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has been 25 years since 1993.
Mr. Cheng Jialong joined Dade Bell Walk in 1993. 2018 is the 25th year of Date Bell Walk in Shenzhen and the 25th year of Cheng Jialong at Date Bell Walk in 2018.
018 is still the 38th year of Shenzhen’s establishment of the Special Zone, and the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up.From this set of data, it can be seen that Mr. Cheng Jialong has personally experienced the growth of Shenzhen, from Shenzhen The first KFC in Shenzhen does market research, and then provides services for the introduction of the first LV store in Shenzhen, as well as property management business of many projects such as Diwang Building. These projects are typical representatives of Shenzhen's rapid development.
First met Mr. Cheng Jialong, and the impression I gave me: stern, atmospheric, calm and elegant. The office of Ding Liangxing is located in the Kerry Construction Plaza in Futian CBD, directly opposite Shenzhen Central City. Our exclusive interview was also held on the 5th floor of this super business center.
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1 The real estate market is on a downward trend
Default Bell Bank's business has increased year-on-year
As soon as we arrived at the office of Default Bell Bank, the warm and atmospheric layout attracted us. Just two days after Christmas, the red pots purchased to celebrate the festival are neatly displayed on the staff's seats, and the office decorated with them looks more vibrant. The wall full of honor records the company's achievements in its development history, and witnesses the transition from Shenzhen's growth period to its prosperity period.
The predecessor of DEAST Shenzhen Company was Leung Chun-ying Surveyor Company, founded in 1993. At present, Dard & Bank is located in more than 70 countries around the world, with 48,000 professional employees. It is one of the world's largest real estate service providers and the largest international real estate consulting company in Greater China. In 2017 and 2018, the company's operating income reached US$6.9 billion in 2017.
, a company with deep accumulation, was established even in 1784. As the world's leading real estate service provider, Cheng Jialong, vice president of Greater China, and managing director of South China and West China, has participated in countless well-known projects in Shenzhen, and has witnessed the multiple changes and ups and downs of Shenzhen's real estate over the past 25 years.
After strict regulation in recent years, the entire Shenzhen market has officially entered a downward adjustment stage, and the rapid rise in housing prices has also been effectively controlled. In 2018, the "three-price in one" and "731 new policy" were added. In the second half of the year, the Shenzhen real estate market showed inverted first- and second-hand houses, lower quotations of second-hand house owners, and lower prices of developers' promotions. Some people directly described the Shenzhen real estate market as "cold winter".
In this environment, CAD & B Bank's performance in 2018 showed a significant year-on-year increase. Cheng Jialong attributes this achievement to the consistent high-level real estate consulting and consulting services and diversified business development of Ding Fang.
He admitted that the adjustment of the real estate market has some impact on them, but it is relatively not very large. "As a company engaged in real estate services, Date Asset Management has a wide range of business and diverse services. It can not only do industrial research for the government and office planning for large technology enterprises, but also provide real estate planning and rental and sales agents for developers. It can also sort out and evaluate assets for state-owned enterprises, and provide services for small owners' real estate transactions. At the same time, some businesses are still in the upward process. Therefore, Date Asset Management can still achieve gratifying results against the market." When talking about Date Asset Management's good achievements and business scope in 2018, Cheng Jialong talked happily, as Jiazhen.
He also added that the impact was on residential sales and comprehensive agency, mainly due to the slowdown in sales in the second half of the year. Even for projects sold, due to the slowdown in bank loan approval, there will be some impact, but overall it is not big.
"Overall, the company's business in 2018 has grown a certain amount compared with last year, and has been less affected. We are also constantly innovating our business, hoping to provide comprehensive professional real estate services to all development companies, investment institutions or governments." Cheng Jialong proudly said that he did not forget the sense of corporate mission he shouldered.
2It is difficult for real estate companies to "survive"?
The past pattern has changed! In the future, the comprehensive capabilities of developers will be tested more
For developers, the real estate market in 2018 may be compared to a "test".
As a professional institution that provides global consulting services, there are many companies that provide services to DID Asphalt. Speaking of the representative event of "Vanke shouting to live" in 2018, Cheng Jialong believes that "survival is the long-term development strategy of the company that every company should think about in the face of market changes. Vanke's proposal to "survival" shows that he has strategic thinking about future development."
He also listed the real estate companies he served in recent years and analyzed to us that from the development strategies he has made for many real estate companies in the past, he found that the competition among real estate companies is no longer limited to land reserves, and whether to hold and operate high-quality projects has become an increasingly important influencing factor.
"In the early years, people valued whether there is land reserve and land reserve. If there is a project sale in the next few years, they can budget for how much sales can grow. But today, in addition to project sales, they should also hold and operate high-quality projects to maintain a relatively stable growth in revenue."
He analyzed that the current competition in the real estate market is no longer limited to the residential market, but also in comparisons between Grade A office buildings, cultural and sports, or complexes, industrial parks loaded with industries, etc. These areas are less affected by real estate regulation policies, and the rental income or other income brought by operations are relatively stable.
In the early years, when the real estate market environment was good, as long as there was housing and sales, it could generate profits. In the future, it would be more important to value the comprehensive capabilities of developers. At the same time, the operation of various high-quality properties (such as high-quality office buildings, shopping centers, and industrial parks) is the ability that developers should have, said Cheng Jialong.
In addition, he also believes that in the downward environment of the property market, it may not be very "friendly" to small developers.
"Because this has been happening in recent years, some small developers have no projects or only one residential project, and suddenly sales stagnate, they will face difficulties. But most large developers have already started preparing a few years ago, such as Vanke and Xinghe Real Estate. Their industrial parks and commercial operations are very good. Jingke was established in the early days, and China Merchants Real Estate used to do Nanhai Yiku, etc., and also hold high-quality office buildings. From the perspective of company strategy, they have made preparations a few years ago."
In addition, he also suggested that real estate companies should be good at borrowing external brains and professional outsourcing. As a real estate company, comprehensive capabilities are very important, not only limited to development and sales, but also require the operational capabilities of various properties. He also listed companies that are developing better now, such as China Merchants, Vanke, Jindi, Xinghe, etc., and they have always cooperated with consulting institutions a lot. Relying on the consulting services provided by professional forces and various types of professional institutions will help ensure the long-term development of the company.
3Will rent continue to rise in the future?
Long-term rental apartments need to be standardized
Since the beginning of last year, rents in Shenzhen have been in a state of rising. Until July, Shenzhen's rents soared, with a year-on-year increase of 29.68% in July, the largest increase in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Among them, the emergence of long-term rental apartments to a large number of houses enter the market rapidly is also a major reason for the increase in rents. Some people also classify long-term rental apartments as "the culprit", believing that it directly pushed up surrounding rents.
"Long-term Rental Apartment" once became a major keyword in 2018.
Regarding this statement, Cheng Jialong said that the rental market, as an important part of the construction of long-term mechanisms, is conducive to promoting the stable development of the real estate market. For young people who come to Shenzhen who cannot afford to buy a house, they can rent a house at a low price, which is not only conducive to reducing living costs, but also helps to reduce the popularity of the trading market.
At the same time, he believes that long-term rental apartments are conducive to stabilizing the rental trend, but the premise is that the government plays a regulatory role in it. "If the rent is too high, the supply can be increased. The rental market changes relatively quickly. If the government has enough long-term rental housing or talent apartments to launch it into the market, it will play a certain role in keeping the rent stable."
In addition, he also believes that the development of long-term rental apartments is what the market needs. Part of it is policy-based long-term rental apartments. The government provides talent apartments to attract more high-end talents, while blue-collar apartments are conducive to the grassroots service personnel who are new to Shenzhen to work hard. The other part is high-end serviced apartments, which are used to provide high-end people who have emerged with the continuous development of Shenzhen. High-end serviced apartments are also an important part of long-term rental apartments. Long-term rental apartments should ultimately include diversified products such as high-end, mid-end and low-end.
He is very optimistic about the future development prospects of long-term rental apartments. "I believe that the demand for the high-end market will increase, the mid-end market will grow, and the market will have broad development prospects. "
. Regarding the phenomenon that enterprises participate in the transformation of farmers' houses into long-term rental apartments, which leads to the increase in rents in the surrounding areas, he analyzed, "In the short term, some people use long-term rental apartments to speculate on some concepts. Some companies in Shenzhen may use long-term rental apartments to speculate on company stock prices, but in the long term, the people will see clearly that only the real service apartments will be accepted by the people. "
He believes that long-term rental apartments are in the early stages of development, and some problems will definitely arise. Through continuous improvement, the market will be healthier, and the people will also realize what kind of services are their needs.
He also said that re-planning the area and increasing rents is a reasonable behavior. "Because the environment and product quality have been improved, some people are able to enjoy this product, and the market should provide it. The market has a diverse customer base, but the government should provide basic services to ensure the needs of some people; it also hopes that companies can invest and build high-quality apartments to meet the high-end needs of the market. "
In addition, he believes that the government can limit the rent pricing of policy-based housing, but when market-oriented rental houses meet various standards such as safety and fire protection, the rental level should be determined by the market and should not be intervened too much.
"Market-oriented products should let the market determine the price as long as the market has the ability to accept it. Of course, it is a residential property after all. If it is too high, the government will also need to control it. "Cheng Jialong added.
4Can Shenzhen housing prices surpass Hong Kong?
The "leader" of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area must be Shenzhen?
At the end of December last year, exact news came out of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and will be officially released at the beginning of next year. It was also written into the communiqué of the Central Economic Work Conference. The fourth key task of 2019 will be led in the future with Hong Kong, Macao, Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the center. The construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has driven the innovative and green development of Pearl River -Xijiang Economic Belt.
In the past two years, there have been constant controversy about the "leader" of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
Regarding this controversy, Cheng Jialong bluntly stated, "Dade & Bank has held two Greater Bay Area forums this year and released the "Greater Bay Area Industrial Development Research Report". We have done a lot of research on the industries of 9+2 cities in the Greater Bay Area, and Shenzhen must be in a leading position in it. "
He believes that first of all, Shenzhen's economic development is fast, full of vitality, and has strong innovation capabilities. On the other hand, the government has strong support for scientific and technological innovation. Some new technologies have been improved through R&D in Shenzhen and will be put into production soon, with extremely high efficiency.
"The market atmosphere is also very strong, with many listed companies, and the growth of high-tech, finance, and high-end services industries has strong growth. These all provide a very good atmosphere and opportunities for the development of enterprises. I believe that Shenzhen should play a leading role in the Greater Bay Area, because Shenzhen is an innovation highland and has certain financial support. "Cheng Jialong said.
In addition, he also believes that although the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan has not been issued yet, the integration of the Bay Area cities has been rapidly advancing, and the government and enterprises are already working hard to do this.
talked about whether Shenzhen's housing prices will exceed that of Hong Kong in the future. He said, "It is possible that Shenzhen is constantly developing and following Hong Kong. This is one aspect. On the other hand, Shenzhen has limited land and rapid population growth. With the development of the economy in the future, more and more high-end people will be, and the demand for high-end housing will also increase. The demand for high-end housing will naturally promote the emergence of top residential products, so there will be opportunities in the next few years.”
He also added that some areas like Qianhai, Shekou, Nanshan and Futian will be the areas with the highest housing prices in the future. As for whether housing prices in other non-first-tier cities in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao will rise, he believes that it is mainly related to local industrial development and population growth. As long as the industry develops, housing prices will naturally rise slowly in the future.
5The direction of the real estate market in 2019?
Can buy the bottom in some areas! There are opportunities to buy a house
When it comes to the direction of the real estate market in 2019, whether there is an opportunity to "buy the bottom". Cheng Jialong believes, "The overall economy is not very good now. Real estate has just begun to adjust. There may be a little adjustment in 2019. After a small adjustment, you will face the opportunity to enter a mobile phone, but it also depends on the region. Some areas will enter a mobile phone earlier, and some areas will be later. "
He also said that he would not see a rapid rise in housing prices in the short term. If housing prices have some downward and just need to buy a house, he can buy at the bottom in some areas. At the same time, the price limit policy has led to the conservative pricing of some real estate projects, which has also brought more choice opportunities.
At the same time, he also predicted that there may be certain adjustments in 2019 in the short term. On the one hand, Shenzhen has a relatively large demand due to the increase in population. On the other hand, due to the transaction volume in the second half of 2018 Due to the impact of the downturn, there may be some small rebound in 2019, and the transaction volume may increase. Therefore, he believes that there will be some opportunities in 2019, and you can find high-quality properties in different areas.
Recommendations for high-quality areas and properties, Cheng Jialong shared with us their research results.
"We have also done some research on the planning and development of the region, such as Longhua area, but it has increased a lot at present. Bao'an Airport, Fuyong , Xixiang, Guangming, and the areas close to Dongguan Chang'an have relatively large space. In the future, we will also look at new subway plans. Rail transit will naturally bring new opportunities. Xili's current housing prices are not particularly high. Xili's environment is very good, and it is relatively close to the central area and Qianhai. "
At the same time, he also believes that Gaoxin South and Gaoxin North are also good choices. The future technology corridor will arrive at Guangming District , passing through Shiyan in the middle. At present, Shiyan housing prices are not very high, the environment is good, and they are relatively close to the city center, and they are both optional areas. In addition, he also believes that projects next to rail transit will have some opportunities in the future. If there is a new rail line planning, Longgang and Pinghu will also have opportunities.
Regarding whether there will be relaxation in 2019, he believes that "in the current market situation, the regulation is to hope that housing prices will develop steadily, and new policies will not be introduced under the stable state. "But the government always hopes to stabilize housing prices and rents. If there is a rapid increase in the new year, there may be policies, he added.
018 hot topics Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Shenzhen-Shanshan Cooperation Zone Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Hetao Region Real Estate Tax Rights Protection Land auction failed to sell
Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone
[Question] Future housing prices in Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone?
[Cheng Jialong]: I think the Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone is a model of domestic regional cooperation. It used to be a cooperation zone. Now, as a "enclave" of Shenzhen, it is an independent area managed by Shenzhen. This will be easier for the development of Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone. Shenzhen makes independent decisions and independently support its development. Shenzhen itself has a relatively small hinterland. , The places that can accommodate industries are getting smaller and smaller, and it is also good to have such a large area to place some new industries. Shenzhen itself plays a leading role in the Greater Bay Area. The Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone is equivalent to providing a new carrier for Shenzhen's industrial development. I believe there will be good development in the future. This mechanism is very good.
. House prices are a slow increase. It depends on what kind of industries and how many talents are there. After all, the housing prices in surrounding cities are relatively low, so housing prices cannot suddenly rise high.
Shenzhen-Hong Kong Hetao Region
[Question] Future prospects of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Hetao Region?
[Cheng Jialong]: Many years ago, I attended a planning seminar organized by the Planning and Land Resources Commission. I think the launch of the Hetao area in Shenzhen and Hong Kong is still slow. It may be because it involves the issue of multi-party coordination. I think such a good region should develop as soon as possible. Its development also has advantages. The land ownership belongs to Shenzhen, but Hong Kong management. At present, we are promoting cooperation in the Greater Bay Area. This land can be used as a very good case for cooperation between Shenzhen and Hong Kong to promote better integration of Shenzhen and Hong Kong. This project is also conducive to Shenzhen's further understanding of Hong Kong's excellent management experience and good policies. Shenzhen can also place industrial development and high-tech development experience in the Shenzhen-Hotaka region. Everyone can communicate with each other and cooperate together, so that Hetao can develop very well.
Real Estate Tax
[Question] Will real estate tax be issued in 2019?
[Cheng Jialong]: I don’t know very well. I believe it will not be launched in the short term. Currently, housing prices are relatively stable. Even if property tax is introduced, the details in it are related. If the property tax is not issued, it will have a very impact on the price. The formulation of the details needs to be comprehensively considered.
Rights Protection
[Question] How do you view the emergence of rights protection in many places in 2018?
[Cheng Jialong]: Rights protection must be viewed from two aspects. One is whether the quality has been accepted. If it has been accepted and the quality is qualified, we should not criticize the developer. If the rights protection is caused by price changes, such as the price drops, it is often more likely to be protected, so it depends on the essence of the rights protection.
Land auction
[Question] The land auction market in 2019?
[Cheng Jialong]: The land auction market is closely related to the sales market. If the sales market or second-hand market transactions are more active, everyone will have more confidence. In addition, we also need to look at the real estate development funds. Due to purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price restrictions, etc. this year, developers do not want to sell their houses so quickly. The products are backlogged in their hands. The funds on hand are not very abundant, so they will not invest too much. If the sales turn better next year or funds are recovered and new projects are needed, people will naturally go to the auction.
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