline in transaction area in September was still more than 20%. The "Golden September" was poor
Under the combined influence of factors such as weak home buyers' expectations and traditional off-season, the activity of the national real estate market continued to be sluggish. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, from January to August 2022, the national commercial housing sales area was 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%, and the sales of commercial housing was 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 26.8% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 30.3% year-on-year. In August, affected by the low base, the sales area and amount of commercial housing both fell by about 20% in a single month, narrowing by 6.3 and 8.3 percentage points respectively from July.
Figure: Since 2019, the monthly transaction area trend of newly built commercial housing in 100 representative cities
Data source: Chinese index data CREIS
In the third quarter, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities decreased by nearly 30% year-on-year, and the transaction scale was the lowest level since 2015, and the market adjustment trend has not changed. According to preliminary statistics from the China Index, in the first three quarters of 2022, the average monthly transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 100 key cities was about 31.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1%, and the overall market sentiment was relatively low. In the third quarter, the market transaction activity did not improve significantly. The average monthly transaction area of commercial housing in key cities was 32.77 million square meters, the lowest level in the same period in recent years, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%, and a slight increase of 2.9% month-on-month. Among them, in July, affected by the traditional off-season of sales, slowdown in supply, and the " off-selling " incident, the market activity decreased significantly, and the transaction area of commercial housing fell by more than 30% year-on-year, from increase to decrease month-on-month. Market sentiment continued to be sluggish in August, and the transaction area of commercial housing in key cities decreased year-on-month, but the decline in low base narrowed compared with that in July. As September begins, according to preliminary statistics, the transaction area of key 100 cities increased slightly month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline was still more than 20%. The performance of the "Golden Nine" was lower than expected.
Figure: Since 2020, the monthly transaction area of newly built commercial housing in each echelon represents the city, year-on-year trend of the year-on-year
Figure: Since 2021, the monthly transaction area of commercial housing in the city, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta represents the city, year-on-year trend of the year-on-year
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
Look at each echelon city . In the first three quarters, the transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier cities decreased by 24.4% year-on-year, the transaction area of commercial housing in second-tier cities decreased by 39.0% year-on-year, and the transaction area of commercial housing in third- and fourth-tier cities decreased by 39.2% year-on-year.
In the third quarter, the transaction area of commercial housing in each tier representative cities decreased year-on-year, of which first-tier cities fell by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of more than 30 percentage points from the second quarter, and turned year-on-year; second-tier representative cities fell the largest year-on-year, at 33.5%, mainly due to the large year-on-year decline in Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Tianjin and other places with larger market sizes in second-tier cities, with Chongqing falling by more than 60% year-on-year; third- and fourth-tier representative cities fell by 24.2% year-on-year.
in terms of region. In the third quarter, the transaction scale of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta remained low overall, among which Yangtze River Delta represents the year-on-year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in urban areas by nearly 30%, and the absolute scale is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The market activity in cities such as Changzhou , Wuxi and Wuhu was obviously insufficient, and the transaction area of commercial housing decreased by more than 50% year-on-year; the Shanghai market continued to recover, and the transaction area of commercial housing increased by about 50% year-on-year in the third quarter. Pearl River Delta represents the city's commercial residential transaction area in the third quarter decreased by 16.1% year-on-year, while Zhuhai's year-on-year decline exceeded 50%; Zhaoqing , Shenzhen and Huizhou and other cities also fell by more than 20% year-on-year; Dongguan , driven by policies, market activity has increased since July, and the transaction area in the third quarter increased by 22.4% year-on-year.
Figure: Since 2019, the monthly transaction area trend of second-hand residential buildings in 15 representative cities
Data source: Chinese index data CREIS
Second-hand residential buildings, the market sentiment in the third quarter slightly recovered. Under the low base, the transaction area in key cities increased year-on-year in August. From January to August 2022, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand residential buildings in 15 representative cities was 68.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.9%. Looking at each month, the activity of second-hand housing in key cities continued to rebound in July, with a monthly transaction area of about 10.95 million square meters, the highest since the beginning of this year, and the year-on-year decline narrowed by more than 10 percentage points. In August, 10.49 million square meters of second-hand housing transactions in 15 representative cities were sold, a slight decrease of 4.2% month-on-month. Affected by the low base, it turned from a decrease to a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing, Guangzhou, Dalian and Qingdao all rebounded month-on-month, and the market activity increased. The recent increase in second-hand housing activity in hot cities has benefited from the driving force of local optimization policies. On the other hand, under the influence of the "supply cut off" incident, home buyers' preference for second-hand housing has also increased.
(III) Supply and demand relationship: In the third quarter, the supply scale of key cities decreased, and the short-term inventory and clearance cycle were both at a high level
The year-on-year decline in the newly started housing area expanded, the year-on-year decline in the completed area narrowed, and the short-term marginal improvement was achieved. Under the continued sluggishness of the trading market and the continued pressure on corporate funds, the company's willingness to start work is still insufficient. From January to August 2022, the new housing construction area nationwide was 850 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 37.2%. In August, the area of newly started housing construction fell by 45.7% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline has exceeded 40% for five consecutive months. From January to August, the national housing construction area was 8.69 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. The national housing completion area was 370 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%. The completed area of housing in August decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 33.5 percentage points from July. With the further implementation and promotion of the "maintenance and delivery" measures, the completion process of real estate companies has improved, and the completion has undergone marginal restoration.
Figure: The monthly supply area trend of commercial housing in 50 representative cities since 2019
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
Affected by factors such as market sentiment and epidemic control, the supply rhythm of key cities in the third quarter was not significantly improved, and the newly-pended listing area decreased by more than 40% year-on-year. According to preliminary statistics, in the first three quarters of 2022, the average monthly newly approved commercial residential area in 50 key cities was 17.63 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1%. Among them, real estate companies launched weakly in the third quarter, with an average monthly newly approved area of commercial housing in 50 representative cities being 18.89 million square meters, the lowest level in the same period in recent years, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, and a month-on-month decrease of 6.3%. Specifically, the pace of corporate launch in July slowed down significantly, representing that the newly approved listing area in cities was about 16.1 million square meters, from increase to decrease month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 51.0%. Since August, the market supply has improved slightly. In September, the supply scale continued to grow month-on-month, but under the high base, the newly-published listing area of 50 representative cities fell by nearly 50% year-on-year.
From the perspective of sales and supply ratio, the overall performance of 50 key cities in the third quarter was less than demand. According to preliminary statistics, in the first three quarters of 2022, the sales and supply ratio of commercial housing in 50 representative cities was 1.16. In the third quarter, real estate companies were insufficient to promote the market, and the significant shrinkage on the supply side led to a short-term market supply of less than demand, and the sales and supply ratio of commercial housing was 1.10.
Figure: Since 2017, the saleable area and clearance cycle of commercial housing in 50 representative cities has been weak since 2017, and the saleable inventory is stable at a relatively high level, and the clearance cycle is more than 15 months. As of the end of August, the available sale area of commercial housing in 50 representative cities was 372.16 million square meters, which was at a relatively high level since 2017, and the overall scale fell by 0.8% from the end of the second quarter. In terms of clearing cycle, as of the end of August, based on the average monthly sales area in the past six months, the short-term inventory clearing cycle was 17.5 months, a shorter than 1.1 month from the end of the second quarter. Among them, the short-term inventory clearance cycle in first-tier cities is 13.8 months, the second-tier cities represent the clearance cycle in second-tier cities is 16.6 months, the short-term inventory is still in a reasonable range, and the third- and fourth-tier cities represent the clearance cycle in second-tier cities is 22.1 months, and the market inventory liquidation pressure is relatively high.
(IV) Land supply and demand: The scale of residential land launch in the third quarter was the lowest level in the same period in the past decade, and the transaction floor price rose structurally
Figure: The transaction area of various land and residential land in 300 cities across the country in each quarter from 2011 to 2022 changed year-on-year
Data source: Chinese index data CREIS
In the downward trend of the real estate market, and the funds of real estate companies are under pressure, local governments' promotion efforts continued to slow down in the third quarter. According to China Index data, in the first three quarters of 2022, a total of 470 million square meters of residential land was launched in 300 cities across the country, a year-on-year decrease of 41.9%, of which 180 million square meters were launched in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 40.9%, and the absolute scale was at the lowest level since 2011. In terms of transactions of , in the first three quarters of 2022, 330 million square meters of residential land transactions in 300 cities across the country were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 44.7%, and the land transfer fee was 2.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.0%. Among them, the transaction area in the third quarter decreased by 20.3% year-on-year, and the land transfer fee stopped falling year-on-year.
Figure: In each quarter of 2016-2022, the average floor price and average premium rate of residential land transactions in 300 cities across the country
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
Floor price, in the third quarter, local governments continued to increase the supply of high-quality plots, and the floor price of residential land transactions rose structurally, but the land auction performance in most cities is still relatively low, and the premium rate is at a low level. In the first three quarters of 2022, the transaction floor price of residential land in 300 cities across the country was 6,441 yuan/square meter, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. The transaction floor price in the third quarter was 7,072 yuan/square meter, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year. Premium rate , the premium rate has been at a low level since the second half of last year. In the third quarter, the premium rate of residential land transactions in 300 cities across the country was 3.2%, down 1.1 percentage points from the second quarter and 4.4 percentage points from the same period last year.
Figure: Supply and demand for residential land in various echelons in the first three quarters of 2022
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
Follow the entire line, the supply and demand area of residential land in the third quarter both decreased year-on-year, and the transaction floor price in the first and second-tier cities rose structurally. In the first three quarters of 2022, the supply and demand for residential land in all tier cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the year-on-year decline in the area was about 40%; Transaction end , the land auction market in second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities continued to be low. At the same time, due to the weakening of land introduction, the year-on-year decline in transaction areas was nearly 50%, and the year-on-year decline in first-tier cities was also nearly 20%. In the third quarter, local governments still lacked their willingness to promote land, and the year-on-year decline in residential land in all tier cities was more than 30%; in terms of transactions, the transaction area in first-tier cities increased year-on-year, while the year-on-year decline in second-tier cities decreased slightly, and the year-on-year decline in third- and fourth-tier cities exceeded 30%. price , first- and second-tier cities have increased the supply of high-quality plots. In the third quarter, the floor price of residential land transactions rose structurally by 63.1% and 21.1% respectively. The market in third- and fourth-tier cities continued to adjust. The land market rebounded in the downward period, and the transaction floor price still fell by more than 20% year-on-year.
Table: Release of residential land in 22 cities (unit: 10,000 square meters)
Note: Shenyang, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Changsha and Changchun did not issue three batches of land announcements in 2022.
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
From the land auction situation in the two concentrations, 22 cities completed the second batch of land auctions in 2022 in the third quarter, and more than half have launched three batches of land plots. Overall, the pace of land supply for the second batch continued to slow down, and the overall launch area was basically the same as the first batch. Compared with the second batch last year, the overall land supply scale of 22 cities decreased by 58%. Specific cities, the scale of land supply in the second batch of Nanjing and Qingdao increased by more than 100% compared with the first batch, and the growth rate of Wuxi, Shenzhen and Chongqing also exceeded 50%. Most of the areas of launch in other cities decreased, while the decline rate of Jinan, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Tianjin was about 50%. Overall, the first batch of land auctions among the 22 cities have stronger confidence in land supply, such as Shenzhen, , Xiamen , and Changsha, the second batch of land supply have all been increased. Among the first batch of low-temperature cities, except for Qingdao, the land supply scale of Tianjin and Jinan have both shrunk significantly. In addition, as of September 30, 17 of the 22 cities issued three batch announcements, a decrease in the overall volume compared with the third batch last year, but the decline narrowed; the area launched by the second batch increased, with Wuhan, Hefei and Shanghai increasing by more than 50%.
Table: Transaction status of centralized land supply in the second batch of 22 cities (unit: 10,000 square meters, percentage points)
Note: Only 4 residential land was sold in the first batch of Shenyang in 2022; only 1 residential land was sold in the first batch of Changchun in 2022.
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
transaction area, the transaction area of the second batch of centralized land supply in 22 cities increased slightly compared with the first batch, and the urban market popularity differentiated significantly. As of the end of September, all 22 cities have completed the second batch of auctions, with the transaction area slightly increasing by 8% compared with the first batch, a decrease of more than 30% from the second batch last year. The market sentiment in some cities has been slightly restored, and the overall failure rate of withdrawal is better than the first batch. Among the three batches, 12 cities including Beijing, Hangzhou, Hefei, Qingdao, Xiamen, Wuxi, etc. completed land transfers. Among them, 8 of the 19 plots in Hangzhou were auctioned to the upper limit of the land price, all 18 plots in Beijing were sold without failing, and 4 plots were auctioned to the upper limit of the land price, and the popularity of auctions in hot cities was still there; Qingdao launched 33 plots, 3 plots were sold without failing, and 28 plots were sold at the lowest price, and all the plots were sold at the lowest price, and the sentiment of land auctions was still low.
In addition, from the perspective of the two concentrated land auction policies, in the second batch, Qingdao adjusted the land supply structure to improve land quality, and at the same time cancelled the construction of property rights-based talent apartments to increase the enthusiasm of real estate companies to participate in the auction; Shanghai and Guangzhou increased the land supply in the core area, Hangzhou increased the sales price limit of some plots, Wuhan optimized the rental and construction methods, and optimized the proportion of commercial offices built in residential land. Among the three batches, the trend of land auction rules continued, Wuhan adjusted the margin ratio of land, and Nanjing did not set up unfinished price limits. In addition, many cities have increased land supply batches. For example, Wuxi and Suzhou have issued four batches of land announcements. Wuhan plans to provide four batches, five batches and six batches of centralized land supply from September to November.
(V) Development Investment: The amount of real estate development investment decreased by more than 10% in a single month for two consecutive months, and the funds in place for real estate companies decreased significantly year-on-year
National real estate development investment decreased year-on-year, and the monthly investment in August fell by more than 13% year-on-year. From January to August 2022, the national real estate development investment was 9.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%. Among them, the investment in residential development from January to August was 6.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, accounting for 75.8% of real estate development investment.As the third quarter entered the decline in development investment amount increased significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% in July and a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% in August, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from July, and corporate investment confidence is still weak.
Real estate companies' funds fell year-on-year. From January to August 2022, the funds in place for real estate development companies were 10.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0%. Among all sources of funds, only foreign capital has maintained year-on-year growth, while the year-on-year decline in domestic loans, deposits, prepayments and personal mortgage loans has narrowed.
China's real estate market trend outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022
(I) Economic environment: The effectiveness of policies to stabilize the economy is expected to continue to be released, GDP is expected to continue to recover, and there is still room for improvement in the fourth quarter of macroeconomic policies
Since this year, my country's macroeconomics has faced major risks and challenges. GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter, and only increased by 2.5% in the first half of the year. In the third quarter, the global economic growth slowed down, the risk of stagflation increased, and external uncertainties continued to increase. Coupled with the spread of epidemics in many places in China, the downward pressure on my country's economic operation remained unabated. A package of policies to stabilize the economy continued to be implemented in the third quarter. The central government continued to increase the implementation of 's prudent monetary policy. In August, the central bank cut interest rates again, further reducing the financing costs of enterprises and residents. The national economy recovered slightly in the third quarter. Under the low base in August, the overall economic indicators of consumption, investment and industrial production improved. Among them, fixed asset investment increased steadily due to infrastructure investment, but real estate development investment continued to decline, which had a certain drag on the recovery of the national economy. At the same time, due to the reduction of foreign demand, the export data in August fell significantly compared with the previous period. Overall, . The current economy continues to recover and develop, but the recovery momentum is relatively slow, and the foundation for the steady economic operation is not solid.
In the short term, the package of economic stabilization policies introduced in the early stage will gradually be implemented and effective. Coupled with the low base of the same period last year, the overall macroeconomic economy will continue to recover in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate may accelerate. However, affected by the weakening of foreign demand, exports in the fourth quarter face great pressure, the growth rate may continue to decline, and domestic demand as a whole is also weak. Macroeconomic policies still need to continue to work hard. The central bank continues to promote the market-oriented reform of interest rate to help the economy stabilize and recover.
(II) Policy environment: The bottom line of "housing for living, not speculation" has not changed. At the end of September, the central government continued to issue major favorable policies. In the fourth quarter, various regions will continue to increase their efforts in implementing policies based on cities. In the third quarter of 2022, the central government insisted on the positioning of "housing for living, not speculation" and remained unchanged. On July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee set the tone for real estate policies, and "stabilizing the real estate market" has become an important direction for policy optimization in the second half of the year. All ministries and commissions actively responded to the central government's requirements and accelerated the implementation of relevant measures to stabilize the market. The central bank once again lowered the LPR for more than 5 years. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the central bank guaranteed the delivery of specific projects through the policy bank special loan method; the regulatory authorities provided liquidity support to real estate companies through designated state-owned enterprise guarantees and underwriting of RMB bonds for demonstration real estate companies, providing liquidity support to real estate companies; the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced the implementation of phased adjustments to differentiated housing credit policies, and some cities can lower or cancel the lower limit of the first housing loan interest rate, and at the same time lower the interest rate of the first housing provident fund loan by 0.15 percentage points; the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation support residents to improve housing conditions and give taxpayers qualified personal income tax refund preferential treatment.
Figure: Since 2022, the frequency of measures implemented in various places issuing cities
Table: Comparison of the frequency of major policy types issued in the third quarter
Source: Comprehensive compilation of local governments with more autonomy. According to China Index Monitoring, about 200 provinces and cities have issued more than 300 policies in the third quarter. Among them, the frequency of implementation of policies in various places is slightly slower from July to August, and the pace of policy optimization in September has accelerated again. From the perspective of city types , hot cities in the third quarter increased their policy optimization efforts, both Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were involved; second-tier cities optimized regulatory measures from multiple angles, and gradually improved the policy environment of the real estate market. policy involves content In addition to optimizing the purchase restriction policy, reducing the down payment ratio, increasing the provident fund amount, issuing housing purchase subsidies , reducing the sales restriction period, and providing financial support to real estate companies, some cities have also continued to improve policy toolboxes, such as the housing support policy for multiple children, the provident fund purchase policy of "one person buying a house, the whole family helper", the leasing restrictions, the transfer of second-hand houses with deposit, and support for centralized housing purchases. Specifically:
. Many cities continue to relax purchase restrictions and extend to hot cities. html At the end of August, Shanghai relaxed the threshold for non-registered talents in the Lingang New Area. In September, the frequency and intensity of purchase restrictions in second-tier cities were issued significantly. Nearly ten cities including Tianjin, Suzhou, Jinan and other ten cities successively issued relevant policies, mainly covering the relaxation of the scope of purchase restrictions, the relaxation of the recognition standards for the number of houses purchased, and the lack of qualification verification required to purchase housing in non-purchase restrictions. It is worth noting that some relaxed purchase restrictions in cities such as Suzhou and Qingdao have been withdrawn, and "housing for living, not for speculation" is still the bottom line of the policy.
. Some cities optimize the "house recognition and loan recognition" standard, reduce the down payment ratio, and reduce mortgage interest rates. The down payment ratio for second-home loans in Zhengzhou and Wuhan purchase restricted areas has been reduced to 40%. The down payment for the first home without a house in Tianjin has been adjusted to a minimum of 30%, and the down payment for the second home has been adjusted to a minimum of 40%, and the "recognition of houses and loans" has been optimized to "recognition of houses and loans but not loans". In terms of mortgage interest rates, according to statistics, by the end of September, the mainstream mortgage interest rates in more than 80 cities have been as low as 4.10% for the first home and 4.90% for the second home.
. Duocheng lowered the down payment ratio of provident fund loan and increased the loan amount. Some regions support "one person's house purchase, family help" and "commercial to public". In the third quarter, Chongqing, Tianjin and other cities optimized the down payment ratio of provident fund loans, Xuzhou , Taizhou and other cities adjusted the maximum loan amount of provident fund , and Yinchuan, Shijiazhuang and other cities supported the provident fund "one-person house purchase and family help". In addition, cities such as Fuzhou, , Luoyang , support "commercial to public" loans, which will help reduce the interest expenses of loans for families who have purchased houses and reduce the pressure on repayment of loans. It is expected that cities that support the "commercial to public" policy will further expand in the future.
. Some cities adjusted their price limit policies, and "decline orders" frequently appear. In the third quarter, Guangzhou's "one house, one price" was adjusted from 6% of the original floating price of buildings to 10% and 20% of the floating price. Some areas such as Bazhong City , Gaoxian and other areas have issued limit orders, placing requirements on the lower limit of pre-sales or transaction prices. The different real estate market environments in different places have led to differences in price limit requirements. However, overall, the price limit policies implemented by some cities have no longer adapted to the current market situation, and restoring market-oriented pricing may be more conducive to achieving the "three stability" goals.
. Related policies for second-hand housing have been introduced one after another, and the "security transfer" and "serial orders" business have become the focus. html In September, Wuxi, Hefei, Guangzhou and other cities promoted the "security transfer" model for second-hand houses. According to statistics, as of the end of September, more than ten cities have issued similar policies this year. At the same time, Beijing has implemented parallel processing of "serial orders" for existing housing transactions, promoting the continuous expansion of relevant policies for second-hand housing transactions.
. Since this year, the central government has repeatedly emphasized "guaranteeing and stabilizing people's livelihood". "guaranteeing and paying for buildings" has become the key content of stabilizing the real estate market at present. After the high-level meeting set the tone, relevant measures and supporting funds of local governments have been accelerated. In late August, a special loan of 200 billion yuan for "guaranteeing and paying for buildings" was launched. In September, National Development Bank has paid relevant funds to Shenyang, and the first batch of special loans of 5 billion yuan in Zhengzhou have also been issued. In September, many places held a special meeting on "protecting and subsidizing the property" to effectively promote the implementation of the "protecting and subsidizing the property" initiative to restore home buyers' confidence in buying a property.
htmlIn September, the State Council special meeting continued to emphasize that "the use of multiple tools in the policy toolbox according to the city". It is expected that the demand-side policies in various places will continue to improve in the short term, and reducing the cost of buying a house and lowering the threshold for buying a house are still important directions. In the fourth quarter, the premise for policy relaxation in various places will still adhere to the positioning of "housing for living, not for speculation". It is expected that the purchase restrictions in first- and second-tier hot cities may be gradually relaxed in the form of "prioritizing the relaxation of purchase restrictions in suburban areas". The loan restriction policy may be further optimized, especially the relaxation of the "housing and loan recognition" policy will help release the demand for improvement, while more administrative restriction policies in third- and fourth-tier cities are expected to be completely cancelled. As the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission phased the adjustment of differentiated housing credit policies, more cities will adjust the lower limit of first-home mortgage interest rates in the fourth quarter based on their actual conditions, which will help promote the timely entry of wait-and-see demand into the market and drive the increase in market activity in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, the fourth quarter is still a key node for "guaranteeing and subsidizing the building". Previously, the central bank's regular meeting in the third quarter emphasized again that "promoting the accelerated implementation and use of special loans for "guaranteeing and subsidizing the building" and appropriately increasing efforts as needed." The State Council meeting clearly stated that "implementing the policy for guaranteeing and subsidizing the building". As special loans are further implemented, solutions to the suspension projects in various places will continue to be implemented, and the "guaranteeing and subsidizing" work is expected to make more substantial progress. In addition, relevant policies on second-hand housing in various places have been followed one after another, aiming to improve process efficiency, open up transaction chains, facilitate the public and improve efficiency to promote the release of demand for basic and improved housing. The short-term optimization policies for second-hand housing may be further expanded.
(III) Market trend: It is expected that the year-on-year decline in sales scale in the fourth quarter will gradually narrow, and the marginal improvement of investment
The current demand side of the real estate market is weak. The reason is that there are both medium- and long-term factors and the superposition effect of short-term factors. From medium- and long-term factors, the momentum of release of housing demand in my country has weakened: First, residents' basic housing needs have been met. The per capita housing area in my country has increased from less than 20 square meters to about 40 square meters. The urban housing stock exceeds 35 billion square meters, and the average household is close to 1.1 housing units, and the basic housing needs of residents have been met.
Second, the population size dividend is coming to an end, and urbanization slows down. The national population in 2021 was 1.41 billion, an increase of 480,000 from the end of last year. The annual birth population was 10.62 million, with a birth rate of only 7.52‰. Both the birth population and the birth rate were the lowest since 1949; the urbanization rate of the permanent population has reached 64.7%.
, residents leverage ratio has been high, and in the future, further leverage has limited space. According to the central bank data, the leverage ratio of my country's household sector in 2021 was 72.2% (only 18.2% in 2008), which is close to the average level of developed economies.
short-term factors, first, the repeated epidemic situation in many places in China, changes in the international political situation, Federal continues to raise interest rates, etc., has brought great challenges to the recovery of my country's macroeconomics, expectations of unstable income of residents have been significantly enhanced, and under the awareness of risk prevention, the release of housing demand is more cautious; Second, epidemic prevention and control, previous high temperature weather, etc. Second, epidemic prevention and control, previous high temperature weather, etc. has led to the hinderment of the release of housing demand; Third, "supply cut off" incidents in many places have frequently occurred in , and the project delivery problem has further weakened the confidence of home buyers in buying a property; Fourth, various places have taken measures based on cities, but High-frequency and small-step optimization policies in hot cities have become a major feature of this year's policy end . Home buyers still have expectations for future policy relaxation, resulting in a heavy wait-and-see sentiment for home purchases. In addition, the withdrawal of policies in some cities has also had an adverse impact on market sentiment. In addition, since August, companies have increased their marketing efforts, lowered prices and exchanged prices for volume in many places, further aggravated the wait-and-see sentiment of home buyers.
Medium- and long-term housing demand release momentum weakens, resulting in the current repair of the real estate industry requiring more favorable factors to be driven by. In the short term, the trend of the real estate market still depends on the restoration of the macro economy, the optimization of regulatory policies, the adjustment direction of epidemic prevention and control measures, and the implementation of "security and delivery" measures.
In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the macroeconomic recovery will be better than in the third quarter, the optimization rhythm and intensity of policy optimization in hot cities may be further increased, and the "protecting and subsidizing buildings" measures in various places are also expected to be implemented and effective. At the same time, at the end of September, the central government successively released major favorable policies, which is expected to drive market expectations to improve. Therefore, market sentiment in the fourth quarter may be restored. Without exceeding expectations, the sales scale of the real estate market is expected to gradually bottom out and stabilize, mainly manifested in the slowdown in sales prices and the narrowing of year-on-year decline in sales area. However, it is worth noting that industry confidence is still at a low level. With the continued epidemic prevention and control measures, market confidence will be difficult to fundamentally reverse in the short term. It is expected that the year-on-year decline in the national commercial housing sales area in the fourth quarter may still be around 15%, and the year-on-year decline may be around 20%.
Figure: Since January 2022, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier and second-tier cities has been indicative of commercial housing for the first-tier and second-tier cities has been year-on-year
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
June city, the market differentiation trend in each tier city in the fourth quarter may continue. is expected to continue to recover in first-tier cities of , Beijing and Shanghai continue to recover. After Guangzhou’s policies are put into force, the market may gradually stabilize, and the scale of new home transactions in Shenzhen will slowly rebound, but the year-on-year decline may still be relatively obvious. Second-tier cities In the second-tier cities, as the policies of hot second-tier cities are further optimized and relaxed, the market activity of these cities is expected to increase. For most second-tier cities, market confidence will still take time to restore. - and fourth-tier cities Overall market pressure is still relatively high, and the market sentiment in third- and fourth-tier cities in hot spots in the eastern region may gradually improve, such as Foshan, Dongguan and other cities.
Due to the overall continued adjustment trend of the sales end, enterprises lack willingness to start construction, coupled with factors such as significant land shrinkage and large financial pressure on enterprises, it is expected that the year-on-year decrease of new construction area will be nearly 40%. In addition, under the requirements of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings", completion is expected to continue to be restored, which will drive marginal improvement in investment to a certain extent, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of investment throughout the year.
2022 Brand real estate companies business strategy analysis
Figure: Cumulative sales and growth rate of TOP100 real estate companies from 2021 to January to September 2022
Table: Houses in the first three quarters of 2022 The number and average sales of enterprises are
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
In the third quarter, real estate companies flexibly formulate different sales strategies according to different project types and market changes. Since August, companies have increased their marketing efforts and exchanged prices for volume frequently, but the overall effect is not obvious.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the average sales of the TOP100 real estate companies was 54.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month; among them, 15 real estate companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, a decrease of 12 from the same period last year; 100 real estate companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 48 from the same period last year. The average equity sales of the TOP100 real estate companies was 38.68 billion yuan, and the average equity sales area was 2.536 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 46.9% and 50.5% respectively.
Land acquisition , in the first three quarters of 2022, the total land acquisition amount of the top 100 enterprises was 1047.8 billion yuan, and the land acquisition scale decreased by 51.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, and maintained a narrowing trend for four consecutive months. The threshold value of the TOP100 is 3.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3 billion yuan from the same period last year. The total amount of land acquisition for the TOP100 enterprises' bidding and auction rights accounted for 43.5% of the land transfer fees of 300 cities across the country.
Table: The proportion of land acquisition amount of enterprises in the first batch and second batch of 22 cities in 2022 (city level)
Note: One and two plots of land were sold in the first batch and the second batch in Changchun, and both were won by private enterprises.
Data source: Chinese index dataCREIS
Land acquisition companies type . Since the beginning of this year, the 22 cities have still mainly central state-owned enterprises and local state-owned assets. Local state-owned assets in some cities have obvious support, and private enterprises are generally cautious in acquiring land. According to China Index data, the amount of land acquisition of central state-owned enterprises + local state-owned assets in the second batch of 22 cities in 2022 accounts for more than 80%, an increase of about 10 percentage points from the first batch, while private enterprises account for only 16%. With the continuous adjustment of the market, private enterprises have obvious pressure on their capital, and their willingness to acquire land is still insufficient.
Figure: Issuance of overseas bonds and credit bonds in the real estate industry from 2020 to 2022.9
Data source: Comprehensively compiled by China Index Academy
In September 2022, real estate companies did not issue overseas bonds and only financed by issuing credit bonds. The issuance scale of credit bonds was 36.805 billion yuan, which was affected by the sharp decline in issuance in the same period last year, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. In terms of financing costs, the financing cost of credit bonds has dropped slightly, with the average interest rate being 3.21%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16 percentage points.
Affected by regulatory support for credit enhancement bond issuance, many private enterprises successfully issued medium-term notes this month. At the same time, China Bond Credit Enhancement provided irrevocable joint and several liability guarantees, with a total financing of 4.7 billion yuan. There are also many real estate companies actively communicating with China Bonds. In the future, the second batch of real estate companies are expected to issue China Bonds to increase guaranteed medium notes.
Table: Statistics of the balance of bonds that mature within one year
Data source: China Index Academy comprehensively compiled
Debt balance due within one year is 1025.82 billion yuan. As of September 30, 2022, the total balance of bonds to be repaid by real estate companies was 3072.39 billion yuan; the total amount of bonds due within one year was 1025.82 billion yuan, of which the balance of credit bonds was 649.14 billion yuan and the balance of overseas bonds was 376.67 billion yuan. Overall, debt due in the fourth quarter is at a relatively low level, and corporate financial pressure may ease slightly.
At present, the real estate market is still in a period of deep adjustment, but with the introduction of a number of major favorable central policies at the end of September, the real estate policy environment has been significantly improved. With the arrival of the traditional "Silver October" of the real estate market, the optimization of policies in hot cities may drive the local market to gradually recover. Enterprises should grasp the policy and market window period and actively promote cash collection. In terms of investment layout, enterprises need to continue to deepen their efforts in valuable cities and sectors and seize structural opportunities. At the same time, the industry has entered the era of "delivery power" competition, and enterprises need to seize the opportunity of "guaranteeing delivery of buildings", enhance brand influence, and achieve high-quality development.
