Rare earths are generally separated in an oxide state and are very rare, so they are named rare earths. Rare earth elements are the general term for the scandium, yttrium and 15 lanthanides in the periodic table.

2025/04/3022:49:06 hotcomm 1129

(Report producer/author: CITIC Construction Investment Securities, Wang Jiechao, Li Musen, Wang Xiaofang)

Rare Earth &Magnetic Materials Industry: Magnetic Materials Demand Recovery, Rare Earth Supply Grows Moderately

The discovery of rare earths began in the late 18th century, when people often referred to solid oxides that are insoluble in water as soil. Rare earths are generally separated in an oxide state and are very rare, so they are named rare earths. Rare earth elements are the general term for the scandium, yttrium and 15 lanthanides in the periodic table. In fact, rare earth elements in the ground crust are not rare, and even the lowest abundance of gluten is 200 times higher in the earth's crust than gold.

According to certain differences in the physical and chemical properties of rare earth elements and the properties of geochemical and the requirements of the separation process, researchers divided the rare earth elements into two groups: light and heavy. Since the spin direction of the new electrons on the 4f sublayer starting from gadolinium (Gd), the division of the two groups is bounded by gadolinium. Although the atomic weight of yttrium is only 89, its ion radius is closer to that of the heavy rare earth elements, so it is also classified as heavy rare earth elements because its ion radius chain rings are in the ion radius of other heavy rare earth elements. (1) light rare earth (also known as cerium group): lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), proge (Pm), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu). (2) Heavy rare earths (also known as yttrium group): gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), holmium (Ho), erbium (Er), thritillar (Tm), ytterbium (Yb), lete (Lu), scandium (Sc), yttrium (Y). Due to its special structure, rare earth elements have optical, electrical, magnetic, thermal and biological characteristics that other metal elements do not possess. Based on this, rare earth elements, their alloys and new materials are widely used in electronics, communications, energy, chemicals, aviation, military and other fields. Some areas have undergone revolutionary changes due to the application of rare earths.

rare earth prices review: demand picks up, supporting prices strengthening again

Rare earth prices have fluctuated and declined since March, and rare earth prices have strengthened again recently. Due to the interviews between the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the mentality of the upstream and downstream has been affected. Since March 2022, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, market transactions are scarce, and prices fluctuate and adjust at low prices. However, the supply constraints formed by the control of total rare earth mining and the unique irreplaceable nature have allowed this supply and demand contradiction to exist for a long time, and the value of rare earths will not change with the interview. As downstream demand gradually recovers, the prices of rare earths have rebounded in the past week. Although price elasticity weakens in the short term, we believe that the subsequent market rare earth prices are expected to maintain moderate growth.

Rare earth supply: The supply of praseodymium oxide in 2024 is expected to exceed 100,000 tons

Domestic mines: The north-south duopoly pattern is formed, and the rare earth mining and smelting control indicators are expected to rise in 2022 20%

Supply pattern is controlled by six major groups to change to the north-south duopoly pattern. The total control of rare earth mining in 2022 is expected to maintain a growth of more than 20%. Previously, my country has formed an industry pattern dominated by China Aluminum Group , Northern Rare Earth, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, China Minmetals, Guangdong Rare Earth, and Southern Rare Earth. Among them, there are only one light rare earths, , Northern rare earths, and the others are heavy rare earth companies. After this integration, according to the control indicators for the first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2022, China Rare Earth Group has a total of 29,100 tons of light rare earth mining, accounting for 32.58% of the total; the mining of medium and heavy rare earths is 7,800 tons, accounting for 67.89% of the annual total; the smelting separation is 34,600 tons, accounting for 35.58% of the annual total, and the total share does not change much from 2021. Northern Rare Earth Company has a light rare earth mining volume of 60,200 tons, an increase of 36.44% year-on-year, and the growth rate remains basically stable. Therefore, we expect the total amount of northern rare earth mining to reach 136,915 tons in 2022, and the total amount of light rare earth mining in the country will reach 183,337 tons, and the growth rate will continue to 23% in 2021. The quota for ionic rare earth mines has remained at 19,150 tons since 2018. It is expected that the quota for ionic rare earth mines in 2022 will continue this quota. Therefore, the total amount of rare earth mining in my country is expected to reach 205,813 tons in 2022, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year.

We expect that the future quota increase will mainly be concentrated in light rare earths. Based on the ratio of praseodymium-neodymium-neodymium-oxide in the mine rare earth oxide, the supply of praseodymium-neodymium-neodymium-oxide is calculated. At the same time, considering the recycling of neodymium-ferrous boron waste, the content of praseodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-neodymium-

Overseas mines: Overseas mine capacity increase is limited

Currently overseas mines include Lynas, Mountain Pass, and Iluka resources limited. Among them, the Mountain Pass production capacity is stable at 40,000 tons, which is basically full. There will be a plan to expand production after 2025, and the overall increase will be limited in the future; the Lynas production capacity is 25,000 tons, but the historical output has never exceeded 20,000 tons; according to the 2021 annual report, Iluka resources limited to produce monazole -zircon concentrate (of which monazole accounts for 20%), and the second phase of the 90% monazole concentrate project is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2022. Myanmar's rare earth supply has been reduced due to its domestic political turmoil and the impact of the epidemic. According to USGS data, Myanmar's rare earth production in 2021 was 26,000 tons. With high-intensity mining, we believe that the overall growth rate of Myanmar will be limited in the future due to environmental protection, political and other factors. Greenland rare earth mining has been boycotted by local governments, and future supply is doubtful.

Rare earth demand: low-carbon economy drives the long-term demand for high-performance magnetic materials

New energy vehicles have become a demand outlet

Magnetic materials are the key materials for new energy vehicles. magnetic material is the basic core material of key electronic components, and the application market is mainly concentrated in electronic components, components and terminal electronic complete machine products. The automobile industry is the largest and most dynamic market for magnetic materials. Magnetic materials are widely used in all aspects of automotive motors, car bodies, body chassis and information components, greatly improving the efficiency of automotive components. Magnetic materials are the core material of new energy vehicle drive motors, and the market space is huge. With the development of China's new energy vehicle industry, the high-end automotive magnetic materials and the arrival of demand trends will become new growth points in the future industry.

permanent magnet material, also known as hard magnetic material, is a material with wide hysteresis loops, high coercive force, high residual magnetism, and can maintain constant magnetism once magnetized. It has functions such as conversion, transmission, processing, storage of information and energy. It has a wide range of applications, such as electroacoustics, mineral dressing, energy, household appliances, medical and health care, automobiles, automatic control, information technology and other fields. Permanent magnet materials can be divided into: metal permanent magnet materials, ferrite permanent magnet materials, and rare earth permanent magnet materials, which are mainly used to make small magnetic components . soft magnetic material is also called flexible magnetic material. It has low coercive force, easy magnetization and demagnetization. Compared with permanent magnet materials, soft magnetic material has a high magnetic permeability. Large magnetic induction strength and high density magnetic flux can be obtained under a lower external magnetic field strength. At the same time, the coercive force is small and easy to demagnetize. In actual applications, it mainly plays a magnetic permeability role, realizes the conversion of electrical energy parameters of the circuit, and is used in many fields such as small transformers, relays, inductor cores, relays, audio and video heads, magnetic shielding covers, motor stator rotors, inductor components, etc. Soft magnetic materials mainly include metal soft magnets, ferrite soft magnets, etc.

permanent magnet material: high-performance motor core material

1) Ferrite permanent magnet material

Ferrite, also known as ferrogen oxygen or magnetic porcelain, is a non-metal magnetic material and is a composite oxide (or orthoferrate) of magnetic iron trioxide and one or more metal oxides. The magnetic force is usually 800-1000 Gauss. permanent magnet ferrite is a metal oxide with ferromagnetic nature. The resistivity of ferrite is much greater than that of metal and alloy magnetic materials, and has a higher dielectric performance. It has a higher magnetic permeability at high frequencies. Therefore, ferrite has become a widely used non-metal magnetic material in the field of high frequency and weak current. Compared with NdFeB permanent magnet materials, NdFeB has stronger magnetic properties, but the raw materials of ferrite permanent magnet materials are iron red , strontium carbonate, barium carbonate, etc., with relatively rich resources, relatively low prices, better temperature and oxidation resistance, stable performance, no need for anti-oxidation coating protection, and are often used in variable frequency home appliances, power tools, audio speakers, automobiles and other fields.

permanent magnet ferrite is still the most widely used, largest and most mainstream magnetic material. According to the Magnetic Materials Branch of the China Electronic Materials Industry Association, China's permanent magnet ferrite production has always remained above 500,000 tons in recent years, the highest in 2018 was 545,000 tons, the historical peak level; however, due to factors such as trade frictions and epidemics, it fell back to 528,000 tons in 2019 and 2020, and rebounded by 2.4% to 516,000 tons in 2021. According to statistics from the Magnetic Materials Branch of the China Electronic Materials Industry Association, global ferrite permanent magnet production enterprises are mainly distributed in China, Japan and South Korea. Japan mainly includes Hitachi , TDK Co., Ltd., etc.; South Korea mainly includes Shuangyong, South Korea Pacific, etc. my country's ferrite permanent magnet production accounts for more than 75% of the world, and production enterprises are mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Anhui, and Sichuan regions, among which Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and other places account for 61%. Most enterprises have a small production capacity scale. There are more than 340 ferrite permanent magnet material production enterprises in my country, of which about 45% have an annual production capacity of less than 1,000 tons, about 25% have an annual production capacity of 1,000-3,000 tons, about 21% have an annual production capacity of 3,000-5,000 tons, and about 20 enterprises with more than 10,000 tons, accounting for about 9%.

Automobile is the largest consumer field of permanent magnet ferrite. The main application markets of permanent magnet ferrite include motors, speakers, microwave ovens, sensors and other components. Among them, the market demand for permanent magnet ferrite accounts for about 62%, which is the largest application market for permanent magnet ferrite; by terminal classification, automobile consumption accounts for about 60%, home appliances account for 33%, and other 7%. The situation of major permanent magnet ferrite enterprises.

2) Rare Earth permanent magnet

rare earth permanent magnet material refers to a permanent magnet material made of an alloy formed by rare earth metal and transition metal through a certain process. It is an important basic material that has obvious improvements in the performance and efficiency of related products. It is a large amount of application in strategic emerging industry and has now become the largest consumer field among new rare earth materials. Rare earth permanent magnet materials have high magnetic crystal anisotropy and high saturation magnetization. They are currently the type of permanent magnet materials with the highest coercive force and the largest magnetic energy accumulation. Since its launch in the 1960s, rare earth permanent magnet materials have undergone more than 50 years of development, forming three generations of rare earth permanent magnet materials with practical value, accompanied by three major breakthroughs in magnetic properties. The first generation of rare earth permanent magnet materials are represented by SmCo5 alloy, the second generation of rare earth permanent magnet materials are represented by Sm2Co17 alloy, and the third generation of rare earth permanent magnet materials are represented by Nd2Fe14B alloy. Among them, the first and second generation rare earth permanent magnet materials are collectively called samarium-cobalt permanent magnet materials, and the third generation is collectively called NdFeB permanent magnet materials. NdFeB magnetic materials are currently well-deserved "magnetic king".

NdFeB has outstanding advantages such as small size, light weight, and strong magnetic properties. It is the best performance-price magnet material so far. Compared with traditional electro-excited winding motors, permanent magnet motor using NdFeB has obvious advantages in rotor winding power loss, motor weight and motor structure. The average power saving rate of general permanent magnet motors is as high as more than 10%, and the power saving rate of special permanent magnet motors can be as high as 15%~20%. Compared with samarium-cobalt permanent magnet materials, neodymium iron boron permanent magnet materials have great advantages in magnetic performance and production costs, and can meet the needs of large-scale and multi-special industrial production. It has now become the highest output and most widely used rare earth permanent magnet material. However, compared with ferrite permanent magnets, rare earth permanent magnet materials have disadvantages such as oxidation resistance, low temperature resistance, and high price, and are more used in wind power generation, new energy vehicles, and variable frequency home appliances.

Global rare earth magnetic material production and consumption look at China, especially the supply side. In 2020, China's rare earth permanent magnet material production and consumption accounted for 90.2% and 71.0% of the global total respectively. From 2015 to 2020, China's rare earth permanent magnet material production increased from about 134,700 tons to 196,200 tons, with a CAGR of about 7.8%. According to Frost & Sullivan, China's rare earth permanent magnet material production will reach about 284,200 tons in 2025, with a CAGR of about 7.7% from 2020 to 2025. Stimulated by the continued increase in demand in downstream industries, China's consumption of rare earth permanent magnet materials has shown a rapid growth trend.From 2015 to 2020, China's rare earth permanent magnet material consumption increased from about 103,500 tons to about 148,700 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 7.5%. According to Frost & Sullivan, consumption of rare earth permanent magnet materials may grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 8.6% in the next five years, reaching 224,700 tons in 2025, and the growth rate exceeds the overall global growth rate, among which the demand for high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnet materials will continue to increase.

policy promotes the development of neodymium iron boron permanent magnet industry. In 2013, the "Guidelines for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2011 Edition)" (revised in 2013) proposed to include "high-performance rare earth magnetic materials" in industries that are encouraged to develop; in 2015, the "High-tech Fields of High-tech Supported by Nationally" proposed to include rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing technology, preparation and application technology for high-tech fields such as rare earth materials used in high-tech fields supported by high-tech fields; in 2017, the "Three-Year Action Plan for Enhancement of Core Competitiveness in Manufacturing (2018-2020)" proposed to focus on the development of high-end rare earth functional materials; in 2021, the "Motor Energy Efficiency Improvement Plan (2021-2023)" required that the annual output of high-efficiency and energy-saving motors in 2023 will reach 170 million kilowatts, and the proportion of high-efficiency and energy-saving motors in service will reach more than 20%, but the current penetration rate of is Only single digits, huge space. There are relatively concentrated domestic manufacturers engaged in high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnet materials, most of which are listed companies, mainly including Zhongke Sanhuan , Zhenghai Magnetic Material , Jinli Permanent Magnetic , Dadixiong, Ningbo Yunsheng , Yingluohua, etc. Foreign companies mainly include Hitachi Metal, TDK, Xinyue Chemical, German VAC, etc.

Soft magnetic material: Benefiting from the rapid growth of new energy demand

Soft magnetic material is one of the most widely used and most kinds of materials among magnetic materials. The development process has gone through the process of metal soft magnetic material - ferrite soft magnetic material - amorphous soft magnetic material - nanocrystal soft magnetic material. Because of its magnetoelectric conversion function, soft magnetic material is widely used in transformers, inductors, inverters and other fields. The downstream includes power grids, new energy vehicles, new energy power generation, consumer electronics, 5G communications, home appliances and other industries.

Various types of soft magnetic materials are applied to different downstream fields according to their own characteristics, and some fields form direct competition. silicon steel is mainly used in generators, motor stator rotors, power transformer iron core, etc. amorphous alloy has begun to replace silicon steel in the fields of transformer core and other energy-saving advantages. permetal alloy is mainly used in magnetic amplifiers, magnetic modulators, choke , high-frequency switching power supply transformers, etc. Ferrite, nano-amorphous, etc. are mainly used in high-frequency electronic power components, including various capacitors, inductors, etc., and can be used in communications, home appliances, new energy vehicles, wireless charging and other fields. Nanocrystal alloys form direct competition with ferrite in some fields, and iron powder cores are mainly used in inverter inductors, high-frequency power chokes, resonant inductors, high-frequency electronic transformers, etc.

Global soft ferrite production has remained stable in recent years, and its production capacity is mainly concentrated in China and Japan. my country's soft ferrite production capacity accounts for about 70% of the world, and Japan is leading in technology. The most common ferrite soft magnetic field in my country are manganese zinc ferrite and nickel zinc ferrite, accounting for 70% and 10% of the total output respectively. In addition, magnesium zinc ferrite accounts for 8%, and lithium zinc ferrite accounts for 6%. According to the Magnetic Materials Branch of the China Electronic Materials Industry Association, as of the end of 2020, there were about 230 enterprises in my country engaged in soft ferrite production, and about 100 enterprises with initial scale. Most enterprises have a production scale of 500 tons, and there are about 80 enterprises with a production scale of more than 1,000 tons. About 10 enterprises can reach a production capacity of tens of thousands of tons. There are only two companies with a production capacity of 30,000 tons, and only two companies with a production capacity of Hengdian Dongci and Tiantong Co., Ltd. .

1988, Hitachi Metal was the first to complete the research and development of nanocrystal alloy materials. As of now, the global industrialization of nanocrystal alloys has only been more than 30 years. nanocrystalline material benefits from its high saturation magnetic density, high magnetic permeability, and high Curie temperature material advantages. Compared with ferrite soft magnetic materials, it has significant advantages in the pursuit of miniaturization, lightweight and complex temperature scenarios. It is mainly used to produce inductor components, electronic transformers, transformers, sensors and other products. It can be used in new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, new energy power generation, home appliances, and particle accelerators. Especially in recent years, nanocrystalline alloy materials have been gradually promoted in emerging industries such as wireless charging modules and new energy vehicle motors. Nanocrystalline alloy materials are expected to usher in broad market growth space. According to the "2020-2026 Global and China Nanocrystal Soft Magnetic Materials Market Current Situation and Future Development Trends" issued by QYResearch, the global nanocrystal soft magnetic material market size showed a continuous growth trend from 2015 to 2019, with output from 21,500 tons to 30,200 tons, and the market size increased from 165 million US dollars to 242 million US dollars, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10.05%.

metal magnetic powder core includes iron powder core, high magnetic flux powder core, iron silicon powder core, iron silicon aluminum powder core and iron nickel molybdenum powder core. Other powder cores except iron powder cores are collectively called alloy magnetic powder cores. In terms of the frequency and power of metal magnetic powder core, they are between metal and ferrite, and are mainly used in transformers, high-frequency chokes, and high-power electrical equipment in switching power supply, and play a role in blocking current, transforming and matching. Its basic feature is that it has a high Bs (1.5T), and the DC output rectified filter choke is not easy to produce saturation under large currents. It has good constant magnetic permeability characteristics, and the production process is simple and does not require high-temperature sintering. Typical applications of metal magnetic powder cores include switching power supplies, filters and antenna tuning loops at high power, high-performance EMI filters, etc. Magnetic powder core is a key component of high-frequency, high-current, and high-power inductor devices, and is widely used in the DC output rectifying filter choke in switching power supplies. Iron nickel molybdenum, high flux powder core, iron silicon aluminum powder core Sanzhong magnetic powder core materials have been widely used in power supply filter inductance . Especially in the line filter circuit that suppresses and filters differential mode conduction EMI, three types of magnetic powder cores have important applications.

Demand Measurement: The tight balance pattern continues

In addition to the above-mentioned new energy vehicles, industrial motors, and wind power, neodymium iron boron magnetic materials are also used in traditional automobiles, consumer electronics, traditional automobiles, durable consumer goods, energy-saving elevators and other fields. Core assumptions: 1) Different new energy vehicles consume different neodymium iron boron, and most of the ranges are concentrated in 1-10kg. Measurement standard: 4kg/vehicle, we continue the lithium sector forecast for the production of new energy vehicles; 2) The unit consumption of neodymium iron boron of industrial motors is about 241kg/MW. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Motor Energy Efficiency Improvement Plan (2021-2023)", we assume that the scale of industrial motors has grown steadily, but the market share of rare earth permanent magnet motors has increased rapidly; 3) From the current market development, the speed of direct-drive permanent magnet fans replacing double-feeded fans is accelerating, and the unit consumption of wind power turner: 670kg/MW;

According to the forecast, the supply and demand of praseodymium oxide will be in a tight balance from 2022 to 2024, and the global new supply in the next three years depends on the release of domestic mining indicators. But the government's strategic positioning of rare earths has determined that the situation of extensive development of the rare earth industry has been completely reversed. In the future, the increase in mining indicators will strictly match industrial demand. Therefore, the tight balance pattern of supply and demand of praseodymium oxide may continue in the next three years, and the price of praseodymium oxide will also be at a temporary high.(Report source: Future Think Tank)

Aluminum: Regenerated aluminum has emerged under the background of carbon neutrality

Aluminum price historical cycle backward: monetary policy and supply-side reform are the core drivers

Over the past 20 years, aluminum prices have experienced 4 cycles, and monetary policy and supply-side reform are the core drivers; the first cycle (2003-2007): 2002 Internet bubble interest rate cuts and the rise of China's industry, aluminum prices have risen by 118% for five consecutive years, and aluminum prices have fallen rapidly in the financial crisis in 2008; the second cycle (2009-2011): 2009 2009 2009 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus, global economic recovery and industrial demand have increased, aluminum prices have risen cumulatively 119%, the European debt crisis in 2012 and the global monetary policy tightened to a decline in aluminum prices; the third round of cycle (2015-2018): In 2015, the United States ended the balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes in and , and China and Europe lowered interest rates, coupled with China's electrolytic aluminum supply-side reform, aluminum prices rose by 90%, and after the interest rate cut and shantytown renovation were completed in 2018, aluminum prices fell; the fourth round of cycle (2020-to-present): In 2020, the United States has unlimited QE, China resumed work and production quickly, and aluminum prices rose by 81% to this day.

electrolytic aluminum is under the dual pressure of supply-side reform and carbon neutrality. The future capacity expansion space is limited. China strictly controls the 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity indicator to form an aluminum supply bottleneck, and overseas aluminum giants have slow capital expenditure; the growth rate of aluminum demand is relatively high, with an average annual growth rate of 6% in the past 20 years. There is broad room for development in consumer goods and lightweight fields, and supply and demand are expected to remain tight in the future; global liquidity tightens, The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is expected to drive the price of nonferrous commodities to fall, but carbon neutrality suppresses the new construction and operation rate of short-term electrolytic aluminum production capacity, Inner Mongolia restricts production and Yunnan restricts power to lower load, supporting aluminum prices; China's electrolytic aluminum industry in the future Relying on unplanned capacity approvals and recycled aluminum increments, aluminum supply and demand will be kept in a tight balance in the long run, and the medium and long-term aluminum price center is expected to maintain a steady increase.

alumina expands production and oversupply, aluminum prices continue to rise, electrolytic aluminum profit is high, and aluminum 8

alumina is the main raw material of electrolytic aluminum. Each ton of electrolytic aluminum requires 1.92 tons of alumina, accounting for about 40% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It is one of the main factors affecting the profit of electrolytic aluminum. The price of alumina remained high from 2017 to 2018, and domestic and foreign alumina companies have good profits, and the global alumina production capacity has grown rapidly. Since the price of alumina has entered a downward cycle in 2019, according to our estimates, due to the weak price of alumina, it is expected that the gross profit of electrolytic aluminum tons will remain above 5,000 yuan/ton in 2022. Affected by the supply-side reform of electrolytic aluminum, the growth rate of primary aluminum supply is limited, and aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level. In May 2022, aluminum prices rose 11% to 20,800 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year. According to our estimates, it is expected that the net profit of electrolytic aluminum tonnes will rise to around 3,841 yuan in May 2022.

electrolytic aluminum production: China's electrolytic aluminum production grew by 4.8% in 2021, and it is expected that the output will increase by 6.7% in 2022

According to Antaike data, China's electrolytic aluminum production in 2021 was 38.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In April 2022, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 43.41 million tons, and its operating capacity was 40.31 million tons. From January to April 2022, the electrolytic aluminum production was 12.88 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 175,000 tons, an increase of 1%. In April, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and the actual output growth in 2022 was lower than expected. According to Bachuan data, China's electrolytic aluminum added 2.575 million tons in 2022. Due to the rise in electrolytic aluminum prices in 2021, the pace of new production capacity being put into production and resumption of work has accelerated. We expect the new production of electrolytic aluminum to be 2.6 million tons in 2022, an increase of 6.7%. As overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, the global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2021.

Recycled aluminum industry analysis

According to the production raw materials, aluminum can be divided into electrolytic aluminum (primary aluminum) and recycled aluminum. Among them, electrolytic aluminum refers to aluminum metal produced through bauxite mining, alumina refining, electrolytic aluminum production and other processes; and recycled aluminum refers to aluminum metal or aluminum alloy obtained by remelting and refining from scrap aluminum or aluminum-containing scrap. After electrolytic aluminum or recycled aluminum is processed, a variety of products such as aluminum plate and tape, aluminum foil, aluminum profile , etc., which are widely used in construction, transportation, electricity, machinery and other fields.At present, the global production of aluminum is mainly based on electrolytic aluminum and recycled aluminum is supplemented.

Due to the strong corrosion resistance and high recovery rate of aluminum metal, aluminum and aluminum alloy products have high recyclability after scrapping. The main raw material of recycled aluminum is scrap aluminum. According to the source of scrap aluminum, waste materials containing aluminum are usually divided into two categories: new scrap aluminum and old scrap aluminum. New scrap aluminum comes from the link before the use of aluminum products, mainly including scrap materials, scrap products and chips generated during the production and processing of various aluminum materials. They are generally recycled by the manufacturer themselves, and only a small part of them enters the social circulation; old scrap aluminum comes from the scrapping process after the use of aluminum products, that is, scrap aluminum recycled from the fields of building materials, transportation tools, equipment, furniture, kitchen and bathroom supplies that are scrapped from the society. After the above-mentioned new and old scrap aluminum is sorted and melted, recycled aluminum alloy can be produced and put into use again.

electrolytic aluminum and recycled aluminum supply: China's recycled aluminum production accounted for 20% of the total output in 2020, accounting for 35% of the world. According to data from the International Aluminum Association, the global production of recycled aluminum increased from 18.87 million tons to 34.71 million tons from 2009 to 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 6%; the global production of electrolytic aluminum increased from 37.71 million tons to 65.33 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5%; the proportion of recycled aluminum output increased from 33% to 35%. Since 2015, the proportion of global recycled aluminum output to aluminum output has steadily increased; according to data from the Ministry of Commerce, China's production of recycled aluminum increased from 3.1 million tons to 7.4 million tons from 2009 to 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 8%; China's production of electrolytic aluminum increased from 12.89 million tons to 37.08 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10%; the proportion of recycled aluminum output remained at It is close to 20%, significantly lower than the global average of 35%, and is even more obvious than the United States and more than 80% and Japan, which is close to 100%. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" of Circular Economy Development" of the National Development and Reform Commission, the target is that the production of recycled aluminum will reach 11.5 million tons by 2025. Based on the output of 7.4 million tons in 2020, the average annual compound growth rate will be 9%, and the recycled aluminum industry will have broad room for development.

electrolytic aluminum supply and demand: capacity ceiling, benefiting from new energy

serious overcapacity, and the industry has been in deep losses for a long time. The technical barriers of electrolytic aluminum are relatively low, but the investment volume is relatively large, making it easy to form industrial clusters in the local area. Therefore, before 2017, in order to develop the economy, some local governments significantly expanded the electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and even gave preferential treatment in terms of electricity prices, tax rates, land prices, resource allocation, etc. At this stage, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has expanded significantly and has a serious oversupply, and the industry has been in deep losses for a long time. Supply-side reform establishes the 45 million tons production capacity ceiling of China's electrolytic aluminum. In order to solve the problem of overcapacity of electrolytic aluminum and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry, in 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and four other ministries jointly issued the "Notice on the Action Plan for Cleaning Up and Rectifying Illegal and Regulating Illegal Projects in the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry", and the ceiling of my country's electrolytic aluminum industry production capacity was designated as 45 million tons. According to data from Antaike, as of the end of December 2021, China's electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 43.25 million tons/year, and the industry's future capacity expansion space is less than 2 million tons. Since 2020, with the gradual emergence of the supply-side reform effect, coupled with the impact of the "dual carbon" policy, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has been limited, the prices have increased significantly, and the industry's profits have become prominent.

Benefiting from new energy, photovoltaics and new energy vehicles are expected to boost global demand for electrolytic aluminum. At the upstream of the new energy industry chain - energy conversion level, electrolytic aluminum is mainly used in the photovoltaic field; according to Antaike data, the installed capacity of photovoltaics per GW consumes 13,000 tons of aluminum for frames and 07,000 tons of aluminum for brackets; according to China Photovoltaic Industry Association , the new installed capacity of the global photovoltaic market will reach 310GW~360GW in 2030; it is estimated that the global photovoltaic construction aluminum consumption in 2030 will be approximately 6.2 million tons~7.2 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 9%~11%.

In the downstream of the new energy industry chain - energy use level, electrolytic aluminum is mainly used in the aluminum alloy anti-collision beams, chassis parts and all-aluminum bodies of new energy vehicles; as an effective way to save energy and protect and improve endurance, lightweighting has become the development trend of the world's automobile industry. According to CM Group data, passenger/commercial new energy vehicles consume 158/232 kilograms of aluminum in 2020, and is expected to increase to 284/409 kilograms in 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 6%/6%; according to the global sales and forecast data of new energy vehicles given by the IEA, it is estimated that new energy vehicles consume 520,000 tons of aluminum in 2020, and under the neutral/optimistic assumption, it will increase to 692/1266 in 2030 under the neutral/optimistic assumption Ten thousand tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30%/38%.

Recycled aluminum: fill the gap + low carbon emission + high accumulation + policy support. The recycled aluminum industry has great potential for

Recycled aluminum is an important way to make up for the supply and demand gap of electrolytic aluminum. On the supply side, China's electrolytic aluminum is under the dual pressure of supply-side reform and carbon neutrality. In the future, there is limited room for capacity expansion, and overseas aluminum giants are slow to spend; on the demand side, electrolytic aluminum is widely used downstream, and photovoltaics and new energy vehicles are expected to become new growth points for electrolytic aluminum consumption. It is expected that there will be a gap in the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum in the future, while recycled aluminum and electrolytic aluminum have a certain degree of homogeneity and strong product substitution. The incremental supply of China's recycled aluminum industry is expected to become an important way to make up for the supply and demand gap in electrolytic aluminum.

Carbon neutrality is a strong support for the vigorous development of recycled aluminum. Electrolytic aluminum is a key area of carbon neutrality in the non-ferrous metal industry. According to data from the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, the total carbon dioxide emissions of my country's non-ferrous metals industry in 2020 were about 650 million tons, accounting for 6.5% of the total national emissions. Among them, the carbon dioxide emissions of electrolytic aluminum are about 420 million tons, which is an important area for the non-ferrous metal industry to achieve "carbon peak". According to Antaike data, electrolytic aluminum smelting requires 11.2 tons of carbon emission per ton, while recycled aluminum is only 0.23 tons, and recycled aluminum is only 2.1% of electrolytic aluminum. According to the "Recycled Nonferrous Metals Industry Development Promotion Plan", compared with the production of electrolytic aluminum, each ton of recycled aluminum produced can save 3.4 tons of coal, 22 tons of water, and reduce solid waste emissions by 20 tons. Developing recycled aluminum industry and increasing the proportion of recycled aluminum are powerful measures to reduce carbon emissions in the aluminum industry.

00 Aluminum has a high social accumulation, which is a reliable guarantee for recycled aluminum raw materials. The main raw material of the recycled aluminum industry is scrap aluminum. According to the source of raw materials, waste containing aluminum is usually divided into two categories: new waste aluminum and old waste aluminum; in 2019, China's scrap aluminum recycling volume was 6 million tons, accounting for 81.2% of the total supply of raw materials in the recycled aluminum industry; new waste aluminum comes from the link before the use of aluminum products, mainly including scrap materials, scrap products and chips generated during the production and processing and utilization of various aluminum materials, which are generally recycled by the production and processing plant, and only a small part enters social circulation; in 2019, China's new waste aluminum was about 2 million tons; old waste aluminum comes from the scrap dismantling process after the use of aluminum products. In 2019, my country's old waste aluminum was about 4 million tons, of which 1.6 million tons (accounting for 40%) in the construction field, 1.1 million tons (accounting for 27%) in the transportation field, and 600,000 tons (accounting for 1.6 million tons) in the transportation field (accounting for 27%) in the packaging field (accounting for 600,000 tons (accounting for 1.6 million tons) in the construction field (accounting for 27%) in the packaging field (accounting for 600,000 tons (accounting for 1.6 million tons) in the construction field (accounting for 40%) in the transportation field (accounting for 27%) in the packaging field (accounting for 600,000 tons (accounting for 1.6 million tons) in the construction field (accounting for 27%) in the packaging field (accounting for 600,000 tons (accounting for 1.6 million tons) in the construction field (accounting for 20%) in the transportation field (accounting for 600,000 tons) in the packaging field (accounting for 1.6 million tons) in the construction field (accounting for 2 15%), 500,000 tons in the mechanical manufacturing field (13%), and 400,000 tons in the power and electronics field (10%).

According to Antaike data, as of the end of 2019, my country's aluminum stock has reached 340 million tons, and the social use stock has reached 290 million tons. According to the calculations of the Recycled Metals Branch of the Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the life expectancy of aluminum products put into use in China since the 21st century is between 15 and 18 years. With the continuous increase in my country's aluminum social accumulation and the approaching peak of scrapping related products, it is expected that my country's old scrap aluminum production will increase significantly. According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, my country's scrap aluminum recycling volume increased from 4.43 million tons to 7.01 million tons from 2016 to 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12%. It is estimated that my country's scrap aluminum recycling volume will reach 7.84 million tons in 2021, and my country's scrap aluminum recycling has entered a stage of rapid growth. The increase in the recycling of waste aluminum materials has provided good guarantee for the supply of raw materials for the development of the recycled aluminum industry.

Electrolytic aluminum production capacity is the direction of strong support for national policies.The recycled aluminum industry belongs to the category of resource recycling and circular economy, and the healthy development of the industry is of great strategic significance to my country's ecological civilization construction and green development. In recent years, the country has successively issued a number of policy documents to vigorously support the development of the circular economy and recycled metals industries. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" of Circular Economy Development" of the National Development and Reform Commission, the target is that the production of recycled aluminum will reach 11.5 million tons by 2025. Based on the output of 7.4 million tons in 2020, the average annual compound growth rate will be 9%, and the recycled aluminum industry will have broad room for development.

One of the development trends of the recycled aluminum industry: the market concentration is expected to increase

The recycled aluminum industry is fiercely competitive, and the market concentration is expected to increase in the future. my country's recycled aluminum industry started late. In the 1980s, driven by the strong demand for aluminum, recycled aluminum enterprises were established one after another, and a large number of small recycled aluminum factories and small workshops were developing rapidly. According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, my country currently has more than 7,000 recycled aluminum companies, but the average scale of a single enterprise is small, the industry market concentration is low, and the competition is fierce. According to the prospectus of Shunbo Alloy, the market shares of Lizhong Group, Huajin Group, Shunbo Alloy, Yiqiu Resources and Xinge Group in 2019 were 6.29%, 4.83%, 4.83%, 4.72%, 4.15% and 3.86%, respectively, while CR6 was only 28.68%.

In order to improve the scale and intensive utilization of renewable aluminum resources, in July 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Aluminum Industry Standard Conditions", which stipulated that the scale of newly built recycled aluminum projects should be more than 100,000 tons per year, and the production scale of existing recycled aluminum enterprises shall not be less than 50,000 tons per year; in addition, on December 31, 2019, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Management Committee announced the "Recycled Casting Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials", which restricted the import of metal waste from domestic recycled aluminum enterprises. In the future, recycled aluminum enterprises with small scale, irregular environmental protection, mainly foreign imports, but have not yet laid out foreign sorting production channels, will face certain survival pressure. With the further regulation of the industry, it is expected that major brands will rise in competition with their scale advantages and gradually expand their production capacity. At the same time, some small enterprises will accelerate their clearance, and the market concentration of my country's recycled aluminum industry is expected to increase.

The second development trend of the recycled aluminum industry: China's solid waste ban has changed the global supply and demand pattern of renewable resources

China's recycled aluminum raw materials supply and demand pattern: scrap aluminum imports are gradually shrinking, and the industry will still face the problem of raw material shortage in the short term

2017 Before the year, imported scrap aluminum accounted for a high proportion of domestic recycled aluminum raw materials. Domestic scrap aluminum mainly comes from two parts: import and domestic recycling. Due to the late urbanization and industrialization process in my country, the social ownership of scrap aluminum in the early stage is insufficient, the supply is relatively short, and the concentration of the waste market is also low. In view of the more perfect foreign recycling system, the price of scrap aluminum abroad is lower than that of domestic prices, and the cost of recycled aluminum enterprises using imported scrap aluminum is significantly lower than that of domestic scrap aluminum enterprises. Therefore, before 2017, the import of scrap aluminum raw materials in the domestic recycled aluminum industry accounted for a relatively high proportion. In particular, developed countries led by the United States are the main source countries for domestic raw material imports. Therefore, recycled aluminum enterprises are concentrated in coastal port areas, and the industrial agglomeration zones such as the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Rim have formed.

2017 After 2017, the import of scrap aluminum was restricted, and the scale of scrap aluminum imports gradually shrank. On April 18, 2017, the Central National Leading Group for Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the "Implementation Plan for Prohibition of Foreign Garbages to Promote the Reform of Solid Waste Import Management System". After the implementation of the plan, the regulatory standards for imported waste became increasingly strict, and the import of scrap aluminum was gradually restricted; after 2018, Sino-US trade frictions intensified, and the tariff on scrap aluminum imports increased significantly; on December 31, 2019, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Management Committee announced the "Recycled Casting Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials", and imported raw materials must fully meet the indicator requirements; on October 16, 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and four other ministries jointly issued the "On Standardizing Recycled Brass Raw Materials, Recycled Copper Raw Materials and Recycled Casting Announcement on Matters Related to the Management of Import of Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials" further restricts the import of metal waste from domestic recycled aluminum companies.The introduction of the policy of restricting the import of scrap aluminum and the intensified trade friction between China and the United States, the scale of my country's imported scrap aluminum is gradually shrinking. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, my country imported 2.1724 million tons of scrap aluminum in 2017, and fell to 1.0334 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 52%.

The domestic raw materials for the recycled aluminum industry will become a general trend, but in the short term, my country's recycled aluminum industry may continue to face the problem of raw material shortage. In terms of domestic scrap aluminum recycling, according to data from China Business Industry Research Institute, my country's scrap aluminum recycling volume increased from 4.43 million tons to 7.01 million tons from 2016 to 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12%. It is estimated that my country's scrap aluminum recycling volume will reach 7.84 million tons in 2021, and China's scrap aluminum recycling volume will steadily grow. It is expected that with the gradual improvement of my country's waste recycling system and the implementation of the circular economy policy, it will become a general trend for domestic raw materials in the recycled aluminum industry to replace imported raw materials. However, in the short term, my country's recycled aluminum industry may continue to face the problem of raw material shortage. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" of Circular Economy Development" of the National Development and Reform Commission, the target is that the production of recycled aluminum will reach 11.5 million tons by 2025. According to the average utilization rate of 85% of the scrap aluminum, 13.5 million tons of scrap aluminum are required. According to Aladdin data, it is estimated that China's scrap aluminum recycling volume in 2025 will be only 9-10 million tons; even under the optimistic situation (my country's scrap aluminum import volume recovers to the 2 million tons level in 2017), after comprehensive imports and domestic recycling volume, it is estimated that my country's total scrap aluminum acquisition in 2025 will be 11-12 million tons, which still has a certain gap compared with the 13.5 million tons of scrap aluminum required for the 11.5 million tons of recycled aluminum production.

Southeast Asian countries followed suit after China implemented the ban on "foreign garbage". In January 2018, China officially implemented a ban on "foreign garbage" and completely banned the import of 24 solid waste in four categories. Since then, garbage recyclers in European and American countries have exported solid waste to other Asian markets, especially Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Due to the serious lack of garbage disposal and recycling capabilities, the increasing number of "foreign garbage" has brought serious harm to the ecological environment and people's health of Southeast Asian countries. Under heavy pressure, countries have successively introduced restrictions and relevant laws to prohibit the import of garbage. For example, the Thai government announced that it would ban the import of plastic waste before 2021, the Vietnamese government announced that it would stop issuing new garbage import licenses, and Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries have also taken severe crackdowns on the import of "foreign garbage", mainly including strengthening customs supervision and inspection, and further strengthening the formulation and improvement of relevant laws at home. As developing countries refuse to accept "foreign garbage", the amount of garbage hoarding in major garbage disposal stations in the United States has increased significantly.

The increase in the storage of scrap aluminum has led to an increase in the price spread of refined waste in the United States. In 2021, the average price spread of refined waste in the United States was 3,790 yuan/ton. The United States is the largest source of China's scrap aluminum imports. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2018, the United States scrap aluminum accounted for 33% of China's scrap aluminum imports. Against the backdrop of China's policy of restricting the import of scrap aluminum and trade war, the amount of scrap aluminum exported to China by the United States has decreased. In addition, Southeast Asian countries have successively issued bans on garbage imports, and the stockpiling of scrap aluminum in the United States has increased significantly, which further led to a significant increase in the price spread of refined waste in the United States. In 2021, the average price of LME aluminum is US$2478/ton, the average price of scrap aluminum is US$1895/ton, and the average price difference of refined waste is US$583/ton (calculated at RMB 6.5 to RMB 1, equivalent to RMB 3790/ton). In 2021, the average price difference between fine waste in China was only 2584 yuan/ton. After the implementation of the policy of restricting the import of scrap aluminum, China has experienced a shortage of scrap aluminum raw materials, and the price of scrap aluminum has risen relatively. In 2021, the average price of nonferrous aluminum in South China Sea was 17,755 yuan/ton, the average price of scrap aluminum was 15,171 yuan/ton, and the average price difference of refined waste was only 2,584 yuan/ton. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

Copper industry: Supply and demand are booming, copper prices are high, copper profits are expected to drive capital expenditure upward

Copper supply: The impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and refined copper production is expected to increase by 0.4% and 5.3% respectively from 22 to 23

Copper reserves: 880 million tons of global copper reserves in 2021, Chile and Peru account for 32% of the world

According to USGS data, the global copper resource reserves in 2021 were 880 million tons, an increase of 1% from 2020.Global copper resource reserves are mainly concentrated in South America, with Chile accounting for 23%, Peru accounting for 9%, and Mexico accounting for 6%.

Copper supply structure: In 2020, the global native copper production was 20.58 million tons, and the recycled copper production was 3.88 million tons.

Copper supply consists of two parts: native copper and recycled copper. The native copper is mainly mineral copper concentrate produced by fire and mineral cathode copper produced by wet. According to ICSG data, the global copper supply in 2020 was 24.45 million tons, of which 20.58 million tons of native copper production was 84%; and the recycled copper production was 3.88 million tons, accounting for 16%.

According to USGS data, the global copper mineral output in 2020 was 20.78 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from 2019, and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The global copper mineral production is consistent with the reserves region, mainly concentrated in South America, with Chile accounting for 28% of production and Peru accounting for 10%.

Copper mineral output: In 2021, the global mineral copper output was 21.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%

According to WoodMackenzie data, the global mineral copper output in 2021 was 21.46 million tons, an increase of 430,000 tons compared with 2020, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; it is estimated that the global mineral copper output in 2022 will be 22.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. In 2023, the copper supply growth ushered in a high point in supply growth, with an estimated output of 24.04 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%.

refined copper supply: In 2022, the long-term processing fee for copper smelting rebounded to US$65/ton, and the contradiction in copper ore supply has gradually eased

2021 annual long-term smelting processing fee for copper concentrate is US$59.5/ton (US$62/ton in 2020), and rose to US$65/ton in 2022. The contradiction in copper ore supply has eased. At present, spot processing fee has also rebounded, and as of May 2022, it has rebounded to US$80/ton (up 30% from the beginning of the year). According to WoodMackenzie data, the global refined copper production in 2021 was 24.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. In 2022, the supply of refined copper is limited. It is estimated that the global refined copper production in 2022 will be 24.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. In 2023, the global refined copper production will be 26.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.

Copper demand: Global copper demand is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2022, and copper demand in 2023 will grow by 2.5%

China's copper demand accounts for 55% of global copper demand, and is the dominant force in global copper demand. According to ICSG data, global refined copper consumption in 2021 was 25.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%. From the perspective of consumer regions, China is the world's largest copper consumer, with copper consumption of 13.87 million tons (55%) in 2021; the EU is the second largest consumer economy, with copper consumption of 2.89 million tons (11%) in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 22%. The United States is the third largest copper consumer, with copper consumption of 1.77 million tons (7%) in 2021.

According to Bloomberg data, global copper demand is mainly distributed in the power grid (37%), construction (22%), home appliances (15%), machinery and equipment (11%), transportation (8%) and others (7%). The power grid and construction account for a large proportion of global demand. China's copper demand is mainly distributed in the power grid (50%), air conditioning (16%), transportation (9%), electronics (7%), construction (8%) and others (10%). The infrastructure demand represented by China's power grid has a great impact on copper.

Due to the gradual recovery of the global economy after the epidemic, European and American economic data rebounded, and the economic stimulus plans launched by central banks in various countries showed results, global GDP growth rate was 6.1% in 2021 and copper consumption increased by 4.2%; due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia since 2022, the IMF expects global GDP to grow by 3.6% and 3.6% year-on-year from 2022 to 2023. We expect global copper consumption to grow by 2.3% and 2.5% respectively from 2022 to 2023.

(Report producer/author: CITIC Construction Investment Securities, Wang Jiechao, Li Musen, Wang Xiaofang)

Rare Earth &Magnetic Materials Industry: Magnetic Materials Demand Recovery, Rare Earth Supply Grows Moderately

rare earth prices review: demand picks up, supporting prices strengthening again

Rare earth supply: The supply of praseodymium oxide in 2024 is expected to exceed 100,000 tons

Domestic mines: The north-south duopoly pattern is formed, and the rare earth mining and smelting control indicators are expected to rise in 2022 20%

Overseas mines: Overseas mine capacity increase is limited

Rare earth demand: low-carbon economy drives the long-term demand for high-performance magnetic materials

New energy vehicles have become a demand outlet

permanent magnet material, also known as hard magnetic material, is a material with wide hysteresis loops, high coercive force, high residual magnetism, and can maintain constant magnetism once magnetized. It has functions such as conversion, transmission, processing, storage of information and energy. It has a wide range of applications, such as electroacoustics, mineral processing, energy, household appliances, medical care, automobiles, automatic control, information technology and other fields. Permanent magnet materials can be divided into: metal permanent magnet materials, ferrite permanent magnet materials, and rare earth permanent magnet materials, which are mainly used to make small magnetic components . soft magnetic material is also called flexible magnetic material. It has low coercive force, easy magnetization and demagnetization. Compared with permanent magnet materials, soft magnetic material has a high magnetic permeability. Large magnetic induction strength and high density magnetic flux can be obtained under a lower external magnetic field strength. At the same time, the coercive force is small and easy to demagnetize. In actual applications, it mainly plays a magnetic permeability role, realizes the conversion of electrical energy parameters of the circuit, and is used in many fields such as small transformers, relays, inductor cores, relays, audio and video heads, magnetic shielding covers, motor stator rotors, inductor components, etc. Soft magnetic materials mainly include metal soft magnets, ferrite soft magnets, etc.

permanent magnet material: high-performance motor core material

1) Ferrite permanent magnet material

Ferrite, also known as ferrogen oxygen or magnetic porcelain, is a non-metal magnetic material, and is a composite oxide (or orthoferrate) of magnetic iron trioxide and one or more metal oxides. The magnetic force is usually 800-1000 Gauss. permanent magnet ferrite is a metal oxide with ferromagnetic nature. The resistivity of ferrite is much greater than that of metal and alloy magnetic materials, and has a higher dielectric performance. It has a higher magnetic permeability at high frequencies. Therefore, ferrite has become a widely used non-metal magnetic material in the field of high frequency and weak current. Compared with NdFeB permanent magnet materials, NdFeB has stronger magnetic properties, but the raw materials of ferrite permanent magnet materials are iron red , strontium carbonate, barium carbonate, etc., with relatively rich resources, relatively low prices, better temperature and oxidation resistance, stable performance, no need for anti-oxidation coating protection, and are often used in variable frequency home appliances, power tools, audio speakers, automobiles and other fields.

2) Rare Earth permanent magnet

Soft magnetic material: Benefiting from the rapid growth of new energy demand

Demand Measurement: The tight balance pattern continues

Aluminum: Regenerated aluminum has emerged under the background of carbon neutrality

Aluminum price historical cycle backward: monetary policy and supply-side reform are the core drivers

alumina expands production and oversupply, aluminum prices continue to rise, electrolytic aluminum profit is high, and aluminum 8

electrolytic aluminum production: China's electrolytic aluminum production grew by 4.8% in 2021, and it is expected that the output will increase by 6.7% in 2022

Recycled aluminum industry analysis

Due to the strong corrosion resistance and high recovery rate of aluminum metal, aluminum and aluminum alloy products have high recyclability after scrapping. The main raw material of recycled aluminum is scrap aluminum. According to the source of scrap aluminum, waste materials containing aluminum are usually divided into two categories: new scrap aluminum and old scrap aluminum. New scrap aluminum comes from the link before the use of aluminum products, mainly including scrap materials, scrap products and chips generated during the production and processing of various aluminum materials. They are generally recycled by the manufacturer themselves, and only a small part of them enters the social circulation; old scrap aluminum comes from the scrapped link after the use of aluminum products, that is, scrap aluminum recycled from the fields of building materials, transportation tools, equipment, furniture, kitchen and bathroom supplies that are scrapped from the society. After the above-mentioned new and old scrap aluminum is sorted and melted, recycled aluminum alloy can be produced and put into use again.

electrolytic aluminum supply and demand: capacity ceiling, benefiting from new energy

Recycled aluminum: fill the gap + low carbon emission + high accumulation + policy support. The recycled aluminum industry has great potential for

One of the development trends of the recycled aluminum industry: the market concentration is expected to increase

The recycled aluminum industry is fiercely competitive, and the market concentration is expected to increase in the future. my country's recycled aluminum industry started late. In the 1980s, driven by the strong demand for aluminum, recycled aluminum enterprises were established one after another, and a large number of small recycled aluminum factories and small workshops were developing rapidly. According to data from China Business Industry Research Institute, my country currently has more than 7,000 recycled aluminum companies, but the average scale of a single enterprise is small, the industry market concentration is low, and the competition is fierce. According to the prospectus of Shunbo Alloy, the market shares of Lizhong Group, Huajin Group, Shunbo Alloy, Yiqiu Resources and Xinge Group in 2019 were 6.29%, 4.83%, 4.83%, 4.72%, 4.15% and 3.86%, respectively, while CR6 was only 28.68%.

In order to improve the scale and intensive utilization of recycled aluminum resources, in July 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Aluminum Industry Standard Conditions", which stipulated that the scale of newly built recycled aluminum projects should be more than 100,000 tons per year, and the production scale of existing recycled aluminum enterprises shall not be less than 50,000 tons per year; in addition, on December 31, 2019, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Management Committee announced the "Recycled Casting Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials", which restricted the import of metal waste from domestic recycled aluminum enterprises. In the future, recycled aluminum enterprises with small scale, irregular environmental protection, mainly foreign imports, but have not yet laid out foreign sorting production channels, will face certain survival pressure. With the further industry standardization, it is expected that major brands will rise in competition with their scale advantages and gradually expand their production capacity. At the same time, some small enterprises will accelerate their clearance, and the market concentration of my country's recycled aluminum industry is expected to increase.

The second development trend of the recycled aluminum industry: China's solid waste ban is banned from imports to change the global supply and demand pattern of renewable resources

2017 Before the year, imported scrap aluminum accounted for a high proportion of domestic recycled aluminum raw materials. Domestic scrap aluminum mainly comes from two parts: import and domestic recycling. Due to the late urbanization and industrialization process in my country, the early stage of scrap aluminum has insufficient social ownership, relatively shortage of supply, and the concentration of the waste market is also low. In view of the more perfect foreign recycling system, the price of scrap aluminum abroad is lower than that of domestic prices, and the cost of recycled aluminum enterprises using imported scrap aluminum is significantly lower than that of enterprises using domestic scrap aluminum. Therefore, before 2017, the import of scrap aluminum raw materials in the domestic recycled aluminum industry accounted for a relatively high proportion. In particular, developed countries led by the United States are the main source countries for domestic raw material imports. Therefore, recycled aluminum enterprises are concentrated in coastal port areas, and the industrial agglomeration zones such as the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Rim have formed.

2017 After 2017, the import of scrap aluminum was restricted, and the scale of scrap aluminum imports gradually shrank. On April 18, 2017, the Central National Leading Group for Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the Implementation Plan on Prohibition of Foreign Garbages to Promote the Reform of Solid Waste Import Management System. After the implementation of the plan, the regulatory standards for imported waste became increasingly strict, and the import of scrap aluminum was gradually restricted; after 2018, Sino-US trade frictions intensified, and the tariff on scrap aluminum imports increased significantly; on December 31, 2019, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Management Committee announced the "Recycled Casting Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials", and imported raw materials must fully meet the indicator requirements; on October 16, 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and four other ministries jointly issued the "On Standardizing Recycled Brass Raw Materials, Recycled Copper Raw Materials and Recycled Casting Announcement on Matters Related to the Management of Import of Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials" further restricts the import of metal waste from domestic recycled aluminum companies.The introduction of the policy of restricting the import of scrap aluminum and the intensified trade friction between China and the United States, the scale of my country's imported scrap aluminum is gradually shrinking. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, my country imported 2.1724 million tons of scrap aluminum in 2017, and fell to 1.0334 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 52%.

Copper industry: Supply and demand are booming, copper prices are high, copper profits are expected to drive capital expenditure upward

Copper supply: The impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and refined copper production is expected to increase by 0.4% and 5.3% respectively from 22 to 23

Copper reserves: 880 million tons of global copper reserves in 2021, Chile and Peru account for 32% of the world

Copper supply structure: In 2020, the global native copper production was 20.58 million tons, and the recycled copper production was 3.88 million tons.

Copper mineral output: In 2021, the global mineral copper output was 21.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%

refined copper supply: In 2022, the long-term processing fee for copper smelting rebounded to US$65/ton, and the contradiction in copper ore supply has gradually eased

Copper demand: Global copper demand is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2022, and copper demand in 2023 will grow by 2.5%

Due to the impact of the epidemic, China is expected to vigorously promote infrastructure investment, and power grid orders recover rapidly. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the completed investment in power grid basic construction was 89.3 billion yuan from January to April 2022, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, and is expected to accelerate growth in the second half of the year. The epidemic has affected the start of copper rods in the second quarter in the short term. According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper rod companies in April 2022 was 54.68%, a significant decrease of 11.48 percentage points month-on-month and a decrease of 15.91 percentage points year-on-year. The squeezed orders are expected to be released in the second half of the year to drive the growth of copper consumption.From the perspective of real estate demand, under the background of stable growth, real estate completion is expected to rebound, driving a rebound in back-end demand, and the growth rate of air conditioning and automobile production in the second half of the year is expected to rebound. Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of completed area from January to April 2022 was -11.9%; in April 2022, the production of household air conditioners was 22.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the production of passenger cars was 995,700 units, a year-on-year decrease of 41.91%. Copper pipes are mainly used for air conditioners, refrigerators and automobile heat exchange accessories. According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in April was 78.09%, a month-on-month decrease of 7.78 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 11.32 percentage points. It is expected that the policy of stabilizing growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the completion of real estate is expected to rebound to drive the growth of demand for real estate back-end home appliances and automobiles.

Copper inventory: Inventory is at a historical low, short-term support for copper prices

In the statistical caliber of global refined copper inventory (LME+COMEX+SHFE+Chinese social inventory), as of May 2022, global explicit inventory was 590,000 tons. Since the first quarter of 2022, global energy prices have risen due to geopolitical conflicts, European copper smelting capacity has decreased production and stopped production, and the accumulation rate of copper inventory is slow, at the lowest level in the same period in history. Ultra-low inventory supports copper prices. It is expected that the supply of copper ore will increase in the future and the smelting costs will increase. The increase in copper supply may drive inventory to return to normal levels.

Gold industry: Inflation and economic recession expectations support the upward trend of gold prices

The gold industry chain can be divided into three parts: upstream gold mines, midstream smelting, and downstream consumption. The gold resources are smelting and processing to obtain synthetic gold (gold content: 70-99%) and standard gold (gold content: above 99.95%). After processing, standard gold is used in gold jewelry, physical gold investment, industry, central bank reserves, ETFs and other fields. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

The fulcrum of gold price prediction: the reverse correlation between gold and real interest rates

From a medium- and long-term perspective, gold prices and real interest rates show a relatively obvious negative correlation. Gold has various attributes such as currency, financial investment, and commodities. The special nature of gold determines that its price is affected by various factors such as monetary policy, economic situation, geopolitics, supply and demand relations. From a medium- and long-term perspective, gold prices and real interest rates show a relatively obvious negative correlation. The main logic is: gold is an interest-free asset, and US Treasury bonds can generate interest, so the opportunity cost of holding gold is the actual interest rate obtained by holding US bonds (real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation expectations). The higher the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds, the higher the opportunity cost of investors holding gold, and the lower the allocation value of gold. Therefore, there is often a good fit relationship between the gold price and the inverse of the actual yield of US Treasury bonds.

The TIPS yield was significantly lowered during the Federal Reserve, resulting in a brief decoupling of gold prices from the TIPS yield. From mid-March to early April 2022, the 10-year TIPS yield in the United States continued to rise, but the gold price remained stable and did not show the expected decline. The main reason is: during the period of quantitative easing, compared with the speed of purchasing nominal Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve purchased TIPS faster, resulting in a larger reduction in the TIPS yield. The result is: when the Federal Reserve QE in 2021, compared with the TIPS yield, gold prices were lower than the theoretical expected price throughout the year. According to Goldmoney Research's model, the gap between the actual price of gold and the expected price reached a maximum of US$200 per ounce. As the Federal Reserve ended QE, the actual price of gold and the model predicted price converged, the gold price briefly decoupled from the TIPS yield. The gold price overcame the pressure of the continued rise of the 10-year TIPS yield in the United States and remained stable. Therefore, although gold prices have been temporarily decoupled from TIPS yields, it does not mean that the actual yield pricing model is ineffective. The convergence of the actual price of gold and the model predicted price after the Federal Reserve ends QE, which just proves the effectiveness of the actual yield pricing model from a medium- and long-term perspective.

Russia conflict market risk aversion sentiment has risen gold prices

Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the gold market has shown a significant risk aversion sentiment dominant pattern, and the market may have fully digested related risk events in the near future. The US dollar is the priced currency in the international gold market. Assuming that the value of gold itself has not changed, there will be a negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of gold.However, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gold and the US dollar have shown a rise and fall in the same way for most of the time. This is a typical manifestation pattern of the gold market when a risk event occurs. From the perspective of gold ETF holdings, since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF have continued to rise to a maximum of about 1,100 tons. Since mid-April, the market may have fully digested the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is mainly reflected in: (1) The US dollar index and gold price reappeared negative correlation; (2) The holdings of SPDR gold ETFs have basically fallen back to the level before the conflict.

Gold price is expected to rise further under concerns about stagflation and recession

Recession hikes are expected to slow down under concerns about the Fed's interest rate hikes are expected to slow down under concerns about the US Treasury rate curve, and recession concerns are intensifying. The inverted U.S. bond yields are forward-looking indicators for judging economic recession. Historically, U.S. bond yields will be inverted before every US economic recession. In early April 2022, the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields showed their first inversion since 2019. Market expectations for the US economic recession heated up, and expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve cooled down. Some investors even expected that if the US economy could not achieve a "soft landing", the Federal Reserve was likely to restart quantitative easing. Amid concerns about recession, the market expects the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is expected to slow down, and U.S. bond yields have peaked and fallen.

Inflation level continues to be high, and inflation is difficult to alleviate under recession concerns

US inflation level continues to be high. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, since March 2021, the U.S. CPI index has accelerated its rise. At present, the year-on-year increase of US CPI has exceeded 5% for 12 consecutive months and exceeded 6% for 7 consecutive months; in March 2022, CPI rose by 8.5% year-on-year, refreshing its peak for more than 40 years; in April, the U.S. CPI rose by 8.3% year-on-year, and the U.S. inflation level is still at a high level. Multiple factors have led to high inflation in the United States. (1) At the beginning of 2020, in order to cope with the impact of the new crown epidemic, major global central banks represented by the Federal Reserve implemented an unlimited QE policy, resulting in global currency over-issuance; (2) Since 2020, the US government has launched many large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, which has driven a significant increase in demand; (3) The impact of the new crown epidemic has had a serious impact on the global supply chain; (4) US tariffs and sanctions against Russia have also led to shortage of supply. The above factors work together and lead to a continued rise in U.S. inflation.

Amid concerns about the recession, the pace of Fed rate hikes is expected to slow down, and U.S. inflation is difficult to alleviate. At the March 2022 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a hike of the federal fund rate target range by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since December 2018; at the May 2022 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a further hike of 50 basis points. Despite the continuous hawkish remarks in the early stages of the Federal Reserve, the minutes of the May 3-4 meeting released by the Federal Reserve reflect that the current Fed has not considered a more radical austerity policy, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is expected to slow down under recession concerns. On May 25 local time, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office released an economic outlook report saying: The high inflation situation in the United States will continue in the short term, and the U.S. consumer price index is expected to rise by 6.1% in 2022. Although the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI in April fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, it is still difficult to determine that US inflation has reached the turning point. Only when the Federal Reserve continues to vigorously raise interest rates and balance sheets, and with the elimination of the aforementioned inflation-influence factors, can the inflection point of inflation come. However, considering the downward pressure on the economy, it is expected that the U.S. inflation level will remain difficult to alleviate.

The pace of interest rate hikes is expected to slow down, inflation level continues to be high, gold prices are expected to rise further

It is expected that the real interest rate of US bonds will further decline in the future, and gold prices are expected to continue to rise. As concerns about recession are intensifying, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are restricted, and the recent nominal interest rate of US bonds has peaked and fallen; if the economic situation further deteriorates in the future, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's restart of quantitative easing is expected to further lower the nominal interest rate of US bonds. At the same time, if US inflation does not decline as expected, the market's confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation weakens, and inflation expectations will further rise.There is downward pressure on nominal interest rates, upward pressure on inflation expectations, and it is expected that the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds will fall further, and gold prices are expected to rise further.

(This article is for reference only and does not represent any of our investment advice. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)

selected report source: [Future Think Tank].

However, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gold and the US dollar have shown a rise and fall in the same way for most of the time. This is a typical manifestation pattern of the gold market when a risk event occurs. From the perspective of gold ETF holdings, since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF have continued to rise to a maximum of about 1,100 tons. Since mid-April, the market may have fully digested the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is mainly reflected in: (1) The US dollar index and gold price reappeared negative correlation; (2) The holdings of SPDR gold ETFs have basically fallen back to the level before the conflict.
Gold price is expected to rise further under concerns about stagflation and recession
Recession hikes are expected to slow down under concerns about the Fed's interest rate hikes are expected to slow down under concerns about the US Treasury rate curve, and recession concerns are intensifying. The inverted U.S. bond yields are forward-looking indicators for judging economic recession. Historically, U.S. bond yields will be inverted before every US economic recession. In early April 2022, the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields showed their first inversion since 2019. Market expectations for the US economic recession heated up, and expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve cooled down. Some investors even expected that if the US economy could not achieve a "soft landing", the Federal Reserve was likely to restart quantitative easing. Amid concerns about recession, the market expects the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is expected to slow down, and U.S. bond yields have peaked and fallen.
Inflation level continues to be high, and inflation is difficult to alleviate under recession concerns
US inflation level continues to be high. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, since March 2021, the U.S. CPI index has accelerated its rise. At present, the year-on-year increase of US CPI has exceeded 5% for 12 consecutive months and exceeded 6% for 7 consecutive months; in March 2022, CPI rose by 8.5% year-on-year, refreshing its peak for more than 40 years; in April, the U.S. CPI rose by 8.3% year-on-year, and the U.S. inflation level is still at a high level. Multiple factors have led to high inflation in the United States. (1) At the beginning of 2020, in order to cope with the impact of the new crown epidemic, major global central banks represented by the Federal Reserve implemented an unlimited QE policy, resulting in global currency over-issuance; (2) Since 2020, the US government has launched many large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, which has driven a significant increase in demand; (3) The impact of the new crown epidemic has had a serious impact on the global supply chain; (4) US tariffs and sanctions against Russia have also led to shortage of supply. The above factors work together and lead to a continued rise in U.S. inflation.

Amid concerns about the recession, the pace of Fed rate hikes is expected to slow down, and U.S. inflation is difficult to alleviate. At the March 2022 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a hike of the federal fund rate target range by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since December 2018; at the May 2022 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a further hike of 50 basis points. Despite the continuous hawkish remarks in the early stages of the Federal Reserve, the minutes of the May 3-4 meeting released by the Federal Reserve reflect that the current Fed has not considered a more radical austerity policy, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is expected to slow down under recession concerns. On May 25 local time, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office released an economic outlook report saying: The high inflation situation in the United States will continue in the short term, and the U.S. consumer price index is expected to rise by 6.1% in 2022. Although the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI in April fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, it is still difficult to determine that US inflation has reached the turning point. Only when the Federal Reserve continues to vigorously raise interest rates and balance sheets, and with the elimination of the aforementioned inflation-influence factors, can the inflection point of inflation come. However, considering the downward pressure on the economy, it is expected that the U.S. inflation level will remain difficult to alleviate.
The pace of interest rate hikes is expected to slow down, inflation level continues to be high, gold prices are expected to rise further
It is expected that the real interest rate of US bonds will further decline in the future, and gold prices are expected to continue to rise. As concerns about recession are intensifying, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are restricted, and the recent nominal interest rate of US bonds has peaked and fallen; if the economic situation further deteriorates in the future, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's restart of quantitative easing is expected to further lower the nominal interest rate of US bonds. At the same time, if US inflation does not decline as expected, the market's confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation weakens, and inflation expectations will further rise.There is downward pressure on nominal interest rates, upward pressure on inflation expectations, and it is expected that the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds will fall further, and gold prices are expected to rise further.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any of our investment advice. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
selected report source: [Future Think Tank].

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