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In the past few days, Sino-US economic and trade negotiations have attracted much attention. If this suspended risk can be lifted, at least everyone can have a happy New Year. During the
negotiations, the most noteworthy thing was the RMB. continued to rise sharply, rising by about 700 points in a week, breaking the 6.78 mark. not only did a group of short-sellers lose all their money, but analysts also changed their tune. It seems that this is related to the Fed's slowdown in raising interest rates and the sharp decline of the US dollar index. But in the final analysis, it depends on the balance of power between the fundamentals of the US economy and other economies. This is the core of the exchange rate issue.
’s more aggressive prediction is that 2019 is likely to be a turning point, and the strong dollar cycle that began in 2012 may have reached its end.
As we all know, a strong U.S. dollar is a disaster for emerging countries. Many countries have been robbed during this cycle. If the strong U.S. dollar cycle ends, it will have an important impact on a series of asset prices, and many countries will be able to take a breather. .
However, if the RMB rises sharply, the accounts of export companies will be uglier. The only way to solve the exchange rate problem once and for all is to rely on the continuous internationalization of the RMB. The process of is destined to be a constant battle. The currency war has been going on for decades and will continue.
To understand all this, you need to have enough understanding of the past and present life of the RMB exchange rate. Let’s take a look!
