Qianjiang Evening News·Hourly News Reporter Wang Yanping
The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is still continuing. After the opening of today, the index hit a new high since May 2002, reaching a high of 114.69, and the largest increase in the past week reached 4.64%.
USD strengthening has led to the continued depreciation of global non-dollar currencies. Today, the US dollar against offshore RMB reached a maximum of 7.1738, up 397 points in a single day, and rose by as much as 1,686 points in the past week, an increase of 2.41%, which is very likely to accelerate the top.
Missed the best exchange time at the beginning of the year
exchange for US$100,000 to spend 86,000 yuan more
accelerates the rise, and the most anxious one is undoubtedly the families of international students.
Zhang Hao's daughter went to study in the United States in August this year. Since the end of last year, his friends have been urging him to exchange the US dollar as soon as possible, but because of busy work, Zhang Hao kept it in mind, but he never took action. As a result, after the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar ushered in a rapid rise in April and May this year. It was not until June that Zhang Hao saw that the US dollar had no hope of a pullback in a short period of time, so he exchanged $50,000 at around 675.
"The idea at that time was to wait until the exchange rate fell and then exchange it for tens of thousands of dollars." Zhang Hao said that he did not expect that after about three months of sideways, the US dollar has risen rapidly recently. To this day, the price of bank exchanges has risen to more than 7.17.
Zhang Hao's friends started to exchange foreign exchanges one after another since the end of last year. By February this year, the couple had used up their exchange amount of US$100,000, which was less than 6.32 at lows, and around 6.38 at highs, and an average of less than 6.35 at highs. "The most successful investment this year is to exchange for some US dollars." Zhang Hao's friend said proudly.
If compared with the low point at the beginning of the year, it would also be exchanged for US$100,000, and now it would cost about 86,000 yuan more, which is equivalent to the annual income of ordinary working people.
Central Bank continues to take action to "maintain stability"
raises forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio
Against the backdrop of the continued soaring US dollar, today, the central bank website announced that in order to stabilize foreign exchange market expectations and strengthen macro-prudential management of , it was decided to increase the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20% from September 28, 2022. This is another signal that the central bank has stabilized the exchange rate after lowering the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio on September 5. It is also the central bank's adjustment of the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio after nearly two years.
Forward foreign exchange sales business is an exchange rate hedging derivative product provided by banks to enterprises. Through forward foreign exchange purchases, enterprises can avoid future exchange rate risks to a certain extent. Generally speaking, raising the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio is related to expectations of RMB depreciation.
This time, the central bank raised the reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business, which means that financial institutions are required to deposit foreign exchange risk reserves at 20% of their forward foreign exchange sales contract amount, which is equivalent to allowing banks to set aside risk preparations to deal with possible future losses, and to curb corporate forward foreign exchange sales through price transmission.
Xu Min, professor of finance at Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, said that given that there is currently an interest rate spread between RMB and US dollar deposits, and the interest rate spread is expanding, many companies have the urge to arbitrage. This increase in the risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales means that the cost of arbitrage increases. If the company feels that the cost is too high, its willingness to buy foreign exchange in the spot will weaken.
"If demand drops, the upward momentum of the US dollar will be curbed, at least not so fast," Xu Min explained.
pound pound is close to the 1:1 mark against the US dollar
Most RMB appreciate against non-US dollar currencies
. Experts have analyzed that in the short term, the Fed continues to significantly increase rate hikes in , and it is expected that there will be two interest rate hikes this year. The US dollar will still run strong for a period of time, which means that the RMB still has a passive depreciation momentum against the US dollar. It is not ruled out that the possibility of breaking through the 2020 high of 7.1967 is next.
Xu Min believes that the recent rapid rise of the US dollar against the RMB is not only related to the Fed's interest rate hike, but also related to the recent decline in the RMB interest rate. As for the next trend of the US dollar, it is related to factors such as the extent of the US dollar's subsequent interest rate hike and the basic support of my country's economy to the RMB.
In November and December this year, the Federal Reserve has two interest rate meetings. If the inflation data in the United States declined significantly in September and October, the unemployment rate rose significantly, and the growth rate of GDP decreased significantly, the rate hike rate is likely to slow down and the US dollar's rise will also fall; on the contrary, the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates sharply, and the strong performance of the US dollar will continue for a period of time.
The performance of the RMB also depends on the performance of my country's economy. If the economic fundamentals are stable, it will provide strong support for the RMB.
In addition, by the end of the year, with the peak period of demand for overseas investment enterprises in or foreign trade enterprises to settle foreign exchange, they need to sell US dollars to exchange for RMB, and the US dollar will increase when lending, and the US dollar will also fall accordingly.
"In fact, in addition to lowering the foreign exchange reserve ratio and raising the forward foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, the central bank has many policy tools to stabilize the exchange rate, including countercyclical factors and other means used before." Xu Min said.
In fact, as the US dollar index continues to strengthen, non-US dollar currencies, including the RMB, have depreciated to varying degrees. However, compared with currencies in major developed economies such as the pound, the euro, and the Japanese yen, the RMB depreciation is relatively small, and the RMB exchange rate index is generally stable.
Since the beginning of this year, the offshore RMB depreciation against the US dollar has reached 12.6%, while the euro has depreciated against the US dollar by more than 15%. This morning, the euro has fallen below 0.96 against the US dollar, with a minimum of 0.9556:1; the Japanese yen depreciated against the US dollar by more than 25%; the British pound depreciated against the US dollar by more than 22%, setting a record low, and today it fell to 1.0366:1, getting closer and closer to the 1:1 mark. In other words, in addition to depreciating against the US dollar, the RMB mostly appreciates against non-US dollar currencies.
At the regular policy brief of the State Council on September 5, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of People's Bank of China, said: "The long-term trend of the RMB should be clear. In the future, the recognition of the RMB will continue to increase. Two-way fluctuations in the short term are a normal state, and there will be no ' unilateral market '."
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