The annual autumn is here, and the development of " Autumn Typhoon " will also usher in a peak. According to the annual situation, the "Autumn Typhoon" has the characteristics of strong explosive power and high destructive power, so everyone should prepare in advance.
. According to the data released by the Climate Center of my country:
In the autumn of 2022, there were 8 to 10 typhoons (center wind force ≥8) in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea waters, which is more than the same period of the year (11) : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2 to 3 of them may significantly affect my country, close to the same period of the previous year (2.3). The typhoon intensity is generally weak, and the main affected areas are the southern China and eastern coastal areas.
So, there are still quite a lot of typhoons.
Of course, many people may see this explanation as "the overall intensity of typhoons is weak", but what I need to remind here is that there are more super typhoons in autumn every year, and the climate in 2022 is very special. There are the effects of climate phenomena such as global warming and La Nina . It is not ruled out that abnormal situations will occur again.
. The overall intensity of the typhoon is weak here, which does not mean that there is no time for the "Autumn Typhoon" to erupt. Therefore, everyone needs to be vigilant about the development of typhoons in autumn.
This is not, although the first super typhoon this year, the wind king "Xuan Lannuo", did not appear in autumn. However, it is also a "cross-month" typhoon, which is the starting point of the "Autumn Typhoon".
This year's 11 Typhoon "Xuan Lannuo" also made many people feel strange. The course is actually in a state of westward or northward, and it still has such a large extent. This is enough to show that the climate has changed unusually.
Of course, we have also mentioned the reason before, that is, this year's wind king "Xuan Lannuo" is mainly due to the obvious impact of subtropical high pressure. This has led to a large-scale "sub-high" of more than 40 degrees in summer in my country this year. Even if it enters autumn, it is still in a "strong" state.
So, even if the Feng Wang "Xuan Lannuo" appears, it is difficult to directly break through. Initially, various climate centers considered it a small typhoon and went directly north to attack Japan.
However, this is not the case. It cannot break through the powerful subtropical high pressure in the northwest Pacific region, and can only walk westward along the subtropical high pressure. This also makes many people think that this typhoon developed in in the central region of Pacific region of . , may be tilted all the way It even entered Guangdong, Fujian and other regions in our country.
However, all this changed again. In the process of developing westward in my country, subtropical high pressure has undergone a "major change" and has actually been "cut off", making room for this year's 11 Typhoon "Xuan Lannuo".
So, after the No. 11 Typhoon "Xuan Lannuo" stopped and slowly turned around, it changed direction and would go directly north. From the new situation, although the typhoon has weakened, it is mainly because it is "almost motionless", which has caused the energy to not keep up at all.
Therefore, it has caused limited development, and we can also see from the development model of " Typhoon Eye " that a "chaotic" state has appeared. So, this is indeed a weakening trend. However, on September 3, Typhoon "Xuan Lannuo" on the 11th will move to the northwest direction, and move into the East China Sea sea surface on the night of the 3rd, and the intensity will develop again.
According to my country's climate center, after entering my country's East China Sea region, the sea temperature in the East China Sea region is still above 27 degrees, so it provides a development basis for the development of the Fengwang "Xuan Lannuo", and is expected to reach a super level again. Strong typhoon level.
And this is the most critical moment when Feng Wang "Xuan Lannuo" influenced our country. At first, many institutions believed that Feng Wang "Xuan Lannuo" at this time may be far away from our country's , Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and , and its impact on our country was also very different. Not very big.
However, as the typhoon further approaches the East my country Sea, the space for this change has also increased, and it is becoming closer to the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions of my country. Therefore, judging from the current situation, it is impossible to rule out the possibility of not entering the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai areas of our country. my country's climate center will also route further to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai areas in my country.
So, it is impossible to rule out whether it is possible to log in to my country later. The main reason is also very simple, that is, the subtropical high pressure changes greatly.
After the subtropical high-pressure "break" was "breaking", it has been in an enhanced state again from September 4th, when Typhoon "Xuan Lannuo" on the 11th continues to move north. This means that the "squeezing" of Typhoon No. 11 "Xuan Lannuo" will be strengthened. Therefore, the risk of getting close to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in my country is extremely high. my country's climate center also shows that when it goes north, it will gradually move toward the coast of northeastern Zhejiang, near
, and then from the night of the 4th to the morning of the 5th, it will turn northeastward on the coast of Zhejiang, towards the southern part of the Korean Peninsula to Japan. The coastal area of Honshu Island.
So, this period is the strongest moment when Typhoon No. 11 "Xuan Lannuo" and subtropical high pressure "fight" the strongest, it depends on who can quickly get rid of each other's influence. This is also a critical period for deciding whether to log in to our country, and everyone needs to be vigilant. Of course, even if this typhoon does not land in our country and breaks out again in the East China Sea area, its impact will inevitably increase.
my country's offshore areas will be affected by obvious wind and rain. Heavy rain, heavy rain, and local heavy rainstorms. Regional gusts may also reach level 10 or above. It cannot be underestimated. This is the No. 11 Typhoon "Xuan Lannuo" Basic situation. However, after this typhoon, we did see the trend of new typhoons.
2 Typhoon plum blossom is also going to be generated? Judging from the simulation of GFS, the tropical disturbances of in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea areas will develop a lot. In early September, it is not ruled out that the typhoon No. 12 plum blossoms may develop. GFS is expected to appear in the distant sea area in eastern my country around September 8.
This typhoon embryo is a bit like the "residual" of the 98W typhoon embryo. There will be signs of continuous strengthening in the future, and there will be signs similar to Typhoon No. 11 "Xuan Lannuo". After hovering, it will go north and finally approach Japan.
At the same time, in the survival area of Typhoon No. 11 "Xuan Lannuo", new typhoon embryos may also appear and typhoons will develop. Therefore, according to the GFS simulation situation, Typhoon No. 12 may still appear in early September, but the preliminary simulation is unlikely to affect a large area of my country.
and the European Numerical Center (EC) simulation will also have new typhoon embryos appear in early September. Therefore, the active period of typhoons is really coming, and there are signs of development of Typhoon No. 12, Plum Blossoms, and I will continue to pay attention to it in the future.
Finally, I would like to emphasize again that there is room for changes in simulation data, and it is temporarily focused on observation. With the continuous emergence of autumn typhoons, there will be more typhoons in the future. As for how many typhoons will affect our country this year, I will understand at the end of the year. , in a short period of time, you only need to be alert to the development of Typhoon No. 11 "Xuan Lannuo".
