Analysis review:
Today General Administration of Customs released import and export data from August and January to August. Let’s talk about the import and export situation of steel-related industries and its impact on the steel market.
First of all, China's total steel exports decreased month-on-month and increased year-on-year in August. On the one hand, the month-on-month decline mainly reflects the current situation of high global inflation and declining manufacturing prosperity; on the other hand, the increase in exports year-on-year indicates that my country's economic development is strong and economic recovery expectations are strong, which has a certain positive impact on the steel market.
followed by . The export data of steel manufacturing products is generally improving, which is beneficial to the steel market. In August, my country's automobile and ship exports increased year-on-year. In addition to the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, this is mainly due to my country's precise and efficient epidemic prevention and control policies, and will also boost the demand for steel for the automobile manufacturing industry. The poor household appliance export data reflects the current pessimistic reality of current economic development expectations. The global consumer market is relatively sluggish, which is not conducive to the production and sales of home appliances. Considering that the steel used in the home appliance industry is not large, overall, the current demand for steel used in the manufacturing industry is promising in the future.
Then . In the first eight months, the volume and price of iron ore imports fell by both . The deterioration of the international environment and intensified inflation have led to unprecedented hikes in and hibernation of , which is negative for iron ore prices. At the same time, the domestic real estate market is weak and steel demand has contracted, suppressing the resumption of production by steel companies and curbing demand for raw materials. It may be difficult to have a significant rebound in the short term.
Overall, my country's export data is generally improving. With the advancement of economic stability policies, demand may be stable and improving, and the future market can still be expected.
Focus on:
01
8 in August, 308,000 cars were exported, an increase of 47.37% year-on-year
General Administration of Customs on September 7, 2022, China exported 308,000 cars in August 2022, a year-on-year increase of 47.37%. From January to August, China exported 1.905 million vehicles, an increase of 44.50% year-on-year.
Analyst's opinion: The automotive industry is currently developing well, both in domestic production and sales and export sales, which is good for raw material demand; at the same time, this also reflects the current steady and positive economic development trend, which is good for the steel market.
02
In August, the global manufacturing PMI continued to decline
According to China Federation of Logistics and Procurement , the global manufacturing PMI in August 2022 was 50.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month decline for three consecutive months, setting a new low since July 2020.
Analysts' views: Central banks in Europe and the United States generally raise interest rates, expectations of global economic recession intensify, manufacturing industry prosperity continues to decline, curbing demand for raw materials, and negative steel prices.
03
Steel-focus multi-point game, the risk of the second round of price reduction of coke still exists
Last Friday, the first round of price reduction of coke was completed, with an amplitude of 100-110 yuan/ton, and the coking plant once again fell into a low profit level, and the market pessimism spread. At present, the coke market continues to show a multi-point game, and coke prices may have a second round of downward trend.
Analysts' opinion: will be in the short term, and the expectation of the second round of reduction will increase, steel companies will decline, profits are expected to be restored, and willingness to resume production may increase, which is negative for steel prices.
Market price:
Today's steel price is stable and weak
Zhonggang.com APP data shows:
rebar 424 markets, 8 markets fell 10-30, 1 market rose 10, 2 The average price of 0mmHRB400E is 4083 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; among the
hot coil 24 markets, 5 markets fell 10-30, 5 markets rose 10-30, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils is 4021 yuan/ton, the same price as the previous trading day; among the
medium-thick plate 23 markets, no decline, 1 market rose 10, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium-roll plates is 4258 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, a total of 20 steel mills have adjusted prices today, of which:
has lowered 13 , accounting for 65%, with a price adjustment of 10-90 yuan/ton, with the largest decline being Yuxi Xianfu Line Snail;
has stabilized 7 , accounting for 35%.
According to the data of the China Steel Network APP,
1 futures steel closed down:
Today's thread main futures fell 19, closing at 3673, a drop of 0.51%; the main hot coil main rose 7, closing at 3761, a gain of 0.19%; the main coke main fell 44.5, closing at 2430.5, a drop of 1.80%; the main coke main force fell 38.0, closing at 1822.5, a drop of 2.04%; the main iron ore fell 12.0, closing at 680.0, a drop of 1.73%.
Futures Analysis
This week's hot rolling maintenance impact was 105,500 tons, a decrease of 127,700 tons month-on-month last week. The hot rolling output continued to rebound, and the output may recover to the same as the same period last year; the building materials end was affected by the restricted electrolysis, and the shipments of cement and concrete rebounded, but compared with mid-July, there was little highlight, and the focus was on production and inventory changes.
unilateral: rebound at high altitude far-moon thread hot coil, risk: demand rebounds beyond expectations, output declines beyond expectations, etc.
arbitrage: It is recommended to do far off when the dip, the monthly coil screws are poor, risk points: hot coil production exceeds expectations and electric furnace resumption is not as expected, etc.
(Source: Galaxy Futures, does not represent the views of China Steel Network, only for reference and not for investment advice)
Steel price forecast
Steel price forecast
Jinjiu demand in the steel market is less than expected, the long-short game is fierce, the market is more cautious and wait-and-see, the speculative sentiment is weak, the terminal purchases more on demand, and the spot steel price is mainly stable. Considering the continued increase in steel production and slow inventory digestion, is expected to fall steadily in the short term.
