▲Related reports from Indian media
The U.S. Air Force is one of the important pillars of the United States in achieving global hegemony. However, in recent years, the United States has become increasingly worried that this advantage is about to be lost. Not long ago, the Indian media "Eurasia Times" quoted a senior US Air Force executive as saying that the United States is worried that it will lose its air superiority in the face of China in 2035. However, the key factor in this trouble is not the J-20 itself, but the Chinese Air Force's system. the overall rise of globalization. Is this statement from the US side repeating old tunes and continuing to hype the "China threat", or has the overall strength of the Chinese Air Force truly reached a point where it can compete with the US military?
1. The U.S. military has repeatedly hyped the Chinese Air Force. It is understood that at a regular meeting of the U.S. Air Force Association in September last year, Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force Charles Brown clearly pointed out that by 2035, China will overtake U.S. air superiority. Now, This gap has begun to narrow. In this regard, Clint Hinot, the U.S. Air Force's deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, also expressed a similar view in an interview. He believes that the U.S. Air Force has fallen behind in some important areas, and theoretically this is not possible. situation, but it has happened today, which has lit up a red light for the United States.
▲The U.S. military uses even concept aircraft to conduct
high-level statements, which are also corroborated by relevant U.S. military exercises. According to a report by the U.S. "Defense News" website in April last year, the U.S. Air Force holds large-scale wargames against China every year. However, the results of the two-year exercise in 2018 and 2019 are not optimistic, because whether it is inside the Chinese defense zone or outside the defense zone, the result is the same-the US Air Force suffered a disastrous defeat. Of course, the U.S. Air Force has also won victories in relevant deductions. For example, in the fall of 2020, the U.S. Air Force "miserably defeated" China in a simulation drill with the background of preventing the "People's Liberation Army from attacking Taiwan." However, the process of this deduction caused huge controversy because the U.S. Air Force The Air Force unexpectedly used sixth-generation aircraft, drones and a series of equipment that were still in the research and development stage to win the simulation.
2. Progress We generously admit that
can be very confident, and can also say with great certainty that the strength of the Chinese Air Force has indeed improved significantly compared with before, and is even capable of competing with the United States. However, it should be noted that this improvement in strength does not rely on a single aircraft. Or the introduction of certain types of equipment is a demonstration of the improvement of the overall strength of the Chinese Air Force. This strength is the embodiment of the deterrent power of the Chinese Air Force and the key to the United States' fear.
▲ Highlights of the Chinese Air Force
Regarding the development of the Chinese Air Force, we proposed a clear development roadmap as early as 2018. Lieutenant General Xu Anxiang, deputy commander of the Chinese Air Force, met with reporters at the "Celebrating the 69th Anniversary of the People's Air Force "Meeting" proposed that the modernization of the Chinese Air Force will be designed and launched according to a three-step strategy: the first step is to basically cross the threshold of the strategic air force by 2020; the second step is to basically complete the strategic transformation of the air force and initially build a modern strategic air force by 2035; The third step is to fully build a world-class strategic air force by the middle of this century, that is, around 2050.
Combined with this development roadmap and the statement of Chinese Air Force spokesperson Shen Jinke at the 13th China International Aerospace Expo in August 2021, the Chinese Air Force has historically crossed the strategic air force threshold. This is a milestone for the Chinese Air Force, because it marks that we have initially reached the highest level of air force combat power and have basically made up for our shortcomings. But it should be noted that what is mentioned here is to basically make up for the shortcomings! According to the US, the Chinese Air Force will not be able to surpass the US Air Force until 2035. Why this time point? Because today we still have many shortcomings that need to be made up for.
3. The gap between the Chinese and US air forces is too big
1. The total number of military aircraft is very different
According to the data from Flight International's "World Air Forces 2021", as of 2020, the total number of military aircraft in our country is 3,260, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. What is the concept? During the same period, the total number of U.S. military aircraft was 13,232, and even the total number of Russian military aircraft reached 4,143, which is also higher than that of our country.Judging from the above data, the total number of our country's military aircraft is only a fraction of that of the US military. The gap between the two sides is nearly 10,000. This quantitative gap cannot be caught up in a short time. Without considering quality, the US military has no doubt that we have A crushing trend was formed. Of course, we don't have any quality advantage at all, because our army still has a large number of "old aircraft" with outdated performance that need to be upgraded urgently.
▲ J-7 ranks seventh in the world in terms of installed numbers
2, and a large number of "classic aircraft" are in urgent need of replacement
Data shows that our army's second-generation aircraft account for about 50% of the total number of fighter aircraft. On the other hand, there are no second-generation aircraft in active service in the US military. As for The proportions of third- and fourth-generation machines reached 87% and 13% respectively, and the generation difference advantage is significant. Fortunately, our military's equipment upgrading has accelerated in recent years. In the future, third-generation aircraft will be the mainstay, and fourth-generation aircraft will be the development trend. But after all, the scale of the replacement is too large. Even if the speed is increased, it will be at least 2035 before the goal can be initially achieved.
▲Other models of our military are too different from those of the United States.
3. Other models are too small.
According to the data given by "World Air Forces 2021", although there is an obvious generation gap between China and the United States fighter , the quantitative gap is not It is not obvious. In 2020, our military has 1,571 fighter jets and the total number of US military aircraft is only 2,717. The gap between the two is less than double. But if we look at the proportion, our military’s fighter jets account for 48.1% of the total number of military aircraft, but the US military’s fighter jets only account for 20.5%. Why is there such an obvious gap? Because other models of our military lag far behind the US military.
▲ Our army purchased a batch of Ka-52K heavy-duty carrier-based armed helicopters
In 2020, the total number of US military helicopters reached 5,343, but our army only had 902, a gap of more than five times. Among them, the total number of AH-64 "Apache" armed helicopters has reached more than 800. On the other hand, the Wuzhi-10 that our army can rival, the actual total number of installations is only more than a hundred. The quantitative gap between armed helicopters and makes it possible that our military has insufficient firepower in anti-tank, ground fire support, and support for landing operations. In view of the situation in the Taiwan Strait in recent years, our military's demand for such models has surged. In September last year, China and Russia just signed a purchase agreement for 36 Ka-52K heavy-duty carrier-based armed helicopters. This move is precisely to make up for our military's shortcomings in this field.
In addition, there is also a big gap between our military's special aircraft models and the United States. The US military has a total of 749 special aircraft models in active service, but our military has only 115. The total is even less than Japan's 161, and it can only rank among Fourth in the world. Special aircraft models theoretically include early warning aircraft , electronic reconnaissance aircraft, electronic jammers, anti-submarine patrol aircraft , intelligence reconnaissance aircraft, aerial tankers, etc. Our army has many of the above military aircraft, and they can all be used. The quantity is not much. At this stage, our military's special aircraft can basically only be modified based on the Yun-8 and Yun-9 prototypes. However, this is a medium-sized medium-range four-engine turboprop transport aircraft after all. Its flight radius, flight speed and maneuverability are slightly better. Inferior, and this also greatly limits the number of special aircraft models in our army.
▲The U.S. military P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft flew around the relevant sea areas
Judging from the development trend of the modern air force , the demand for special aircraft models has soared. For example, on January 24 this year, after the US military F-35C crashed in the South China Sea, the US military dispatched more than 10 special military aircraft in just two days, including RC-135V/W strategic reconnaissance, EP-3E reconnaissance aircraft , P -8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft, MQ-4C unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, etc. In addition, according to statistics from the "South China Sea Strategic Situation Awareness Plan" platform, the U.S. military dispatched up to 1,200 special military aircraft in the South China Sea in 2021. This high-frequency dispatch is largely due to the U.S. military's large special aircraft fleet.
Of course, in the face of this series of problems, our military has also initially developed solutions. For example, the Wuzhi-10 and Wuzhi-19, which have just solved engine problems in recent years, can fully catch up with the quantitative gap by increasing production. As for the shortage of special models, with the maturity of C919, I believe it will be solved in the near future. Of course, even then we will need time, and this key node is likely to be 2035.
▲ Added the bombardment of the aerial oil pipe - 6N
4. The core equipment is missing
This seems to be an old tune, but it is an unavoidable topic - strategic bomber . Judging from the previous information, the biggest gap between our army and the US military is quantity. As production increases, this gap can be caught up in a short time, so it is not a big problem. But like strategic bombers, this is a technical problem. For a long time in the past, the outside world has been controversial about China's "Trinity Nuclear Strike" capability. The root of the dispute is whether China has qualified strategic bombers. It is true that through continuous improvement and upgrading, the overall performance of the H-6 series bombers currently in service in our military has been very good. In particular, the latest H-6N has added an aerial fuel pipe, has aerial refueling capabilities, increased flight radius, and upgraded the fire control system and weapon carrying capabilities, but the actual range and bomb-carrying capabilities are different from those of the United States and Russia. There is still a clear gap in strategic bombers.
▲The US military B-52 bomber still in service
Like the B-52 that has been in service for more than half a century, the combat radius can still reach more than 7,200 kilometers, and the range can reach 16,200 kilometers. This kind of range is matched with the u.s. military’s all-over Overseas bases around the world can achieve global strikes without blind spots with just one model. This gap will be improved with the upgrade of to 6, but it will not be fundamentally solved. If you want to completely solve it, you can only change the machine. Although news of the H-20 H-20 H-20 is constantly exposed to the outside world, objectively speaking, it will take a long time for us to install this type of H-20 bomber. Even if we finally do it, it may take a long time to catch up with the US military in scale.
Overall, it is unrealistic for China to fully catch up with the U.S. Air Force by 2035, as mentioned many times by senior U.S. military officials. By then, the gap between the two sides will only narrow, but it will not lead to overtaking. Therefore, there is reason to believe that the U.S.’s remarks are repeating the same old tune. After all, it’s time to cry for poverty and demand military spending. Of course, for us, we do not want to surpass any country, nor do we want to set up imaginary enemies. We must be down-to-earth and follow the plan step by step. The modernization of the Chinese Air Force is fundamental.
