Many people call 2021 a year of "turning" in the property market, and the reason is simple. First of all, in terms of regulatory policies, this year, we have ushered in the financial level regulation for the first time, including "three red lines" to limit the debt ratio of real estate companies. The "loan restriction order" sets an upper limit on the proportion of bank real estate-related debt, tightening the overall infusion of funds into the real estate market. The second is the "two concentrations" of land related to real estate, which effectively reduces the premium rate of land auctions and indirectly reduces the land acquisition costs of real estate companies. Finally, there are direct restrictions on housing prices, such as "second-hand housing guidance prices" and a series of measures such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's interview with cities where housing prices have risen too quickly.
Under such a general trend, housing prices have indeed fallen back. According to the housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the average housing price in China has dropped from 11,220 yuan/㎡ at the beginning of the year to 9,749 yuan/㎡ in October, a drop of 13.1%, and has fallen back to the housing price level in 2019. In addition, during the "Golden September and Silver October" period of the real estate market, among the 70 typical cities, the number of new housing prices increased from 43 to 52, and the number of second-hand housing prices fell from 53 to 64, accounting for as high as 91%, indicating that the "general decline" trend has been formed.
Not only that, according to the views of some experts and scholars, such as Yan Yuejin, the research director of Yiju Real Estate, the new housing market still faces "large" price reduction pressure in the last two months of the year. Judging from the past cycle of the real estate market, it will generally continue to fall for 8 months. economist Wang Tao also gave a similar prediction: With tightening of the real estate market regulation, long-term mechanisms such as plus real estate tax are accelerated, and real estate activities will continue to decline in the fourth quarter of this year and next year. In other words, according to the views of these experts and scholars, the property market will continue to decline in the rest of this year, which means that the average housing price in 2021 is expected to be lower than in 2020, reaching the "first decline" that has never happened in the past 10 years. This is why many talents call 2021 a year of the "turning point" of the property market.
The real estate market ushered in its second "reversal"? The "tail" market has appeared
As time comes to December, according to past experience, the mid-month time is the time when the National Bureau of Statistics announced the housing price data last month, but some institutions have released the housing price data and survey reports for November. Not long ago, First Financial News published the "The "tail" market appears! How long can the real estate market in many places continue to recover? 》 According to statistics from the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission, as of November 29, 11,021 second-hand residential units were signed online in Beijing that month, which was warmer than the market that fell below 10,000 units last month. From November 22 to November 28, 2,941 second-hand residential units were signed online in Beijing, an increase of 301 units compared with the previous week, an increase of 11.4% month-on-month.
In addition, according to statistics from Zhuge House Search Data Research Center, in the 48th week of 2021, the transaction volume of second-hand residential units in 10 key cities was 11,399 units, an increase of 25.39% month-on-month. Except for Shenzhen, the other nine cities all rebounded, with Chengdu being the first to increase, with 2,355 units sold weekly, up 107.67% month-on-month, while Nanjing and Qingdao respectively rose 47.30% and 28.72% month-on-month respectively. In terms of the new housing market, according to Zhuge House Search Monitoring, in the 48th week of 2021, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in 15 key cities was 28,481 units, an increase of 37.12% month-on-month. Among them, Beijing, Nanjing and Chongqing rose by 28.35%, 190.96% and 185.42% respectively.
At the same time, data released by China House Price Market Network showed that in November 2021, among the more than 310 cities included in the statistics, the number of cities with month-on-month increase in housing prices was 150, and the number of cities with month-on-month decrease was 162, while the number of cities with month-on-month increase and decline in October was 120 and 195. means that the number of cities with housing prices increased by 30 month-on-month, and the number of cities with housing prices decreased by 33 month-on-month. It can be seen that compared with the complete failure of the "Golden September and Silver October" contract, the real estate market in November was still warm and cold, and the "tail" market has emerged.
Whenever this time, the most active one is naturally the real estate agent. Taking this series of data, news such as "the winter of the real estate market has passed", "the real estate market has reversed again", "the house prices will continue to rise sharply in the future", etc. The real estate agents who have been silent in my circle of friends have also begun to reprint similar articles, advising home buyers to seize the time to "buy at the bottom".It has to be said that these publicity really played a certain role, attracting many people who have not bought a house to come and ask about the authenticity.
Will housing prices continue to rise sharply in the future? The answer is obviously no. With the continuous regulation of the property market, not only the overall housing price trend has continued to shrink, but it has also continued to decline after entering the second half of the year. According to the view of real estate expert Feng Lun, for those who invest in real estate, housing prices need to remain above 9% to achieve profitability, while the overall increase in 2020 is slightly higher than 9%. But it is certain that the overall housing price this year will not only not be higher than 9%, but may even decline. Under the unexpected high pressure of "property tax", many people who invest in real estate are selling off their excess properties.
The above series of data can only explain one problem: more people buy houses. Why do more people buy houses? The reason is simple, housing prices have indeed dropped. After entering the second half of the year, we often see news that real estate companies in a certain place have lowered prices and sold, which has caused old owners to be dissatisfied with protecting their rights. Similar situations are happening in many places. Under the requirements of the "three red lines", in order to reduce their debt ratio and inventory pressure, real estate companies can only choose to reduce their price and sell their money to solve the problem. The price reduction and sell-off behavior naturally attracts many "bad-picking" home buyers, so the overall transaction volume will increase.
Don’t misjudgment of the real estate market in 2022
Some people may say that according to the mentality of the real estate market "buy up, not buy down" in the real estate market, there will only be fewer people buying a house when housing prices fall, and there will not be more. So why does the number of people who buy houses increase instead of reducing? The main reason is that the "decline limit order" has played a key role. According to public information, since the second half of the year, 23 cities have issued "decline limit order", either directly issued relevant documents or interviewed real estate companies. The purpose is to avoid malicious price cuts by real estate companies, resulting in "random declines" in housing prices.
Therefore, we should not misjudgment the property market in 2022. In the future, housing prices will neither rise or fall, but will be in a state of "differentiation" and "volatility". Why there will not be a big rise? The above article has explained that the reason why housing prices will not fall is easy to understand. In the third quarter, the central bank held many meetings, all mentioned "two maintenance": maintains the stable development of the real estate market and safeguards the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. In short, on the one hand, it is to maintain the stable development of the real estate market by regulating and preventing further surges of housing prices from rising further, and on the other hand, it is to prevent "stopping" from falling by reasonably "limiting declines" to protect consumers' legitimate rights and interests.
Therefore, the trend of urban housing prices in the future depends mainly on population mobility. For remote cities with continuous population outflow and large bubbles, housing prices may experience "stable declines". For hot cities with large population inflows and obvious housing demand, housing prices are more likely to experience "stable rises". For families who have the need to buy a house in recent years, they can choose these hot cities to buy a house. Although it cannot bring profit margins, it can at least play a certain role in preserving value.
It has to be said that these publicity really played a certain role, attracting many people who have not bought a house to come and ask about the authenticity.
Will housing prices continue to rise sharply in the future? The answer is obviously no. With the continuous regulation of the property market, not only the overall housing price trend has continued to shrink, but it has also continued to decline after entering the second half of the year. According to the view of real estate expert Feng Lun, for those who invest in real estate, housing prices need to remain above 9% to achieve profitability, while the overall increase in 2020 is slightly higher than 9%. But it is certain that the overall housing price this year will not only not be higher than 9%, but may even decline. Under the unexpected high pressure of "property tax", many people who invest in real estate are selling off their excess properties.
The above series of data can only explain one problem: more people buy houses. Why do more people buy houses? The reason is simple, housing prices have indeed dropped. After entering the second half of the year, we often see news that real estate companies in a certain place have lowered prices and sold, which has caused old owners to be dissatisfied with protecting their rights. Similar situations are happening in many places. Under the requirements of the "three red lines", in order to reduce their debt ratio and inventory pressure, real estate companies can only choose to reduce their price and sell their money to solve the problem. The price reduction and sell-off behavior naturally attracts many "bad-picking" home buyers, so the overall transaction volume will increase.
Don’t misjudgment of the real estate market in 2022
Some people may say that according to the mentality of the real estate market "buy up, not buy down" in the real estate market, there will only be fewer people buying a house when housing prices fall, and there will not be more. So why does the number of people who buy houses increase instead of reducing? The main reason is that the "decline limit order" has played a key role. According to public information, since the second half of the year, 23 cities have issued "decline limit order", either directly issued relevant documents or interviewed real estate companies. The purpose is to avoid malicious price cuts by real estate companies, resulting in "random declines" in housing prices.
Therefore, we should not misjudgment the property market in 2022. In the future, housing prices will neither rise or fall, but will be in a state of "differentiation" and "volatility". Why there will not be a big rise? The above article has explained that the reason why housing prices will not fall is easy to understand. In the third quarter, the central bank held many meetings, all mentioned "two maintenance": maintains the stable development of the real estate market and safeguards the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. In short, on the one hand, it is to maintain the stable development of the real estate market by regulating and preventing further surges of housing prices from rising further, and on the other hand, it is to prevent "stopping" from falling by reasonably "limiting declines" to protect consumers' legitimate rights and interests.
Therefore, the trend of urban housing prices in the future depends mainly on population mobility. For remote cities with continuous population outflow and large bubbles, housing prices may experience "stable declines". For hot cities with large population inflows and obvious housing demand, housing prices are more likely to experience "stable rises". For families who have the need to buy a house in recent years, they can choose these hot cities to buy a house. Although it cannot bring profit margins, it can at least play a certain role in preserving value.
