Recently, Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cut talks collapsed, but instead increased production. Coupled with the expectation of a decline in global total demand caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, crude oil prices plummeted. Under the leadership of some big Vs, investors have been buying the bottom-up and crude oil funds. In the morning, I heard that the comment area of the crude oil fund collectively exploded. When I opened a certain fund software, I found that investors were scolding fund companies and fund managers. There were about three points of complaint:
1. Follow the decline but not the rise. For example, on March 19, US crude oil rose by 22%, Brent crude oil rose by 13.44%, but on that day, Southern crude oil rose by 2.95%, Jiashen crude oil net value rose by 1.28%, and E Fund crude oil USD C rose by 2.33%. When it fell sharply, it fell together. Why did it not rise sharply after it rose sharply?
2. Stop sales/limits. I used to buy it casually at the high level, but now I find a reason not to buy it at the low level? The fixed investment plan has been completely destroyed and cannot reduce costs.
3. Suspecting something is a trick. Some investors believe that the fund company has modified the curve without authorization and not only charges the handling fees and management fees, but the fund manager also "stole" the profits.
In fact, migrant workers previously reminded in their article " Ten Questions and Answers to US Stocks: The logic of epic plunge, the impact on A-shares and the possible safe haven " on March 10: "Historically, there are not many oil prices in the range below 30 yuan. But now is not the time to buy the relevant targets, such as Huabao Oil and Gas etf. The off-market supply cannot be subscribed due to exhaustion of foreign exchange quotas, and the supply on the market is less than demand, resulting in a serious premium. When crude oil fell by 31% and only hit the limit for one day, it is estimated that it cannot be adjusted for one day. It is not recommended to intervene." This is not all the reasons. Below I will talk about these points that investors complain about one by one (of course, I will quote the views of many conscientious teachers in the industry. I will not make a lot of data charts. I try to make it clear in plain language).
1. There are two types of crude oil funds on the market. One is to buy crude oil ETFs and the other is to buy crude oil-related companies. They are all QDII fund (QDII fund simply means funds that can buy foreign stocks and other assets). The use of foreign exchange quotas must be restricted. For example, Huabao Oil and Gas and Huaan S&P Oil and Gas buy stocks of related companies, while Jiashen Crude Oil, Southern Crude Oil and E Fund Crude Oil all buy crude oil ETFs. Generally speaking, buying crude oil ETFs directly is smaller than buying crude oil-related companies, because one more layer of conduction process will have one more layer of loss. But do you think you really buy crude oil ETFs directly? Nor, they are actually buying ETFs that track crude oil abroad, so the essence of this fund is a fund in the fund (FOF), and investing in public funds that track crude oil prices worldwide. In fact, what you buy is neither the traditional FOF nor the traditional QDII, but FOF-QDII. Judging from the complexity of this product, it is quite scary. I wonder why so many people dare to buy a product that has no clear operation process?
2. Due to the complexity of the product structure, the reasons for the fluctuation of the net value of crude oil funds are very complicated. Simply put, the net value of crude oil funds has been affected by several factors: the net value of invested products is delayed, the significant changes in the exchange rate of and , and a large number of subscriptions/redemptions. The delay in net value display is the biggest factor, and QDII funds are basically like this. Although it is T+1 on the surface, it is actually T+2. For example, QDII funds investing in US stocks are T-closed in the US, but the subscription must be applied before the closing of A-shares the day before, which is equivalent to T+2. Crude oil funds are more complicated. International futures trade for 23 hours a day, but the fund opens only a few hours a day, and the time difference factor is superimposed, so the prices of each crude oil fund only reflect the changes in oil prices during the local opening time, which is only a small part of the changes in oil prices throughout the day. You are still buying a global package of funds, and the closing time in different places is inconsistent, so if you do short-term trading, you have to make predictions two days in advance. This difficulty is too great for ordinary investors. Exchange rate is also the reason, but not the main factor. The recent RMB exchange rate has indeed fluctuated significantly, which will make the calculation of net value more complicated. A large amount of subscription/redemption will dilute the returns and the money will be paid, but the fund manager has not had time to apply for it yet. Even if it is a day short, it will cause a large tracking error under the sharp market fluctuations.
3. It would be funny to say that fund managers steal returns.I remember a former colleague asked me some time ago that when many financial companies have an accident, will the fund companies also break up and run away and take away my money? Migrant workers can tell you responsibly, but they will never. First of all, the threshold for establishing public funds is very high, with only more than 100 companies nationwide, and the licenses are very limited; secondly, the funds of public funds are deposited by third parties in banks, and the money will not be passed through the fund company, so you will find that when applying for funds, there is a fee called custody fee, which is the fee for custody of funds to banks; finally, the fund company has a strict compliance process, which is strictly regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Whether it is investment in funds, risk control, or the entire investment process, there are special departments and persons in charge responsible for monitoring.
4. Why do you have to charge management fees if you make a profit or not? This can only be blamed on the investors themselves. Like the delayed calculation of net value mentioned above, these contents are written in the fund contract in black and white. How many investors have read fund recruitment letters and fund contracts before purchasing funds? Since you choose to purchase a public fund, it means you fully agree with the fund contract and have no objection to the fees in the contract. But retail investors always talk about this, and fund companies are helpless. They do charge management fees when they lose money, but they don’t share the profits. If you make money beyond your cognitive range, you will have to pay it back sooner or later; similarly, if you don’t understand a product at all, don’t speculate with a lucky mentality.
5. If you have already bought a crude oil fund, don’t panic. There are two reasons: First, due to purchase restrictions, the investors who later entered the market actually suffered little losses. Many people only bought 2,000 yuan or 4,000 yuan a day. The purchase restrictions are actually protecting investors; Second, crude oil has risen in the long run, so don’t pay too much attention to the daily net value changes. You should lengthen the curve to see the changes in weekly and monthly levels. Basically, the tracking error is not that exaggerated. However, the limit is indeed quite disgusting. You still need to find good and old active management funds to invest in fixed investments. Whether you are using index funds or crude oil funds, you are essentially volatile returns, rather than holding them for a long time. The only suitable for long-term fixed investments is basically active equity funds. Many small-scale mixed funds will also encounter this problem when they transform. Previously, a mini fund's net value continued to decline and was almost liquidated. However, the fund quickly transformed into a bond fund, which attracted institutions to save the market and successfully saved the scale. However, the people who invested in the fixed investment before were stunned. The transformation of the fund means that the fixed investment strategy has failed and has become a low-volatility bond fund.
6. In addition, we need to talk about another group of investors, who are friends who buy crude oil funds on the market. The net value you see off the market is the real net value, and what is on the market is just the transaction price. Because the off-market quota is used up, many people go to the market to grab share, and they are buried. For example, one day, the net value on the market was 0.7, while the off-market price was as high as 0.77, with a premium of 10%. Do you still want to buy it? Moreover, everyone's expectations for premiums are very chaotic. Huabao Oil and Gas once had a premium of 40%, but a bunch of investors still flocked to it. Migrant workers have to sigh that they cannot cut all the leeks and grow again when the spring breeze blows. Looking back on the past few years, people who bought financial products because of laziness have escaped the stock market crash, the Internet finance explosion, and the blockchain ebb. Those with some knowledge and idealism have been ruthlessly harvested by the market.
Finally, I would like to quote the words of Teacher Xiao Zhigang, who is popular among the majority of investors, as the ending: (The reason for the plunge is often the reason) is that the market structure is too complicated. People buy financial management, financial management, and FoF, and FoF buy etf. In the end, the people are too far away from their final assets, and they are in chaos, and in the end they can only cut the mess quickly. In the past, it was only relied on the herd effect. One stock plummeted, and other investors began to panic and ran away one after another. Now, through ETFs, indexes, and derivatives, everyone is in a chain of iron chains, and the result is a fire. So I don’t like the opportunities brought about by the trading structure . Like the blue-chip stocks in the past two years, it is also because of the complexity of the investor structure and the complexity of the trading structure.
(This article was originally published in my Wukong Q&A, not used as a basis for investment)
