Polyester yarn, sewing thread, rayon embroidery thread and other products produced by Delong Textile are exported to Europe, America and Southeast Asia. The picture shows workers working overtime to make polyester yarn exported on April 12. Photo by Zhuo Zhongwei (People's Vision)
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Recently, many international institutions have published their mid-year economic outlook. While lowering their expectations for the global economic outlook, they believe that China will drive the economic recovery of the Asia-Pacific region and become the main driving force for world economic growth. Experts interviewed by our reporter said that the consumption and production market in the Asia-Pacific region have broad prospects and the rapid development of the digital economy will make greater contributions to global economic growth.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently released its latest forecast saying that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the bank lowered its economic growth expectations for developing economies in Asia-Pacific in 2020 to 0.1%. East Asia's growth rate in 2020 was 1.3%, making it the only sub-region to grow. The World Bank previously released the Global Economic Outlook report shows that China's East Asia and the Pacific region will be the only positive growth region in the world this year, with an expected growth of 0.5% and expected to reach 6.6% next year.
ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada said in the report that economies in the Asia-Pacific region have gradually been unblocked, and some economic activities have been restarted under the "new normal". Governments should take measures to avoid a new round of epidemics.
HSBC Global Asset Management expects that the global economy, which is gradually emerging from the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, will experience a "hook-shaped recovery", and China and other Asian industrialized countries are expected to become the best performing economies. ArgentinaThe Horn published an article saying that during the post-epidemic period in 2021, the global economy will mainly manifest itself in Asia's prosperity.
consumer market is showing an improvement trend
night falls and lights are on. Some night markets in Bangkok, Thailand are gradually unblocking, waiting for tourists to arrive. Su Tara, a staff member of the marketing department of the Riverside Wharf Night Market, told our reporter that under normal circumstances, the night market could have reached 40,000 tourists per night, and young people were the main consumer group. "Young people love to consume and dare to consume. Young Thais and foreign tourists have always been the main consumer force in the night market."
ASEAN is one of the youngest population age structure in the world, with an average age of less than 29 years old. Tidinan Ponsutila, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, said that the huge number of young people gives ASEAN huge consumption potential. In recent years, with the strong economic growth and the accelerated urbanization process in the Asia-Pacific region, the middle class group in the region has continued to expand, driving the vigorous development of the retail market in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2019, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.116 billion yuan, and many parties predicted that China will soon become the world's largest consumer market. According to statistics, about 60 million middle-class families in ASEAN currently have the ability to distribute income, and this figure is expected to reach 125 million in 2025.
As the epidemic prevention and control situation stabilizes, the consumer market in the Asia-Pacific region is showing an improvement trend. The National Bureau of Statistics of China recently stated that the scale of retail sales in China is close to the same month last year. The Economic and Business Research Center of the University of Thailand Chamber of Commerce recently released a report saying that Thailand's consumer confidence index in May increased comprehensively compared with April, and the Thai economy is sending a signal of positive recovery. Senior economic consultant of the Asian Development Bank Zhuang Juzhong pointed out that strong domestic demand has always been the advantage of economic development in Asia-Pacific countries, and the importance of the domestic market has become more prominent during the epidemic prevention and control period.
Supply Chain Industry Chain Stable and Complete
Garment Processing Industry is one of the pillar industries of Cambodia and is also its largest export industry. More than 60% of the surface accessories in this industry are imported from China. In early March, due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, many garment factories in Cambodia faced severe shortage of raw materials. China, which was the first to resume work and production, has given Cambodian manufacturers hope. More than a dozen cargo ships loaded with clothing raw materials were sailing to Cambodia one after another. "Raw materials arrived in Cambodia in a timely and quickly, solving the urgent need for Cambodia's factories." Xie Moniler, director of the Project Planning Department of the Alliance Forum of Cambodia Civil Society Organizations, told our reporter that the stability of China's supply chain is very important to Southeast Asian countries, and the industrial dependence between the two sides has continued to increase in recent years.
In recent years, with the increasingly tight production and trade network, the Asia-Pacific value chain has become one of the most critical chains in the global trade cycle and the most important driving force for global growth. "The stability of China's supply chain and the integrity of the industrial chain have played an important driving and radiating role in regional economic development. Asia is increasingly becoming the region with the most dynamic and potential development of the global economy." Philippines Editor-in-chief of "Asian Business Weekly" pointed out.
There are great differences in the economic development level and stage of Asia-Pacific countries, which can form complementary advantages and achieve differentiated competition through further market docking, thereby building a more complete and close value chain trading method. In view of this, countries in the Asia-Pacific generally hope to promote the conclusion of regional free trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as soon as possible, accelerate the creation of a unified Asia-Pacific market, and promote the process of regional economic integration.
The development of the digital economy has accelerated
Commuting in the morning with a taxi software, place an order on an e-commerce platform at noon, watch short videos during breaks, and order dinner with takeaway software... This is a day for a Southeast Asian mobile Internet user in the "2019 Southeast Asian Digital Economy Report" jointly released by Google , Temasek and Bain. The report said that Southeast Asia has 360 million Internet users, making it one of the most active markets in the world with mobile Internet. In 2019, the digital economy in Southeast Asia reached US$100 billion, and is expected to grow to US$300 billion in 2025.
During the epidemic prevention and control period, the economies of Asia-Pacific countries were significantly impacted. New opportunities are created in the crisis, the digital economy is rising against the trend, ushering in a new stage of development. Many industries such as e-commerce, remote office, and telemedicine are accelerating their development. Southeast Asian e-commerce giant Lai Zanda recently said its online grocery sales in Singapore have increased 4 times since early April. The telemedicine mobile application "Pulse" can provide users with 24/7 health care consulting services and health information. It has been launched in 9 Asian countries and regions, with a cumulative download volume of more than 4.8 million times. Bain and Facebook's research believes that the online shopping habits that people in Southeast Asia have gradually developed during the epidemic prevention and control period will continue after the epidemic.
5G, artificial intelligence, big data and other new generation digital technologies will support the vigorous development of the digital economy. In recent years, Southeast Asia's 5G services have developed rapidly, and many countries hope to promote economic growth. Thailand Yiwang Information Service Company officially provided 5G services in March. The Singapore government announced at the end of April that it would issue licenses to Singapore telecom companies and others to promote the construction of a nationwide 5G network. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Southeast Asia is expected to become a rapidly growing market for 5G services. The report of the US International Data Group predicts that at a CAGR of 50%, spending on artificial intelligence systems in the Asia-Pacific region will surge to $15 billion in 2022.
McKinsey Global Research Institute believes that after experiencing the labor-intensive industrialization stage, Asian countries such as China have begun to turn to the high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service stages, which is expected to maintain the average annual GDP growth rate in the region in the next 10 to 15 years. Tang Longgong Wu Sentilangu, deputy director of the Thai-China "Belt and Road" Cooperation Research Center, the National Institute of Thailand, believes that digitalization has become a new driving force for global economic recovery and development. The rapid development of digital economy in the Asia-Pacific region will promote the Asia-Pacific region to make greater contributions to global economic growth.
(This newspaper Bangkok )
"People's Daily" (June 24, 2020, 17th edition)
