overnight, spot gold recovered the lost ground the day before, hitting a high of $1719.26 in the day and hitting a low of $1691.26, and finally closed at $1718.28. In the early trading of today's Asian market, gold fell slightly and is currently hovering around $1,717.
Gold's rise this time was mainly due to the speech of the second in command of the Federal Reserve "The eagle is the pigeon", the US dollar surged and fell back to , and gold took advantage of the situation to explode.
However, overnight rumors say that Fed rate hike in September 75 basis points can basically be determined .
The most accurate prediction
Yesterday, an article published by the Wall Street Journal disturbed Wall Street , which alluded to the Fed's interest rate hike in September. It is exactly the same as the operation before the Fed's first sharp interest rate hike on June 16, and it was revealed to everyone in advance.
This article was written by Nick Timilaos, the newspaper's chief economic journalist, who wrote about the Federal Reserve, which people believe is instructed by the Federal Reserve.
And the time of this article was published was also very coincidental. I chose the day before Powell's speech. The signal was sent in advance seemed to be to let the market digest Powell's speech in advance. From the side, we can reason that Powell is about to deliver a hawkish speech.
Some analysts said that it is obvious that the Federal Reserve wants to reduce its impact on the market. Long before last week, the Fed also hoped that U.S. stocks would fall to tighten the financial environment. It now seems that the decline in US stocks has reached the level expected by the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve does not need US stocks to fall sharply.
Currently, CME’s Fed observation tool shows that the market expects the bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points suddenly to 82% at its September meeting, before that, the figure was 73%.
When gold rose, crude oil collapsed overnight.
crude oil plunged!
After the impact of OPEC+ symbolic production cuts was digested by the market, international oil prices returned to fatigue due to demand concerns.
Image source: Jintou.com
Last night, international oil prices fell sharply again. During the session of the US stock market, US oil fell nearly 6%, falling below US$85 per barrel for the first time since January this year. Brent oil fell below $90 per barrel for the first time since February. As of the close of this morning, international oil prices fell to eight-month lows. WTI October futures closed down 5.68% at $81.94 per barrel. Brent November futures closed down 5.20% at $88.00 per barrel.
At present, the market is paying attention to the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA oil storage data released on Thursday. If U.S. crude oil inventories fall for four consecutive weeks as expected, it may support oil prices. Analysts expect oil supply to continue to be tight in the fourth quarter of this year. The market is also worried about the risk of Russian oil cutting off supply to European , which will also support oil prices. But the new British Prime Minister Tras said he hopes to extract more oil and natural gas from North Sea .
In addition, investors need to pay attention to the development of the international situation.
These two countries suddenly turned against each other and broke off diplomatic relations
Suddenly, Iran and Albania broke off diplomatic relations. By the way, these two countries feel that they are inseparable from each other. They are not neighboring countries, they are far apart on the map, and there is no territorial dispute. It is not a big country with wide interests, and there is no many frictions in interest. Iran is still considered a harbinger of Middle East , but Albania has a total population of less than 3 million, which is really unsaid.
But international politics is so dramatic. This breakdown of diplomatic relations was initiated by Albania. As for the reason for the breakdown of diplomatic relations, Albania's explanation is: Iranian hackers attack. This may be the first incident in the world in which the two countries broke off diplomatic relations due to cyber attacks.
Rama also said that the Afghan side has "undisputed evidence" to prove that the cyber attack was carefully planned and funded by Iran. The hacker organization also launched attacks on Israel, Saudi , UAE, Jordan , Kuwait , Cyprus and other countries.
It is worth mentioning that Albania announced its severance of diplomatic relations with Iran, and the United States immediately expressed its support.
Seeing the Iranian government's statement, Iran was very angry and said that this was a conspiracy between the United States and the Jewish people in .
In addition, in terms of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the game between Russia and Ukraine is becoming increasingly fierce on Zaporo Thermal Nuclear Power Plant. Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Ukrainian army continued to provoke near the Zaporo thermonuclear power plant.
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on the 7th that it would expand sanctions on EU , and put the EU's highest military leader, senior officials of the security agencies of EU member states, and representatives of European arms and military equipment production in the field of European weapons and military equipment production that participated in the delivery of military products to Ukraine on the list of prohibited entry.
Jinto.com Gold Medal Analyst Trading Plan
4 hours level Here I made a short-term bottom divergence from , and the market then formed a 4-hour rebound. If the market wants to confirm the reversal, it must rebound over 1726, and then fall back to confirm the rebound upward. This process is still far away.
Image source: Jintou.com
is still in the 4-hour rebound process. From a large structure, it is still in the process of weekly decline preparations.
From the rhythm, the weekly level will fluctuate at a low level this week. Next week, the weekly level 5 moving average will continue to fluctuate slightly and confirm it. Then, next week, the Fed interest rate meeting will be held before and after .
Therefore, yesterday, he tested 1680 and then pulled up, which can be regarded as the market is preparing for the key support position of breaking down through 1680. In this week and next week, the market will mainly fluctuate slightly, which is a state of accumulation.
so we can see that the overall amplitude of the market will be relatively small in the future. If it is stronger, the daily line level can form a tangle again. If the rebound is high enough and the tangle is formed, it is still a very likely short-selling opportunity for us to be very good in the later stage.
Given the relatively small amplitude at present, it may be like this within the day. Those who are more stable can remain unchanged. If you want to do it, if the market falls rapidly around 1700-1704, there is still an opportunity to rebound 1710-12. You can lightly make a short long position and set a stop loss yourself. If the market continues to rebound upward along the 4-hour level 5 moving average, then you will still wait and see without operating.
