Source: Energy R&D Center
Future market view
OPEC Before the meeting was held, oil prices started to rebound in the early trading on Monday. Obviously, the market expectations were very obvious, which was to judge that OPEC would likely have protection of the trading action at this conference. Soon the market funds will realize the expectations as action, especially domestic chemicals pressed the long option on Friday night trading, and the energy and chemical sector also led the commodity market on Monday.
In addition to the expectations brought by the OPEC meeting, the European natural gas price surged sharply again by more than 30%, which caused market anxiety, which also brought certain rebound energy to oil prices. After G7 announced a price limit on Russia's oil, Russia stopped the Nord River 1 gas supply on the grounds that sanctions from Western countries have caused problems in natural gas exports. The impact of energy sanctions on Russia on the market also continues to affect investor expectations.
At the evening OPEC+ meeting, it finally agreed to cut the oil production target by 100,000 barrels per day in October, and stated that if necessary, the Chairman will consider convening OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meetings at any time to deal with market development issues. This meeting is the continuation of the last OPEC+ cooperation expiration, with a production cut of 100,000 barrels per day. In the words of industry insiders, such a form of action is more important than the actual impact. This is a very clear attitude. Oil exporting countries are unwilling to let oil prices fall further. The decision to reduce production is more positive than the market expects to maintain production unchanged. Although it did not bring a very big impact to the market, oil prices still showed a significant volatile rebound trend. Under the influence of the European natural gas surge and the OPEC meeting, oil prices entered a rebound stage again in the short term.
OPEC September meeting is a very important turning point. OPEC has changed from the previous slow increase in production, which has made supply tight and maintained strong oil prices to the need to maintain the situation through production cuts. This also means the change in the crude oil market structure. It is difficult for investors to give oil prices an optimistic expectation. OPEC needs to work hard to maintain oil prices at a relatively high level. This effort will delay the downward movement of oil prices to a certain extent. Before macro pressure alleviates demand, it is difficult for oil prices to return to the bull market pattern. After the OPEC meeting, it can be seen from the performance of oil prices failing to maintain the high level in the day. Although the short-term rebound rhythm has entered a rebound rhythm, investors are more cautious when chasing the rise and pay attention to the rhythm.
Daily Dynamics
【1】WTI's main crude oil futures closed; Brent 's main crude oil futures closed up 2.72 US dollars, or 2.92%, to US$95.74 per barrel; INE crude oil futures closed up 1.62%, to RMB 707.2.
【2】 USD index rose 0.19% to 109.82; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange dollar rose 0.62% to 6.9529; the US 10-year Treasury bond fell 0.27% to 116.33; the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 1.07% to 31,318.44.
Recent News
【1】On Monday OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day in October. "This decision expresses our will to use all tools. This move also shows that we will remain focused, preemptive and proactive in supporting the stability and effective operation of the market." This decision surprised many traders, who had expected OPEC and its partners to keep oil production stable because oil prices above $90 per barrel would squeeze consumer demand.
In addition, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Kanani said on the 5th that Iran has rich oil and natural gas resources, and European countries are currently facing problems in energy supply. If the Iran nuclear issue comprehensive agreement on resumed compliance negotiations successfully and unilateral sanctions on Iran will be lifted, Iran "can meet a large part of Europe's needs." He said that the complete lifting of sanctions against Iran is Iran's main goal in the current negotiations. If the US has political will and takes constructive action, it will be possible to reach an agreement on the resumption of implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement.
【2】 Beixi-1” natural gas pipeline failed to restore gas supply to push European natural gas prices up again.On September 5, the price of natural gas in the European gas futures trading market rose by 72.5 euros to 281 euros per megawatt-hour, a sharp increase of 35% from the market price last Friday (2nd). Germany announced last week that the country's gas storage facilities had been filled by about 86%, and although it had not yet met the reserve target of 100% before the start of the heating season, it was already higher than government expectations and higher than the same period in previous years. In September last year, Germany's natural gas reserves were about 60%.
European Commission is facing criticism pressure as some member states are increasingly worried about the energy crisis . Russian President's press secretary Peskov said on September 5 that Western sanctions on Russia have caused problems in the maintenance of the "North Stream-1" natural gas pipeline. The current responsibility for the pipeline's stopping gas transmission lies entirely in Western sanctions. The sanctions have caused the components of the "North Stream-1" pipeline to be unable to be repaired and transported under legal protection. "It is the sanctions imposed by Western countries that lead to the current situation" and "no other reasons." He stressed that Russia refuses the West to put the responsibility of "death" on Russia, and the West "should be responsible for the development of the situation to the current situation."
【3】French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said last Saturday that the G7's efforts to set a price cap on Russian oil require a wider international commitment to succeed. G7 announced last Friday that they had agreed on a plan to impose fixed prices on Russian oil. This is the latest attempt to put economic pressure on Moscow on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Le Maire said that in addition to cutting Russia's oil revenue, the policy should be implemented as a "global measure against the war." Oil revenue is the main source of funding for Russian President Putin war fund. "You need an outreach because we don't want this measure to be just a Western measure," he added. "It shouldn't be a Western anti-Russian measure, but a global anti-war measure."
The G7, which consists of the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Japan, has not yet determined how to implement the price cap, and Le Maire acknowledged that the process will be "quite difficult".
However, the project is expected to be ready by early December, when EU will impose sanctions on Russian crude oil imported from sea.
He said: "We know that if we want to introduce this cap, we need solidarity among all 27 member states." He refers to the EU Group of States. But Le Maire said that in addition to that, the policy requires the participation of other major economies around the world.
Earlier, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson urged Asian countries to participate. Benefiting from the discount policy, Asian countries have increased their purchases of Russian oil this year. "If we want to implement these sanctions effectively, we need to reduce the revenue Russia earns from oil and gas sales," said Le Maire.
Russia has previously stated that it will not sell oil to countries that impose price restrictions. After the G7 was announced last Friday, Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom said that due to technical issues, natural gas delivery via Nord Stream 1 will not be restarted. Previously, gas supply was stopped last week due to planned "maintenance interruptions" and is expected to continue until September 3. EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Saturday that the EU is “preparing to” respond to Russia’s decision to stop supplying natural gas to the region.
Le Maire said that Europe has firmly opposed Russia through economic sanctions and international diplomatic means, which proves that the region's status as the "world's third largest superpower" is rising. "The situation is changing fundamentally. Europe is becoming a superpower, not only from an economic perspective, but also from a political perspective," he said. "I really think we are moving in the right direction to make Europe play a role between China and the United States in the 21st century."
Above chart data source Wenhua Finance IFINDHIT Futures Investment Consulting Department
This article is from the financial industry
