The ChiNext Index has only been a flash in the pan and the market has poured down.
A shares historical laws come true again. With the last rod of weight rotation handed to bank stocks, the market has entered a large-scale adjustment.
11 On November 23, although the weighted stocks of GEM such as Storm Group were swarmed and snatched, the GEM index's surge was only a flash in the pan, and instead was a profit-taking position. It was covered by the index to distribute at a high level, and the market poured down. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3241.14 points, down 0.22%. The ChiNext Index was 2165.71 points, down 0.55%.
Banking and real estate sectors led the gains, while coal, nonferrous metals, securities and insurance led the declines. Hot topics are messy, some high bonus and transfer concept stocks and equity transfers performed but the sectors were severely differentiated, with the Belt and Road Initiative, rare earths and graphene leading the decline. On that day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a total turnover of 679.911 billion yuan, a increase of 16.131 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
Market analysts believe that a very strange phenomenon in the market recently is that both the main board and the GEM are basically weight-activated. After they initiated, they played the role of rising indexes but not rising stocks. The differentiation of individual stocks on the market is very serious. This is the seesaw effect caused by the failure of volume to keep up. Large-cap stocks are too strong, and it is not good if large-cap stocks are pulled too hard. The only hot topic on the market is that the second-highest bonus and transfer will also have a big difference after the increase, which is a normal break.
Compared with the market in the previous few months, A-shares have experienced at least the following five major changes. 1. Bank stocks are starting to move; 2. Insurance funds raise their shares and target large-cap stocks again; 3. Vanke has stopped, and Evergrande’s increase in holdings has not stimulated its stock price to rise, which is rare this year; 4. Global stock markets continue to be bullish, and many uncertainties in the peripheral market have been temporarily eliminated; 5. Institutions represented by securities companies have significantly turned long in recent times.
Shenwan Hongyuan Recently, in the research report of "2017 A-share Investment Strategy Summary: Age of Discovery", the improvement of the denominator factor in 2017 is more certain, and three types of incremental funds, including residents' "house buying money", foreign capital, and bank insurance funds, may resonate, which is beneficial to the broad equity market, including A-shares. The research report pointed out that Shenwan Hongyuan's strategy boldly proposed in June 2016 that the bear market would end before June 2017, and this judgment will still be maintained.
Another major brokerage CITIC Securities Research Department Macroeconomic Research Group predicts that China's GDP will grow by 6.5% in 2017, and consumer goods retail and fixed asset investment will grow by 9.8% and 7.4% respectively; while CPI will decline slightly, with CPI 1.7% in 2017, and PPI will continue to rebound, and is expected to rise by 1.6% in 2017. Regarding the RMB exchange rate, CITIC Securities expects that the RMB will fall to the 7.3 line against the US dollar in 2017.
Regarding capital market investment strategies, CITIC Securities believes that A-shares will benefit as a whole from the new real estate policy. The funds squeezed out from the real estate market due to the new real estate policy will lead to a large-scale migration of bubbles. In this process, A-shares will benefit as a whole and are generally optimistic about the A-share market in 2017. In terms of general trend analysis, CITIC Securities predicts that from structure to trend, A-shares may perform well in the second quarter of next year, and risk factors will dominate the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Regarding the strategic allocation of A-shares in 2017, CITIC Securities believes that the market conditions in growth stocks can be participated at a time next year, among which the four major sectors of VR (virtual reality, hardware + content), Internet of Things, new energy vehicles, and precision medicine are worth paying close attention. In terms of tactics, investing in the A-share market in 2017 should pay more attention to policy coordination, arrange and combine different policies, and find the most suitable allocation direction for the current policy, macro and market environment. For example, under the background of "three cuts + loose currency tight credit", the cyclical market has not yet expired and has entered the "fighting of the gopher" market. It is recommended to focus on industries focused on the decapacity policy (cement, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum and shipbuilding), and at the same time, the reporting repair market of steel, nonferrous metals and coal can be laid out. In the environment of "loose currency + anti-bubble", hidden inflation in real estate is becoming explicit, focusing on the medical service industry catalyzed by the upgrading of education consumption and the reform of doctor groups. In addition, under the combination of "tight credit + anti-foam", China's shadow banking system may rise again in 2017, and AMC (asset management company) related topics are also worth paying attention to.
In addition, CICC summarized its outlook for next year's A-shares in four words: a turnaround.CICC pointed out that the structural opportunities of A-shares in 2017 will be better than in 2016, and are expected to achieve single-digit returns throughout the year.
market insiders suggest that such a market is basically meaningless when looking at the index. It is just that as the weights such as big finance and real estate have risen in turn, and the blue chips in the Chinese character have gradually weakened in recent days, the market may also adjust at any time. The strength of the ChiNext will determine the strength of the structural market, because the Shanghai Stock Exchange cannot stimulate the money-making effect of individual stocks. In the short term, it is time to focus on defense again. It is more difficult to operate individual stocks. It is better to operate cautiously. Small positions follow the hot spots on the market and make small fuss.
Morgan Stanley Investment believes that in the short term, the next hot spot for leading the market after the weight sector rotates is still unclear, and it is still difficult for the ChiNext to continue to challenge the 2200-point first-line platform after filling the previous gap on the 23rd. In the short term, there may be a period of hot spot vacuum period, and the operability of the market is expected to decrease. On the 23rd, the dived in at the end of the trading session of and did not increase the volume. It is expected that the short-term index will maintain a volatile consolidation trend.
November 24 You can also follow the following news:
Central Rural Work Conference will be held in December, and the meeting will deploy the 2017 rural work. In addition, The Ministry of Agriculture will hold a national agricultural reclamation work conference in Beijing from December 5 to 7, summarize and exchange local implementation opinions and progress in the special pilot and comprehensive demonstration of deepening agricultural reclamation reform, and study and deploy key tasks for agricultural reclamation reform and development in 2017. Document No. 1 is expected to be released in late January 2017. You can pay attention to Beidahuang (600598), Hainan Rubber (601118), etc.
With the continuous advancement of power system reform, allocation integration will be a key point in the construction of power systems in the future. The dividends of electricity reform are expected to break the monopoly of the existing power grid on the distribution network side, incremental distribution network assets will be liberalized to social capital, and subsequent distribution network projects are expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace. You can pay attention to Jinzhi Technology (002090), Zhixin Electric (600517), Oriental Energy (000958), etc.
htmlOn the 523rd, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction and Application of the Spatial Information Corridor of the Belt and Road" , proposing that after about 10 years of efforts, the "Belt and Road" spatial information corridor will be basically built with Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, and other regions focusing on Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, Central Asia, North Africa and other regions, and radiating to Oceania, Central and Eastern Europe, , Africa and other regions, and has complete facilities and efficient services. You can pay attention to Obit (300053), Xinwei Group (600485), etc.
24, two new shares were subscribed to : Taichenguang, subscription code 300570, issue price 20.59 yuan; Sanwei Co., Ltd., subscription code 732033, issue price 17.55 yuan.
In terms of international market, the US economic data is strong and the US dollar exchange rate rises sharply. Onshore RMB fell below the 6.91 mark against the US dollar, setting a new record low again; offshore RMB fell below the 6.95 mark against the US dollar, setting a new record low.
Fed's November meeting minutes show that the motivation for members to roughly agree to the rate hike is still increasing ; most members believe that the relatively fast rate hike is appropriate; some members believe that the rate hike should be carried out in December to preserve the credibility of the Fed, and two members tend to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November. Almost all committee members believe that the risks facing the economic outlook in the near future are roughly balanced.
On November 23, local time in the United States, U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hitting record highs for the third consecutive trading day, and the decline in biotech stocks dragged down the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Index rose 0.31% to 19,083.18 points. Nasdaq index fell 0.11% to 5380.68 points. New York oil prices closed down 0.2%, while gold prices closed down.
US stocks are closed on Thanksgiving on Thursday, and US stocks will close early on Friday.
