The tool industry was in high prosperity in the first quarter of 2021
——China Tools Industry Prosperity Index (CHPI) Bulletin of 2021
In order to adapt to the new development pattern of " dual circulation " and better respond to the impact of technology and e-commerce on the traditional production and sales model, China Hardware Products Association specially commissioned its subordinate "Digital Promotion Committee" and "Cloud Symbiosis" platform to jointly initiate the "China Tools Industry Prosperity Index (CHPI)" research project, aiming to accurately reflect the macroeconomic operation of the tool industry and the production and operation status of enterprises, predict the industry's development trends, and provide authoritative reference and suggestions for industries and enterprises.
The first phase of the China Tools Industry Prosperity Index (CHPI) was launched in May 2021. For enterprises participating in this period of survey, manufacturers (mainly OEMs) account for 56.7%, manufacturers (mainly independent brands) account for 36.7%, and dealers/agents account for 6.7%; in 2020, enterprises with operating income of less than 20 million yuan accounted for 13.3%, enterprises with 20 million to 100 million yuan accounted for 23.3%, enterprises with 10 million to 500 million yuan accounted for 53.3%, enterprises with 500 million to 1 billion yuan accounted for 6.7%, and enterprises with 100 million to 3 billion yuan accounted for 3.3%.
has a high prosperity, and confidence is in the "green light zone"
Enterprise prosperity index survey shows that in the first quarter of 2021, the enterprise prosperity index of the tool industry was 125.83, which is in the "yellow light zone" that is operating well in the prosperity; the entrepreneur confidence index survey shows that entrepreneurs' expectations for the second quarter of 2021 declined compared with the prosperity in the first quarter, with the confidence index of 118.89, a decrease of 6.94 percentage points compared with the prosperity index in the first quarter, but is still in the normal "green light zone".
From the perspective of the composition indicators of the prosperity index, the labor demand indicator is in the "red light zone", and the demand for labor in enterprises this quarter has increased significantly compared with the previous quarter; eight indicators, including macroeconomic situation, overall industry operating status, enterprise overall operating status, order volume (demand), production capacity (equipment) utilization rate, product production volume, product sales volume, product sales volume, product sales price, etc. are in the "yellow light zone"; the product inventory indicator is in the "green light zone"; the enterprise profit status indicator is in the "light blue light zone" with a lower prosperity index; the raw material purchase price index is only 10.00, which is in the "deep blue light zone". Overall, tool manufacturers have good overall operating conditions in the first quarter of this year, but the price increase in upstream raw materials has a profound impact on the production, operation and profitability of the companies.
From the perspective of the confidence index composition indicators, entrepreneurs are confident in nine indicators, including the macroeconomic situation, the overall operating status of the industry, the overall operating status of the enterprise, the order volume (demand), production capacity (equipment) utilization rate, product production volume, product sales volume, product sales price, and labor demand. The index is in the "yellow light area"; the product inventory indicator is in the "green light area"; entrepreneurs are still confident in the corporate profitability status in the next quarter, and the index is in the "light blue light area"; for the purchase price of raw materials, most entrepreneurs believe that the price will continue to rise, and the index will continue to be in the "deep blue light area".
Enterprise revenue has increased, foreign trade has recovered significantly
In the first quarter survey, the operating conditions of enterprises generally showed a high trend, and the proportion of operating income reached 86.7% compared with the same period last year. This is mainly because the production and operation of the entire industry were at a low level in the first quarter of 2020. Among them, companies with revenue growth of more than 20% accounted for 30.0%, companies with revenue growth of 10%-20% accounted for 20.0%, and companies with revenue growth of 0%-10% accounted for 36.7%. In addition, there are 3.3% of companies with revenue declines of more than 20%.
In terms of foreign trade, the export volume of tool hardware affected by the new crown epidemic in 2020 began to bear pressure since February, and exports gradually recovered after the epidemic stabilized. According to data from China Customs, the tool hardware industry achieved exports of US$5.726 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 60.4%. Among them, the export volume of small power tools was US$1.494 billion, a year-on-year increase of 67.98%; the export volume of measuring instruments was US$833 million, a year-on-year increase of 50.7%; the parts (small power tools) was US$414 million, a year-on-year increase of 100.84%.
In the first quarter survey, entrepreneurs reported that the problems faced by production and operation were mainly rising raw material prices and labor shortage. 73.7% of enterprises proposed "abnormal increase in raw material costs", and 26.3% of enterprises proposed "difficulty in recruiting workers". In addition, 10.5% of companies proposed "container tension" and "industry price war". China has a large number of tool manufacturing companies, generally small scale, and generally low brand value. When facing the continuous rise in manufacturing costs and labor costs and tightening industry competition, the ability to resist risks is obviously lacking.
The economy is running well, residents' income and consumption resume growth, new home investment and sales are both prosperous
In the first quarter, the economy continued to recover steadily and started well.
GDP is 24931 billion yuan, accounting for comparable prices, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year; an increase of 10.3% over the first quarter of 2019, and an average increase of 5.0% in two years.
The total retail sales of consumer goods in social 10522.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%, and an average increase of 4.2% in two years; the national online retail sales of physical goods in physical goods was 2306.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, and an average increase of 15.4% in two years, accounting for 21.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
National residents Per capita disposable income 9,730 yuan, with an actual year-on-year increase of 13.7% after deducting price factors, and an average increase of 4.5% in two years. Among them, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in was 513,120 yuan, an actual increase of 12.3% year-on-year; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 5,398 yuan, an actual increase of 16.3% year-on-year.
The per capita consumption expenditure of residents nationwide is 5,978 yuan, a nominal increase of 17.6%. After deducting price factors, the actual increase is 17.6%. Compared with the first quarter of 2019, the average nominal growth in the two years was 3.9%, and the real growth was 1.4%. From the perspective of growth trend, residents' consumption in the first quarter has reversed the decline for four consecutive quarters since the same period last year, showing a recovery growth trend.
National real estate development investment is 2757.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, an increase of 15.9% over the first quarter of 2019, and an average increase of 7.6% in two years. Among them, residential investment was 2062.4 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8%. The sales area of commercial housing was 360.07 million square meters, an increase of 63.8% year-on-year, an increase of 20.7% over the first quarter of 2019, and an average increase of 9.9% in the two years. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings increased by 68.1%, the sales area of office buildings increased by 34.4%, and the sales area of commercial business premises increased by 24.9%. From a regional perspective, the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern region was 153.47 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 74.3%, the sales area in the central region was 96.39 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 68.9%, and the sales area in the western region was 100.39 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%. In terms of second-hand housing, a report from Beike Research Institute shows that the actual transaction volume of Lianjia second-hand housing in 18 key cities in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 14% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, about 2.6 times that of the same period last year (the base of 2020 was lower due to the impact of the epidemic), and the highest single-quarter transaction point since 2017. By city, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai fell slightly month-on-month in the first quarter, and the transaction volume in Beijing increased by 20% month-on-month, while the core second-tier cities were highly popular. For example, the transaction volume in Hefei increased by about 60% month-on-month in the first quarter, the increase of Chengdu and Wuhan was about 30% month-on-month, and Xi'an increased by 10% month-on-month. For the future market, taking into account the recent intensive regulatory policies of the central and local governments, strict investigation of business loans, and continuous rise in bank interest rates, it is expected that the market will pull back in the second quarter, and may see a turning point.
In the first three months of 2021, PPI ( industrial producer price index ) rose by 0.3%, 1.7% and 4.4% year-on-year respectively. On average from January to March, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers rose by 2.1% compared with the same period last year, and the purchase prices of industrial producers rose by 2.8%. Among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the price of means of production rose by 2.8%, and the price of means of living fell by 0.1%. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of ferrous metal materials rose by 12.0%, the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires rose by 11.9%, the prices of chemical raw materials rose by 2.0%, and the prices of fuel power fell by 1.1%. Judging from the ex-factory prices of major industries, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry rose by 28.8% year-on-year, while the non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry rose by 10.9% year-on-year.
Looking to the long term, the brand suggests that it will take a long time to go
The rising price of raw materials has brought about an unexpected surge in costs. The chain effect has been revealed in many sub-industry, and the industry based on copper, aluminum, steel, etc. has been deeply affected. Looking to the long run, foreign trade barriers are in a tendency to strengthen, and coupled with the rising labor costs in China, the global manufacturing industry is gradually shifting to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, , Laos, , etc., which will pose a major threat to my country's export industry, including hardware and tools. Moreover, focusing on OEM business will inevitably lead to low profit margins and difficulty in opening up one's own sales channels. Creating a Chinese brand with international influence is an inevitable measure to enhance my country's industrial competitiveness and comprehensive national strength.
Special thanks:
Beijing Weijia Changxin Tools Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Lin'an Sun Tools Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Lin'an Pliers Co., Ltd., Hebei Zhongbo Explosion-proof Tools Group Co., Ltd., Hebei Zhongbo Explosion-proof Tools Group Co., Ltd., Jiande Yuanfeng Tools Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Hongbao Tools Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Jinlu Group Co., Ltd., Laizhou Hongyuan Pliers Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Ningbo Daye Garden Industry Co., Ltd., Ningbo Jufeng Tools Industrial Co., Ltd., Ningbo Meiqi Tools Tools Co., Ltd., Ningbo Meiqi Tools Co., Ltd., Ningbo Jiejie Tool Co., Ltd., Ningbo Xinda Measuring Tool Co., Ltd., Ningbo Great Wall Precision Industrial Co., Ltd., Quangong Tool Co., Ltd., Shandong Black Tornado Saw Co., Ltd., Shanghai Ganchun Business Co., Ltd., Shanghai Guo Electromechanical Equipment Co., Ltd., Weihai Liyu Industrial Co., Ltd., Wendeng Weili Tool Group, Shandong Jinfu Tool Co., Ltd., Xuzhou Jinhu Tool Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Zhangjiagang Zhongtianda Tool Co., Ltd., Zhaoyuan Hongrun Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Baoweier Technology Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Deshuo Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Jinhua Hanzhi Tool Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Tuojin Hardware Tool Co., Ltd.
