Basic conclusions
. 8 years of public investment management experience, Liu Gesong is currently the product performance "turned up"
Fund manager Liu Gesong: Currently, the general manager of the growth investment department of Guangfa Fund Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as " Guangfa Fund "), and has served for more than 8 years in total. Liu Gesong has managed a total of 16 fund products and 6 under management. As of the second quarter of 2022, the total scale of Liu Gesong's products under management reached 68.472 billion yuan. As of September 27, 2022, the current management of "GF Industry Strictly Selected Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A", "GF Technology Pioneer Mixed", "GF Diversified Emerging Stocks", "GF Dual Engine Upgrade Mixed A", "GF Innovation Upgrade Mixed", and "GF Small Cap Growth Mixed (LOF) A" have fallen by -19.75%, -19.66%, -21.15%, -16.14%, -13.58%, and -12.55% respectively this year. The yields of the in-service management funds have all been negative, among which "GF Technology Pioneer Mixed" and "GF Diversified Emerging Stocks" have achieved returns of -7.31% and -5.89% in the past two years, which are significantly lost compared with the same average yield rate.
2. In 2019, "Get Fame in One Battle", it is difficult to recreate the public offering myth
Fund managers have obvious signs of packaging. The three funds managed by Liu Gesong in 2019 have been ranked among the top three active equity funds. But before that, Liu Gesong issued funds at the peak of the bull market in 2015, and then stepped on the mine; the "Rongtong Internet Media" and " Rongtong New Regional and New Economy" he managed were almost halfway. However, despite the fact that the funds he managed were almost half-cut, Liu Gesong resolutely switched to GF Fund to achieve the myth of "the number one public offering leader". In 2020, Liu Gesong hid behind the gorgeous packaging marketing of GF Fund, and the market often ignores the identification of fund manager Liu Gesong's methodology. From a long-term perspective, the market and performance have an average regression effect. For fund managers whose investment methodology happens to be in the market style and whose annualized returns are too high, it is necessary to reduce long-term return expectations. GF Industry strictly selects three-year holding period mixed A and its typical representative of its managed funds. Another result of excessive packaging is the surge in scale. With the growth of scale, the previous excess returns by betting on a few small receipts is no longer effective, and the liquidity of small receipts no longer supports daily large-scale redemption. Under this situation, Liu Gesong's betting choices are narrower, and the above problems have also laid the root of his large-scale fund management this year.
Fund return rate is negative, and the industry allocation is drifting. Judging from the performance curve of GF Industry's strict selection of three-year holding period mixed A, the fund's product returns have been negative in the vast time range since its establishment in August 2021. The historical performance curve is also behind the vast time range compared with , and similar funds. As of September 27 this year, the rate of return on employment was -19.75%. While obtaining negative returns in the past, GF Industry strictly selected the maximum drawdown of Mixed A in three-year holding period reached -43.23%, which is basically at the end of similar products in the market. At the same time, under different market environments, the product has shown poor performance elasticity, which is related to fund manager Liu Gesong's betting investment: the allocation of manufacturing in the fund industry is as high as 93.55% higher than the average of similar products (as of June 30, 2022).
stock performance crashed, with high market value negative profits. GF Industry strictly selected Cialis, which has a heavy holding in three-year holding period mixed A. As of the second quarter of this year, its net profit was negative, ranking second to the bottom in the same industry, and its net profit has been negative since 2020. In addition, Cialis' core data in other aspects is far inferior to the industry average. Selis has surged in the short term in the stock market, and the profit of market has risen sharply, and the price and value are seriously diverging. However, Liu Gesong ignored his operating conditions and increased his position at the price at which the stock price was above its value, trying to speculate in the manufacturing industry. In terms of stock selection logic, Liu Gesong betrayed the investment philosophy of starting from the fundamentals and choosing a target with high growth and long-term holding, and chose to take risks even further under the bet investment method: he chose a stock that relies on brand awareness rather than his own company strength.
Betting investment when manufacturing is at a high level. Compared with other value investment fund managers, Liu Gesong's investment style belongs to the betting investment of high positions , concentrated holdings and selection of specific industry tracks. This methodology is permeated with his investment philosophy. This investment method relies on the market style and has high risks. If the market suddenly changes, it is easy to return to its original form. When the manufacturing market was hot, GF Industry Strict Selection Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A managed by Liu Gesong resolutely chose to increase its holdings in Cialis. From March 31 to June 30, 2022, Cialis's share of the fund's net value increased from 6.61% to 10.86%, and it still insisted on increasing its holdings at a high level, even at this time, Cialis and even the entire manufacturing industry's stock price have begun to break down.
1, Introduction to the fund manager
Liu Gesong, currently the general manager of the Growth Investment Department of GF Fund Management Co., Ltd., has managed a total of 16 fund products and a total of 6 fund products under management. As of the second quarter of this year, the total scale of products under management reached 68.472 billion yuan. As of September 27, 2022, the current management of "GF Industry Strictly Selected Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A", "GF Technology Pioneer Mixed", "GF Diversified Emerging Stocks", "GF Dual Engine Upgrade Mixed A", "GF Innovation Upgrade Mixed", and "GF Small Cap Growth Mixed (LOF) A" have fallen by -19.75%, -19.66%, -21.15%, -16.14%, -13.58%, and -12.55% respectively this year. The yields of the in-service management funds have all been negative, and their performance has lagged behind in the same category. Among them, "GF Technology Pioneer Mixed" and "GF Diversified Emerging Stocks" have achieved returns of -7.31% and -5.89% respectively in the past two years, which are significantly lost compared with the average yields of similar types of funds.
Liu Gesong served in many funds with negative returns, and the fund managers' packaging traces were obvious. In 2019, the funds managed by Liu Gesong were among the top three active equity funds. As of the second quarter of this year, none of the funds under Liu Gesong's management had positive returns this year, and historical promises were not fulfilled. As the scale grows, the previous way of obtaining excess returns by betting on a few small receipts is no longer effective, and similar rankings have fallen to the middle level, and the "public offering number one" may be falling from the altar.
2. Representative product analysis: GF Industry Strictly Selected Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A
. Basic Product Situation
On August 26, 2021, Liu Gesong began to manage the "GF Industry Strictly Selected Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A". The fund type of the product is equity-oriented mixed fund, stock investment accounts for 60%-95% of the fund assets, and the performance benchmark is Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index yield * 60% + RMB-denominated Hang Seng Index yield * 25% + CSI All Bond Index yield * 15%. Since Liu Gesong took office, the overall scale of product has been on a downward trend. As of the second quarter of this year, the scale of fund reached 13.061 billion yuan. From the perspective of holder structure, the individual holding ratio is as high as 99.65%.
Judging from the net asset scale of GF Industry's strict selection of three-year holding period mixed A, the net asset scale of funds decreased significantly in the first quarter of this year and rebounded slightly in the second quarter. As of September 27 this year, the yield of funds in all time intervals this year has been negative, with a cumulative yield of -19.75%. While obtaining negative returns in the past, GF Industry strictly selected the maximum drawdown of mixed A in three-year holding period to -43.23%, which is a very high drawdown rate, indicating that the fund's risk control management is poor and has a low risk-return ratio.
compares the performance trends of GF Industry's strict selection of three-year holding period mixed A with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and similar averages this year. It can be seen that GF Industry's strict selection of three-year holding period mixed A accelerated decline during the market fluctuation period from February to April. Judging from the yield level, GF Industry strictly selected the performance of the three-year holding period mixed A, which has far underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the industry average returns this year. GF Industry strictly selected three-year holding period mixed-use market for a long period of continuous underperform, which indicates that the selected industry of the fund is not performing well. GF Industry's strict selection of three-year holding period mixed A is weaker among similar funds in the industry, which reflects the lack of Liu Gesong's ability to select stocks and timing.
. Betting-based investment, historical commitments have not been fulfilled
. GF Industry managed by Liu Gesong, strictly selected three-year holding period mixed A, and this year, from March 31 to June 30, Seris accounted for 6.61% to 10.86%.
Specifically, as of March 31, 2022, the top ten stocks in the GF Industry's strict selection of the three-year holding period mixed A holdings are Longi Green Energy, Jingao Technology, Sunshine Power Supply , Zhengtai Electrical Appliances , Fords , Shengbang Shares , Yiyi Lithium Energy , Cialis, Rongsheng Petrochemical , and Great Wall Motor , respectively, accounting for 9.52%, 9.44%, 9.2%, 9.02%, 8.01%, 7.74%, 7.49%, 6.61%, 5.51%, and 4.96%, respectively.
Specifically, as of June 30, 2022, the top ten stocks in the three-year holding period Mixed A holdings were Cialis, Longi Green Energy, Jingao Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Sungrow Power, Chint Electric Appliances, Shengbang Co., Ltd., Fords, Great Wall Motors, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, accounting for 10.86%, 10.4%, 10.1%, 9.27%, 8.84%, 7.12%, 6.62%, 6.39%, 6.39%, and 4.85% of the fund's net value ratio, respectively.
and it should be noted that Cialis' stock price in June has reached its top. However, Liu Gesong still insisted on increasing his position at a high level, and at this time, the stock price of Cialis and even the entire manufacturing industry had begun to break down.
Compared with other value investment fund managers, Liu Gesong's investment style is a bet-based investment with high positions, concentrated holdings, and selection of specific industry tracks. This methodology is permeated with his investment philosophy. This investment method relies on the market style and has high risks. If the market suddenly changes, it is easy to return to its original form.
As of the second quarter of this year, none of Liu Gesong's funds under management have positive returns this year, and his historical commitments have not been fulfilled. The investment philosophy of "From the fundamentals, we should choose high-growth targets and hold them for a long time" has become empty talk.
. The goodwill of the stock selection brand is too high, and the stock price and value diverge
. At the stock selection level, GF Industry strictly selected the three-year holding period mixed A heavy holding before entering Huawei Mall . Cialis was actually just an unknown new energy vehicle company. Due to its limited brand awareness, it only sold more than 700 vehicles in 2020. There is no doubt that Cialis quickly became popular with the halo of Huawei . In the past, Dongfeng Xiaokang mainly produced low-end vans, and with problems such as technology, quality and consumption upgrades, it has gradually been forgotten by the market. The brand is not only weak, but its product premium ability is not strong. The main sales model is basically a model below 50,000 yuan.
and stocks have suffered a storm, with high market value negative net profit
. With the industry leading in total market value ranking, Cialis' net profit is negative, ranking second to last in the same industry, and its net profit in each quarter has continued to be negative since 2021. Selis has surged in the short term in the stock market, and its market profits have risen sharply, and its price and value are seriously diverging. However, Liu Gesong increased his position regardless of his operating conditions when the stock price is above its value. Try to speculate in the manufacturing industry.
As of September 27, judging from the core data in other aspects, Cialis is far inferior to the industry average. In terms of stock selection logic, Liu Gesong betrayed the investment philosophy of starting from fundamentals, selecting targets with high growth and holding for a long time, and chose to take risks even further under the bet investment method: heavier position in a stock that relies on brand awareness rather than his own company strength.
. Industry allocation drifts, fund performance elasticity is poor
Judging from the performance curve of GF Industry's strict selection of three-year holding period mixed A, the product returns since the establishment of the fund have been negative in the vast time range, and the historical performance curve is also lagging behind in the vast time range compared with the market and similar funds. As of September 27 this year, the cumulative yield was -19.75%. While obtaining negative returns in the past, GF Industry's three-year holding period mixed A's maximum drawdown reached -43.23%, which is basically at the end of similar products in the market. In different market environments, the product showed poor performance elasticity, which is related to the drift of industry allocation by fund manager Liu Gesong: the early management of the same type of fund "GF Diversified Emerging Stocks" industry allocation manufacturing accounted for 68.56%, and the scientific research and technical services accounted for 21.16%. Now, the allocation of GF Industry's three-year holding period hybrid A manufacturing industry is as high as 93.55%, far exceeding the average of similar products by 51.19%.The industry allocation has drifted significantly, and there is almost no investment portfolio to speak of when operating in the same industry with high positions. In this environment, funds cannot hide the dilemma of high retracement and low elasticity.
. Asset allocation - long-term high position operation, which violates the fund positioning
In asset allocation, Liu Gesong's position allocation in stocks is relatively high, and most of the cases exceed the average level of similar types. Judging from the stock positions of GF Industry's strict selection of three-year holding period mixed A since its issuance in 2021, its holdings have been between 93% and 95% for a long time. This fund product is an equity-oriented mixed fund, and its investment scope is a fund invested in stocks. Its stock investment accounts for 60-95% of its net asset value, and there is a lot of room for operation in asset allocation. However, Liu Gesong's long-term high position operation violates the positioning of a mixed fund. It regards it as an stock fund to invest, and also violates the investment strategy of judging the operating trend of the financial market and the relative investment value of different asset classes at different stages of the economic cycle based on factors such as market liquidity and valuation level.
. The industry fluctuates downward, and individual stocks are declining at a faster pace
From the 2022 interim report holdings of GF Industry Strictly Selected Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A, the manufacturing sector is the main holdings, accounting for 93.55%, of which the heavy holding industries include photovoltaic equipment, automobiles, batteries, grid equipment, semiconductors, and chemical fiber industries; the proportions of each holding industry are 35.73%, 17.25%, 9.27%, 7.12, 6.62%, and 4.85% respectively.
From the perspective of heavy-weight industries, photovoltaic equipment, as the preferred field of Liu Gesong, has fallen by -10.61% since July 1, 2022. However, among the photovoltaic equipment stocks that were heavily held by the industry's three-year holding period Mixed A at the end of the second quarter, Jingao Technology and Longi Green Energy, which have fallen from July 1, 2022 to date, have fallen by -14.9% and -26.47% respectively. When the industry sector was down, the individual stocks invested by the fund were far inferior to the industry average.
On the other hand, as of September 27, 2022, the automobile industry, which is heavily in the manufacturing sector, has dropped by -16.81%, while the Serialis and Great Wall Motor, which are heavily in the three-year holdings of Mixed A, has seen an average decline of -21.09% and -20.65% since July 1, 2022. The above situation may confirm that Liu Gesong's ability to select stocks and inappropriate timing, and the failure to select stocks has led to a sharp decline in fund performance.
It is not difficult to find that in position management, Liu Gesong basically operates with high positions, concentrates his positions, and is basically concentrated in the photovoltaic industry. Such high-density centralized holdings require high stock selection capabilities. If stock selection is accurate, the fund can obtain excess returns; but if decision-making is made wrong, investors may bear risks. Obviously, Liu Gesong belongs to the latter at the moment. The aggressive betting style is astonishing. Once the bet is not suppressed, the long-term high negative returns are often accompanied by.
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