text Wangjing Bog (please indicate the source when reprinting)
At present, the largest Chinese fund in the market is E Fund Chinese Internet ETF (513050), with an asset scale of 30.7 billion. Recently, there are always people asking Wangjing Bog about the premium rate of the Internet in China. Next, Wangjing Bog will have a good chat with you:
1. Why is there a premium? What is the premium rate?
For example, when Apple phones were first launched, the official price was 8,000 yuan, but due to limited shipment volume, people are rushing to buy them but still can't buy them, so there is a scalper market. New Apple phones bought from scalpers may be sold for 9,600 yuan. The price of
scalpers is 9600 yuan more expensive than the official price of 8000 yuan. This difference of 1600 is the premium (of Apple phones), and the premium rate is equal to 9600÷8000-1=20%. Everyone knows that this premium is short-term. After a while, after the shipment of Apple has increased, the premium disappears and may even be discounted.
The reason for the current premium of the Internet (513050) is that as a QDII product, each fund company has its own foreign exchange quota. Therefore, the above products are repeatedly restricted from purchasing products due to the fact that bottom-up are being purchased one after another, and then the fund company has to apply for foreign exchange quota and can only be opened after approval.
is just like the early stage of Apple's mobile phone listing. The demand is greater than the supply, resulting in the trading price of Chinese ETFs being greater than the net value, which is the so-called premium. If the foreign exchange quota is approved to increase again, the limit of the Chinese ETF will be opened. After the supply and demand balance is balanced, the trading price of the Chinese ETF will be equal to the net value and the premium will disappear.
In the capital market, investors should avoid premium products.
For example, a fund purchase restriction is limited, and the share with a net value of 1.00 yuan is sold for 1.200 yuan, with a premium rate = (1.2-1)/1=20%;
suddenly one day, the fund purchase restriction is cancelled, the fund premium disappears, and the net value is still 1.0, but investors will cause the 1.200 yuan price to fall back to 1.00 yuan due to the disappearance of the premium, with a direct loss of 0.2 yuan, and the direct loss rate =-0.2/1.2=-16.7%.
For smart investors, when you see premium assets, you need to find reasons for premiums and conduct arbitrage transactions;
For ordinary investors, you should not think about avoiding investing in premium assets.
2. Accurately calculate the premium rate
In trading, the precise premium rate should be calculated using the fund's intraday valuation.
But! There is a very confusing problem with the net worth reference standard!
Take the Chinese Internet as an example:
(1) T-2 premium rate In the financial market, T represents the day, T-1 represents the first trading day (the previous trading day), and T-2 represents the second trading day (the previous trading day). Due to cross-border transactions, we can see the net value of T-2 in general QDII fund for .
For example, the trading price at T time is 0.865 yuan, and the net value of T-2 is 0.879 yuan. We can calculate that
T-2 premium rate = (T price ÷T-2 net value)-1: 0.865/0.879-1= -1.59%
The premium calculated in this way is actually negative, which means that the fund is in a discount state now, and buying directly is more appropriate than subscription. However, if you think about it carefully, the has hit the limit for two consecutive days. There is definitely a problem with this calculation!
(2) T-1 premium rate
Chinese ETF risk warning (IOPV) premium rate is actually T-1 premium rate:
Chinese ETF 8
Chinese 4 component stocks contain US stocks and Hong Kong stocks . On T-1, Hong Kong stocks were traded in the same day as our a stocks (just ended later), but on T-1, US stocks were traded in the evening (relative to ours).
When trading in T, the US stocks on T-1 had closed at night. We can estimate the net value of T-1's fund based on the T-1 constituent stocks (including the increase in Hong Kong and US stocks). This is the IOPV of China Internet. We don't need to calculate this, but someone has already calculated it for us.The trading price of
T time is 0.865 yuan, and the IOPV (that is, the net value of T-1) is 0.784 yuan. We can calculate that the premium rate of T-1 is equal to the price of T divided by the net value of T-1 by one: 0.865/0.784-1= 10.33%
This premium rate of 10.33% is the actual premium rate in our market software. However, considering the T-day trading time, Hong Kong stocks are actually traded. The largest constituent stock of China Internet Network Tencent fell by more than 10%, and the premium calculated based on the net value of T-1 is not particularly accurate.
(3) T premium rate
Chinese Internet top three weight stocks are:
Tencent, with a weight of 31.5%, and an intraday increase and decline of 10.19%;
Alibaba , with a weight of 22.2%, which is Alibaba's US stock market has not yet opened ;
Meituan , with a weight of 14.01%, and an intraday increase and decline of -5.86%.
Since Alibaba is listed in the US and Hong Kong stock markets, we can use the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks on the same day instead of the rise and fall of US stocks. Alibaba's Hong Kong stock market rose and fell by -11.93%. Based on the weight and rise and fall of other components of China Internet, we estimate that the T-day decline of the China Internet Index is about -8%. This place is only an estimate, because Hong Kong stocks Alibaba fell, and Alibaba in the US stock market may not necessarily fall, and the opening time is different, and the market information is changing.
If the estimated net value of T-1 is 0.784, then the estimated net value of T is equal to 0.784 times (1+China Estimated Rate of Rate), and 0.784 times (1-8%) is equal to 0.721. The trading price of
T time is 0.865 yuan, and the estimated net value of T is 0.721 yuan, so the premium rate of T is equal to the price of T divided by T is reduced by one; 0.865/0.721-1=20.0%
This premium rate of 20.0% is a relatively actuarial premium rate. That is to say, the net value of the fund that everyone buys the Chinese ETF shares at a price of 0.865 is only 0.721. This is only the net value of the 15th-day Chinese ETF estimated by Wangjing Bog. The official will announce this accurate net value on the evening of the 16th. You can compare it at that time.
Finally, let’s summarize. The three premiums calculated on March 15 with the Chinese ETF (can also be calculated in real time during the trading session) are: the premium rate of
T-2 is -1.59%; the premium rate of
T-1 is 10.33%; the premium rate of
T is 20.0%; the premium rate of
T is 20.0%; the accuracy of the premium rate is increased in sequence, and the difficulty of calculation will also be increased.
T-2 premium rate is calculated based on the net value of T-2 funds;
T-1 premium rate is calculated based on the IOPV (T-1 fund valuation);
T premium rate is calculated based on the valuation of T funds;
unknowingly wrote 2,000 words, simplifying it for everyone:
Remember, for things with premiums, we ordinary investors try not to touch things, because premiums are bubbles, and they may break one day. Once the premium disappears, it will bring real losses to investors!
The off-market funds we buy usually have no premium. If there are any ETFs and LOFs that have small premiums for Hong Kong stocks or no premiums, please leave a message!
will talk so much today, and follow Wangjing Boge to watch the real-time sales!
