Mid-Autumn Festival just passed and National Day is approaching. At present, the domestic corn market is in a transitional period of grain supply. In the situation where new corn production cuts are strong and temporary corn auctions are high, the market speculation on price support and cautious waiting and watching are playing together, making the corn market full of opportunities and challenges in the later period.
Summer corn in the Huanghuai production areas of North China has been launched one after another. The advance sowing, the average temperature during growth is higher than usual, and the sunshine is more conducive to the accumulation of light and material. This year, the harvest period of most corn in Henan varies 2-5 days earlier than usual, and some areas in Shandong varies 5-14 days earlier. Judging from the recent prices, due to the increase in market volume and some farmers are also selling, the market supply has increased. Corn deep processing companies have taken the opportunity to lower prices. Many companies have continued to slightly lower the listing and purchase price of corn. As of now, it has been reduced by about 20 yuan/ton on average compared with last week. As the weather improves in the later period, the number of corn on sale will further increase, and the arrival of temporary storage corn auctions is expected to continue to show a weak trend after October.
htmlOn September 25, Shandong Shouguang Jin Corn local corn listed for purchase price of 1,840 yuan/ton, Xinfeng starch 1,836 yuan/ton, Zhucheng Xingmao 1,914 yuan/ton, Changle Yingxuan 1,920 yuan/ton, some of which were slightly reduced by 2 cents/jin. The listing purchase price of Tianjia Biochemical and above third-class corn in Luohe, Henan is 1,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of Feitian, Hebi.
At present, a small amount of new corn has been listed in the Northeast production area, including Heilongjiang Fujin Xiangyu, Liaoning Yihai Kerry , Inner Mongolia plum blossom and other companies have begun to purchase new grain, but most of the new corns are still more than half a month away. According to the on-site research, it has been a foregone conclusion that the production cuts in major production areas such as Liaoning and Jilin this year. Among them, the first line of the Golden Corn Belt in Jilin has suffered production and quality reductions due to adverse weather such as spring drought and summer drought. According to meteorological forecasts, some areas of Northeast China will experience early frost, rainfall and other weather in the near future, which may affect the local corn quality.
htmlOn September 25, Inner Mongolia Yipin Bio launched a scale to purchase new season corn, with a unit price of 1,760 yuan/ton, requiring moisture content within 14%, and above 14.1% will be deducted at 1:1.2 and 1:1.3 respectively, and the volume required is above 685. The purchase price of 20% water of the newly produced corn tide grain in Fujin Xiangyu, Heilongjiang is 1,470 yuan/ton, and the drying fee is 1,570 yuan/ton. The purchase unit price of new corn produced by Bayuquan Port in 2018 is 1780-1810 yuan/ton, with a required capacity of 690-720, a moisture content of 14.5-15%, the mainstream purchase price is 1810 yuan/ton, with a moisture content of 15, a moisture content of 700, and a moldy 2; the price of old grain is 1740-1750 yuan/ton. The purchase price of 30% corn produced by Jinzhou Port in 2018 is 1,460 yuan/ton, and 1,800-1,820 yuan/ton of 15% water; old grain price: the mainstream purchase price of 1,770-1,800 yuan/ton in 2017 is 1,770-1,800 yuan/ton, with a moisture content of less than 14%, and a weight of more than 700. The mainstream purchase price of auctioned corn is 1,770-1,800 yuan/ton, with a weight of more than 700.
In addition, from the perspective of imports, according to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, my country's imports of corn and its substitutes both showed a downward trend in August. Among them, the import volume of corn in August was about 330,000 tons, basically the same month-on-month, down 13% year-on-year; the cumulative imports from January to August were 2.877 million tons, an increase of 42% year-on-year. In August, the import volume of barley was about 550,000 tons, a decrease of 8% month-on-month and a decrease of 30% year-on-year; from January to August, a total of 5.5507 million tons were imported, a decrease of 8% year-on-year. In August, the import volume of sorghum was about 60,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 73% and a year-on-year decrease of 77%; from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 3.53 million tons were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 8%.
After the National Day, the new season of corn in the main production areas will gradually enter the peak period of purchase. Although many grain-using companies have supplemented a large amount of old grain inventory in the early stage, and the auction transaction rate of corn storage has remained high in the past month. Among them, nearly 13 million tons were sold in the three trade fairs in September, many processing companies still showed great interest in new corn. After October, the market will jointly supply the market in the short term, and the game of spot purchase and sales may become more intense. However, with the gradual increase in the amount of new corn, while the inventory of old grain is still in the digestion stage, it is expected that the corn prices in the market may enter a volatile consolidation stage. The phased characteristics will be obvious, and the overall trend will be in a gradual upward trend under the phased market. (Comprehensive information of grain small cafe, information from General Administration of Customs, etc.)
