Dry bulk freight rates: BDI reported at 2013 points on July 12, -3.3% month-on-month and -39.0% year-on-year. According to CCTV News, on the 13th local time, the Hungarian government declared an energy emergency. The main measures include banning energy exports, canceling the ene

Liu Bowen

Investment consulting license number: Z0014252

Shipping/container capacity

[Important information]

1. Bulk freight rates: BDI reported at 2013 points on July 12, -3.3% month-on-month and -39.0% year-on-year.

2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of July 9 was 4143.8, -1.4% month-on-month, +5.4% year-on-year, of which the Shanghai-US West container freight rate was US$7,116/FEU, -3.0% month-on-month, +41.6 year-on-year %; Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is 5,697 US dollars/TEU, -0.6% month-on-month and -15.5% year-on-year.

3. According to CCTV News , on the 13th local time, the Hungarian government declared an energy emergency. The main measures include banning energy exports, canceling the energy price ceiling for households with higher than average consumption, and planning to increase domestic natural gas production.

4. China News Service reported that on the 13th local time, German State Secretary Jörg Kuchis said that Germany will soon stop importing coal and oil from Russia. Kuchis said that Germany will stop importing Russian coal from August 1 and Russian oil from December 31, which will also fundamentally change Germany's energy supply. Previously, Russian coal and oil accounted for more than 40% of Germany's imports.

5. On July 13, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.3% month-on-month and 9.1% year-on-year in June. Data show that the year-on-year increase in U.S. CPI was higher than the previous market expectation of 8.8%, once again setting a new record in 40 years. The market has fully expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 BP in July, and expectations for a interest rate hike of 100 BP have also been strengthened.

[Market Outlook]

In terms of containers, China's export growth in June exceeded expectations. The main contribution was driven by industrial supplies. The United States CPI entered the 9 era, and market interest rate expectations continued to rise, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation. As a result, demand-side pressure in European and American countries has gradually emerged, and expectations of a recent economic recession have strengthened. However, China's export growth remains resilient. Coupled with the recent intensification of port congestion in Europe, short-term freight rates are expected to remain volatile. Container freight rates are still expected to rebound seasonally in subsequent peak seasons. However, affected by rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound. .

In terms of dry bulk cargo, the shipping capacity of dry bulk carriers cannot be significantly increased in the short term. On the demand side, due to the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign countries and the increase in domestic coal production, the demand for imported thermal coal from China has remained sluggish. With the arrival of the rainy season, demand from Indian buyers has been sluggish, putting pressure on short-term shipments. However, India has stated that it is out of concern for domestic production and summer demand in India. Considering the surge in fuel demand caused by power peak, before its domestic coal production reaches 1 billion tons/year, the Indian government decided to withdraw its earlier announced plan to restrict coal imports, which is expected to increase thermal coal imports, superimposed on Europe after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There is still demand for coal storage, supporting coal shipments. In terms of iron ore, short-term shipping demand in Europe is weak due to the profit losses of steel mills and the reduction pressure brought by policy-based production restrictions in China in the second half of the year. However, weak infrastructure in China and Europe in the second half of the year is still expected to increase demand for iron ore. Provide some support. In terms of grain, global grain transportation demand is generally stable, and Ukraine's grain exports are still gradually recovering. In the short term, BDI freight rates are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. With the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are expected to bottom out and rebound.

soybeans/meal

[External market situation]

Overnight the CBOT soybean index fell 0.64% to close at 1362.47 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index rose 0.47% to close at 408.4 US dollars/short ton.

[Related information]

1.USDA export sales report outlook: As of the week of July 7, U.S. soybean export sales are expected to be -10-+500,000 tons, of which export sales in 21/22 are expected to be -20-+ 200,000 tons, export sales level in 2022/23 +100,000-300,000 tons;

2. Datagro: As of July 8, Brazil 2022 soybean sales reached 76.7% of the expected output, lagging behind last year’s sales speed, and also Below the five-year historical average, the data reflects a degree of market stagnation. Brazil's soybean output is expected to be 126.18 million tons. As of now, local farmers' transaction volume is expected to be 96.77 million tons, which is far lower than the 111.33 million tons in the same period last year;

3. General Administration of Customs : China imported 8.25 million tons of soybeans in June , 9.674 million tons in May; soybean imports from January to June were 46.284 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%;

4. My agricultural products: In the 27th week of 2022, soybean inventories at major oil mills across the country increased, soybean meal inventories and unexecuted contracts both increased. decline. Among them, soybean stocks were 5.4964 million tons, an increase of 37,600 tons from last week, an increase of 0.69%, and a decrease of 1.2889 million tons, or 19%, from last year. Soybean meal stocks are 1.0477 million tons, a decrease of 26,700 tons, or 2.49%, from last week, and a decrease of 120,500 tons, or 10.32%, from last year.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: Overnight U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations, causing the U.S. soybeans to fall back due to macroeconomic influences. However, due to the deep decline in the early market and the lack of substantial negative factors, the U.S. soybeans rebounded overnight. But overall, the weather conditions in the United States are still good, and the discount in Brazil is still falling. The market lacks substantial driving force for the rise. It is recommended to wait and see in the near future and mainly short sell on highs;

2. Arbitrage: M91 and RM91 set, M-RM09 price difference Band short ;

3. Options: wait and see (views are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling)

oil sector

[Influence from external market]

Cbot The main price of US soybean oil fell 1.7% to 56.71 cents. /lb; BMD crude palm oil The main price increased by 2.7% to 3863 ringgit /ton.

[Important Information]

1. Indonesia said on Wednesday it has temporarily stopped sending its citizens to work Malaysia, including thousands for the plantation industry, citing violations of a worker recruitment agreement signed by the two countries. protocol. The freeze is the latest blow to Malaysia. Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of palm oil and a key link in the global supply chain, currently faces a shortage of about 1.2 million workers, which could hamper the country's economic recovery.

2. It is rumored that Indonesia will reduce the special export tax by US$200 to 0 from July 15 to the end of August. If the rumors are confirmed, it will increase Indonesia's export sales and also cause short-term domestic prices to rise.

3. India's vegetable oil imports fell 12% year-on-year to 992,000 tons in June, and soybean oil imports in June were 231,000 tons lower than market expectations because some ships exported from South America will clear customs in July.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: It is rumored that Indonesia will lower the export levy by US$200, which will boost Indonesian domestic prices but is obviously not conducive to the international price trend. In addition, the weakening of international crude oil will put great pressure on the short-term oil and fat will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, p09 It will hover weakly at 7000-7500. In the medium term, domestic arrivals to Hong Kong may not be as good as expected. As consumption has begun to recover, there may be little room for further significant price weakness in August under the logic of futures return.

2. Arbitrage: continue to hold the y91 positive set, and it is recommended to gradually stop profits above 200; in addition, continue to hold the rape oil 91 positive set.

3. Options: Pay attention to the secondary point price strategy of oil.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Corn/Corn Starch

[Important Information]

html The analysis report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products in China in July pointed out that the current meteorological conditions in most corn-producing areas are generally better than the previous year, which is conducive to The growth of spring corn in the jointing stage and summer corn in the emergence stage, especially in northeastern production areas, is generally better than the previous year. It is expected that China's corn yield level is expected to hit a record high in 2022/23, and corn output will be the same as or slightly increase from the previous year. In terms of consumption, the pig production capacity is stable within a reasonable range, while the high quality and high price of wheat will restrict its feed substitution. It is expected that corn feed consumption will remain at a high level; the operating rate of corn deep processing enterprises has declined this month, but Still at the second-highest level in the year, industrial consumption will also maintain a growth trend.

2. According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data, corn starch stocks increased slightly this week, with the main increase reflected in Heilongjiang. Shandong's output dropped significantly this week, effectively easing sales pressure, and changes in corn starch inventory were not obvious; while the output in Northeast China has not decreased yet, and inventory continues to increase. As of July 13, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.157 million tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from last week, an increase of 1.14%, a monthly increase of 4.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.73%.

3. According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data, the corn starch operating rate dropped this week. As some companies in Shandong reduced production and shut down for maintenance to relieve inventory pressure, Shandong's operating rate dropped most significantly this week. This week (July 7-July 13), the total national corn processing volume was 534,400 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from last week's corn consumption; the weekly national corn starch output was 271,600 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from last week's output. Thousands of tons. The operating rate was 53.16%, a decrease of 3.50% from last week.

4. In the 28 weeks of 2022 (July 7-July 13), the country's main 126 corn deep processing companies (including 69 starch, 35 alcohol and 22 amino acid companies) consumed a total of 967,000 tons of corn, which was higher than the previous week. A decrease of 70,000 tons; a year-on-year increase of 107,000 tons, an increase of 12.47%. In terms of enterprise types, the consumption of corn starch processing enterprises accounted for 55.27%, digesting a total of 534,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the consumption of corn alcohol enterprises accounted for 28.85%, digesting 279,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week. tons; amino acid companies accounted for 15.88%, digesting 154,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: U.S. corn is entering a critical pollination stage, and dry weather may affect yields. As the domestic surplus grain is gradually consumed, the spot price will gradually tighten. In addition, the current futures price has been relatively underestimated, and there is the possibility of stabilizing and rebounding in the short term.

2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening price difference of starch corn in 09.

3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2660 and sell c2209-C-2840, or sell c2209-P-2800. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

pigs

[Market information]

1. Spot quotation: The purchase price of pigs fell to a certain extent yesterday evening. Among them, Northeast China is 22.4-22.8 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday; North China is 23-23.4 yuan/kg, down 0.4-0.6 yuan/kg from yesterday; East China is 22.8-23.8 yuan/kg, down 0.2-0.2 from yesterday. 0. yuan/kg; South China 22.8-25.4 yuan/kg, stable or up 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday; Southwest 22-22.6 yuan/kg, up 0.2-0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday;

2. Piglet and sow prices: As of the week of July 7, the price of 15 kilogram piglets was 743 yuan per head, an increase of 99 yuan from last week, and the price of 50 kilogram sows was 1,829 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan from last week;

3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : The meeting held that, The current pig production situation is generally stable and improving, the number of pigs kept and sold for slaughter remains stable, the production capacity of fertile sows is in a normal and reasonable area, and pig breeding has turned a loss into a profit. Affected by factors such as the reluctance of some farmers to sell pigs and secondary fattening, the price of live pigs increased significantly at the end of June and early July, and the recent fluctuations have stabilized.

Liu Bowen

Investment consulting license number: Z0014252

Shipping/container capacity

[Important information]

1. Bulk freight rates: BDI reported at 2013 points on July 12, -3.3% month-on-month and -39.0% year-on-year.

2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of July 9 was 4143.8, -1.4% month-on-month, +5.4% year-on-year, of which the Shanghai-US West container freight rate was US$7,116/FEU, -3.0% month-on-month, +41.6 year-on-year %; Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is 5,697 US dollars/TEU, -0.6% month-on-month and -15.5% year-on-year.

3. According to CCTV News , on the 13th local time, the Hungarian government declared an energy emergency. The main measures include banning energy exports, canceling the energy price ceiling for households with higher than average consumption, and planning to increase domestic natural gas production.

4. China News Service reported that on the 13th local time, German State Secretary Jörg Kuchis said that Germany will soon stop importing coal and oil from Russia. Kuchis said that Germany will stop importing Russian coal from August 1 and Russian oil from December 31, which will also fundamentally change Germany's energy supply. Previously, Russian coal and oil accounted for more than 40% of Germany's imports.

5. On July 13, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.3% month-on-month and 9.1% year-on-year in June. Data show that the year-on-year increase in U.S. CPI was higher than the previous market expectation of 8.8%, once again setting a new record in 40 years. The market has fully expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 BP in July, and expectations for a interest rate hike of 100 BP have also been strengthened.

[Market Outlook]

In terms of containers, China's export growth in June exceeded expectations. The main contribution was driven by industrial supplies. The United States CPI entered the 9 era, and market interest rate expectations continued to rise, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation. As a result, demand-side pressure in European and American countries has gradually emerged, and expectations of a recent economic recession have strengthened. However, China's export growth remains resilient. Coupled with the recent intensification of port congestion in Europe, short-term freight rates are expected to remain volatile. Container freight rates are still expected to rebound seasonally in subsequent peak seasons. However, affected by rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound. .

In terms of dry bulk cargo, the shipping capacity of dry bulk carriers cannot be significantly increased in the short term. On the demand side, due to the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign countries and the increase in domestic coal production, the demand for imported thermal coal from China has remained sluggish. With the arrival of the rainy season, demand from Indian buyers has been sluggish, putting pressure on short-term shipments. However, India has stated that it is out of concern for domestic production and summer demand in India. Considering the surge in fuel demand caused by power peak, before its domestic coal production reaches 1 billion tons/year, the Indian government decided to withdraw its earlier announced plan to restrict coal imports, which is expected to increase thermal coal imports, superimposed on Europe after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There is still demand for coal storage, supporting coal shipments. In terms of iron ore, short-term shipping demand in Europe is weak due to the profit losses of steel mills and the reduction pressure brought by policy-based production restrictions in China in the second half of the year. However, weak infrastructure in China and Europe in the second half of the year is still expected to increase demand for iron ore. Provide some support. In terms of grain, global grain transportation demand is generally stable, and Ukraine's grain exports are still gradually recovering. In the short term, BDI freight rates are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. With the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are expected to bottom out and rebound.

soybeans/meal

[External market situation]

Overnight the CBOT soybean index fell 0.64% to close at 1362.47 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index rose 0.47% to close at 408.4 US dollars/short ton.

[Related information]

1.USDA export sales report outlook: As of the week of July 7, U.S. soybean export sales are expected to be -10-+500,000 tons, of which export sales in 21/22 are expected to be -20-+ 200,000 tons, export sales level in 2022/23 +100,000-300,000 tons;

2. Datagro: As of July 8, Brazil 2022 soybean sales reached 76.7% of the expected output, lagging behind last year’s sales speed, and also Below the five-year historical average, the data reflects a degree of market stagnation. Brazil's soybean output is expected to be 126.18 million tons. As of now, local farmers' transaction volume is expected to be 96.77 million tons, which is far lower than the 111.33 million tons in the same period last year;

3. General Administration of Customs : China imported 8.25 million tons of soybeans in June , 9.674 million tons in May; soybean imports from January to June were 46.284 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%;

4. My agricultural products: In the 27th week of 2022, soybean inventories at major oil mills across the country increased, soybean meal inventories and unexecuted contracts both increased. decline. Among them, soybean stocks were 5.4964 million tons, an increase of 37,600 tons from last week, an increase of 0.69%, and a decrease of 1.2889 million tons, or 19%, from last year. Soybean meal stocks are 1.0477 million tons, a decrease of 26,700 tons, or 2.49%, from last week, and a decrease of 120,500 tons, or 10.32%, from last year.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: Overnight U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations, causing the U.S. soybeans to fall back due to macroeconomic influences. However, due to the deep decline in the early market and the lack of substantial negative factors, the U.S. soybeans rebounded overnight. But overall, the weather conditions in the United States are still good, and the discount in Brazil is still falling. The market lacks substantial driving force for the rise. It is recommended to wait and see in the near future and mainly short sell on highs;

2. Arbitrage: M91 and RM91 set, M-RM09 price difference Band short ;

3. Options: wait and see (views are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling)

oil sector

[Influence from external market]

Cbot The main price of US soybean oil fell 1.7% to 56.71 cents. /lb; BMD crude palm oil The main price increased by 2.7% to 3863 ringgit /ton.

[Important Information]

1. Indonesia said on Wednesday it has temporarily stopped sending its citizens to work Malaysia, including thousands for the plantation industry, citing violations of a worker recruitment agreement signed by the two countries. protocol. The freeze is the latest blow to Malaysia. Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer of palm oil and a key link in the global supply chain, currently faces a shortage of about 1.2 million workers, which could hamper the country's economic recovery.

2. It is rumored that Indonesia will reduce the special export tax by US$200 to 0 from July 15 to the end of August. If the rumors are confirmed, it will increase Indonesia's export sales and also cause short-term domestic prices to rise.

3. India's vegetable oil imports fell 12% year-on-year to 992,000 tons in June, and soybean oil imports in June were 231,000 tons lower than market expectations because some ships exported from South America will clear customs in July.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: It is rumored that Indonesia will lower the export levy by US$200, which will boost Indonesian domestic prices but is obviously not conducive to the international price trend. In addition, the weakening of international crude oil will put great pressure on the short-term oil and fat will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, p09 It will hover weakly at 7000-7500. In the medium term, domestic arrivals to Hong Kong may not be as good as expected. As consumption has begun to recover, there may be little room for further significant price weakness in August under the logic of futures return.

2. Arbitrage: continue to hold the y91 positive set, and it is recommended to gradually stop profits above 200; in addition, continue to hold the rape oil 91 positive set.

3. Options: Pay attention to the secondary point price strategy of oil.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Corn/Corn Starch

[Important Information]

html The analysis report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products in China in July pointed out that the current meteorological conditions in most corn-producing areas are generally better than the previous year, which is conducive to The growth of spring corn in the jointing stage and summer corn in the emergence stage, especially in northeastern production areas, is generally better than the previous year. It is expected that China's corn yield level is expected to hit a record high in 2022/23, and corn output will be the same as or slightly increase from the previous year. In terms of consumption, the pig production capacity is stable within a reasonable range, while the high quality and high price of wheat will restrict its feed substitution. It is expected that corn feed consumption will remain at a high level; the operating rate of corn deep processing enterprises has declined this month, but Still at the second-highest level in the year, industrial consumption will also maintain a growth trend.

2. According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data, corn starch stocks increased slightly this week, with the main increase reflected in Heilongjiang. Shandong's output dropped significantly this week, effectively easing sales pressure, and changes in corn starch inventory were not obvious; while the output in Northeast China has not decreased yet, and inventory continues to increase. As of July 13, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.157 million tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from last week, an increase of 1.14%, a monthly increase of 4.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.73%.

3. According to Mysteel agricultural product survey data, the corn starch operating rate dropped this week. As some companies in Shandong reduced production and shut down for maintenance to relieve inventory pressure, Shandong's operating rate dropped most significantly this week. This week (July 7-July 13), the total national corn processing volume was 534,400 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from last week's corn consumption; the weekly national corn starch output was 271,600 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from last week's output. Thousands of tons. The operating rate was 53.16%, a decrease of 3.50% from last week.

4. In the 28 weeks of 2022 (July 7-July 13), the country's main 126 corn deep processing companies (including 69 starch, 35 alcohol and 22 amino acid companies) consumed a total of 967,000 tons of corn, which was higher than the previous week. A decrease of 70,000 tons; a year-on-year increase of 107,000 tons, an increase of 12.47%. In terms of enterprise types, the consumption of corn starch processing enterprises accounted for 55.27%, digesting a total of 534,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the consumption of corn alcohol enterprises accounted for 28.85%, digesting 279,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week. tons; amino acid companies accounted for 15.88%, digesting 154,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: U.S. corn is entering a critical pollination stage, and dry weather may affect yields. As the domestic surplus grain is gradually consumed, the spot price will gradually tighten. In addition, the current futures price has been relatively underestimated, and there is the possibility of stabilizing and rebounding in the short term.

2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening price difference of starch corn in 09.

3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2660 and sell c2209-C-2840, or sell c2209-P-2800. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

pigs

[Market information]

1. Spot quotation: The purchase price of pigs fell to a certain extent yesterday evening. Among them, Northeast China is 22.4-22.8 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday; North China is 23-23.4 yuan/kg, down 0.4-0.6 yuan/kg from yesterday; East China is 22.8-23.8 yuan/kg, down 0.2-0.2 from yesterday. 0. yuan/kg; South China 22.8-25.4 yuan/kg, stable or up 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday; Southwest 22-22.6 yuan/kg, up 0.2-0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday;

2. Piglet and sow prices: As of the week of July 7, the price of 15 kilogram piglets was 743 yuan per head, an increase of 99 yuan from last week, and the price of 50 kilogram sows was 1,829 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan from last week;

3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : The meeting held that, The current pig production situation is generally stable and improving, the number of pigs kept and sold for slaughter remains stable, the production capacity of fertile sows is in a normal and reasonable area, and pig breeding has turned a loss into a profit. Affected by factors such as the reluctance of some farmers to sell pigs and secondary fattening, the price of live pigs increased significantly at the end of June and early July, and the recent fluctuations have stabilized.Since the production capacity of fertile sows is sufficient, there is no basic condition for continued sharp rise in the later period;

4. Pig Farming Network : Wang Zuli, an expert on pig industry monitoring and early warning from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that the recent rapid rise in pig prices is mainly due to the two days before the Spring Festival. The price of live pigs fell every month, and there was no price rebound near the Spring Festival. This abnormal phenomenon caused farmers to be reluctant to sell during the Spring Festival. According to the practice in previous years, a large number of pigs will be slaughtered before the Spring Festival and less after the New Year. Therefore, the slaughter volume after the New Year this year is higher than in previous years.

[Trading strategy]

1. Unilateral: The domestic pig spot market price has maintained a high volatility in the recent past, and independent farmers and breeding companies are more willing to pay higher prices but are reluctant to sell. Slaughtering companies have difficulty in continuing to lower prices. In addition, the slaughter weight of their own pigs is not high, which supports supply. Relatively tight, spot prices are unlikely to fall too much. The short-term futures market still recommends buying on dips;

2. Arbitrage: wait and see (the above views are for reference only and not used as a basis for market entry)

chicken

[Important information]

1. White feather broiler chicken: Shandong white feather broiler shed last night The current mainstream quotation is about 4.70 yuan/jin, with an increase of 2-5 cents. It is expected that the price in front of the shed in Shandong will be stable tonight. The mainstream price in front of the mainstream shed in Shandong is 4.70 yuan/jin, and the price increase will weaken. (My Agricultural Products Network)

2. White-feathered broiler chicks: On July 14th and July 15th, the price of white-feathered broiler chicks from Shandong Dachang was 2.80 yuan/bird, and the transaction price of Shandong Zhongda Factory’s chicken chicks was 2.40-2.60 yuan/bird, small factory The transaction price of chicks is 1.70-2.40 yuan/bird. (My Agricultural Products Network)

3. Segmented products: On July 13, the price of white feather segmented products was overall stable. The price of frozen large breasts in East China and North China was 10.7-11.0 yuan/kg, which was +0.2 yuan/kg month-on-month.

4. Zhuochuang Information : From July 1st to July 7th, Zhou Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 50.228 million white-feather broiler sample companies emerging, with a month-on-month increase of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%.

5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week from July 1st to July 7th was 55.76%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.88 percentage points; the average storage capacity rate of frozen products was 66.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06 percentage points.

6. Zhuochuang Information: In June, 404 million feathered chickens were slaughtered, -5.2% year-on-year. From January to June 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broilers was 2.261 billion birds, -3.5% year-on-year.

7. According to statistics from the Brazilian Animal Protein Association ABPA: Brazilian pork exports to the world totaled 93,500 tons in June, a 14% decrease from the same period in 2021. Brazil exported 108,800 tons in June 2021.

[Market Outlook]

As the current chicken replenishment can avoid being released in the dog days of summer, and farmers have begun to replenish the chicken stock Mid-Autumn Festival National Day peak season, the demand for hatching eggs has improved, and the willingness to replenish the chicken is expected to continue to increase, and the chickens will continue to rebound. . On the consumer side, the epidemic situation has recently rebounded in many regions such as Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Lanzhou and other regions. With the superimposed school holidays, group meals and dining out channels are expected to be suppressed. In terms of raw chickens, although the sales of raw chickens increased in June, the overall level was still lower than the same period last year. The slaughter volume of raw chickens in June was 404 million, a slight month-on-month increase and -5.2% year-on-year. Boosted by the rise in pig prices, short-term price fluctuations of raw chickens are expected to be dominated by fluctuations. The uncertainty depends on the rebound of the epidemic. In the second half of the year, supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices, raw chicken prices are expected to remain high.

eggs

[Important information]

1. Spot: Egg prices across the country were stable yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas being 4.49 yuan/jin, which was the same as the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 4.64 yuan/jin, which was 4.64 yuan/jin, higher than the previous Prices were flat during the trading day. Today, egg prices across the country continue to be stable. Prices in the Beijing market remain stable. The wholesale price of mainstream Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream products is 197 yuan/44 pounds, which is the same as yesterday's price. As of 7 a.m., the total arrival of 4 goods on Great Ocean Road is There are fewer cars arriving, and goods are generally sold. The mainstream wholesale price is 195-200 yuan/44 pounds, which is basically the same as yesterday’s price. Today, egg prices are stable in most production areas, while prices in some production areas have fallen slightly.

2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in June 2022 was 1.181 billion, an increase of 0.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, in line with expectations. In June, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.98 million birds, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.

3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of July 8 was 14.42 million, a decrease of 5.5% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information’s monitoring statistics on the 5-day age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of July 7 was 503 days, 1 day more than the previous week.

4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of July 7 were 7504.6 tons, an increase of 3.2% from last week.

5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of July 7, both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.39 days, a decrease of 0.07 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.88 days. A decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous week.

6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country was mainly stable. The average price in the main production areas of Tao chicken was 6.26 yuan/jin, which was 0.01 yuan/jin higher than the price on the previous trading day.

[Operation Suggestions]

1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of eggs in production was still relatively low in June. The number of eggs continued to recover but at a slow pace. However, the egg production rate dropped due to hot weather. Overall, the egg supply was average. On the demand side, peak consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival begins in July, and catering and tourism consumption will increase later when epidemic prevention and control is relaxed. Recently, spot egg prices have risen significantly. The price of pork has risen sharply recently, and the price of Taobao chicken has also increased. It is expected that the substitute role of eggs will increase, and stocking for the peak consumption season will begin, and the spot price of eggs will continue to rise. In terms of futures, the commodity has generally fallen recently, and the market transaction feed cost has been reduced. The September contract has dropped to a minimum of around 4300. This price corresponds to the lower expected future inventory support. However, the spot price of eggs has recently begun to increase, and the price of pork has increased. The sharp rise has driven egg consumption, and it is recommended that you consider opening long positions on dips.

2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

white sugar

[Important information]

1. The Brazilian Sugar Cane Industry Association (Unica) released data on Tuesday showing that in the second half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil was lower than market expectations. Sugar production fell sharply from the same period last year as sugar mills bet on ethanol. Unica data shows that in the second half of June, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume totaled 41.87 million tons, a decrease of 7.9% from the same period last year; Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights had previously expected the crushing volume to hit 4,263 million tons. Thousands of tons. The report shows that in the second half of June, sugar production in the central and southern production areas was 2.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.98%, including a 3.9% decrease in ethanol production produced from corn to 2.02 billion liters. According to a survey by S&P Global Commodities, analysts predict that sugar production will be 2.53 million tons, and ethanol production produced from sugar cane will be 1.98 billion liters.

html The analysis report on the supply and demand situation of China's agricultural products in July 32. pointed out that heavy rainfall continued to occur in some sugarcane areas in Guangxi in June, which had a certain adverse impact on the tillering and growth of sugarcane in low-lying areas. Further observation is needed in the future. The growth of beet is generally normal. At present, the domestic sugar market is in a pure sales period. Imported raw sugar is arriving in Hong Kong one after another, the start-up rate of processed sugar factories is increasing, and the supply of sugar is increasing. However, affected by factors such as the domestic epidemic situation, demand has not yet fully recovered, and the destocking speed is slow. Based on comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the domestic sugar market will mainly operate smoothly.

html On March 14, spot quotations were mainly lowered overall, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton. The spot buying and selling atmosphere was weak, and some basis sugar transactions were acceptable. The overall continuation was average.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: Brazil's sugar production is lower than expected, providing positive support, and raw sugar continues to rise and recover.Domestic futures prices have continued to adjust, and the late-term price has been significantly discounted to the spot price. As domestic temperatures rise, consumption will gradually increase. The later-term spot price is expected to gradually strengthen. Zhengtang is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound in the near future.

2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to Baitang 91 regular set.

3. Options: Sell SR209-P-5900. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

cotton - cotton yarn

[External disk impact]

The price of the main ICE US cotton contract fluctuated and fell overnight. The December contract fell by 3.19 cents/pound (-3.51%) to 87.65 cents. /pound.

[Important information]

1. Central reserve cotton rotation notice, 6,000 tons of cotton (official weight) will be purchased through the National Cotton Trading Market on July 14, an increase of 1,000 tons from yesterday, with a maximum price of 17,401 yuan/ton (standard grade) 3128B price), down 149 yuan/ton from yesterday.

2. On July 13, the central reserve cotton came into the market with a quantity of 5,000 tons, and the actual transaction volume was 5,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 100%. Today's average transaction price is 16,254 yuan/ton, the highest transaction price is 16,400 yuan/ton, and the lowest transaction price is 16,150 yuan/ton. Among them, 5,000 tons were traded at inland warehouses and 10 storage warehouses were traded.

3. According to the latest customs statistics: my country's textile and clothing exports in June were US$31.546 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.03%, and a month-on-month increase of 7.93%. Among them, textile exports were US$13.505 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.73%, and clothing exports were US$18.042 billion. , a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and a month-on-month increase of 18.7%. From January to June 2022, my country's textile and clothing exports totaled US$156.615 billion, an increase of 11.58%, of which textile exports were US$76.362 billion, an increase of 11.32%, and clothing exports were US$80.253 billion, an increase of 11.83%.

[Operation suggestions]

1. Unilateral: The current cotton spot price has fallen to a low price. Domestic cotton prices are significantly lower than abroad, but orders from downstream textile mills are still few. The startup rate of textile companies is low, and the profits of textile companies are hard to see and touch. Without quantitative support, it is difficult for the downstream to form purchasing power. Consumption is weaker than expected, and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are strong. The general trend of commodities is weakening. It is expected that Zheng Zheng The general trend of cotton will also maintain a volatile and weak trend, but there may be a technical rebound in the short term. It is recommended to open short positions on rallies. Yesterday, on the first day of cotton reserve rotation, the average transaction price was relatively low, and the market's selling sentiment was still relatively strong. The general trend of cotton yarn is the same as that of cotton.

2. Arbitrage: The internal and external arbitrage considers short US market and long Zheng cotton.

3. Options: The market may rebound in the short term and the current volatility is high. It is recommended to consider selling call options . (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

peanuts

[Important information]

The peanut market has seen a slight improvement in recent shipments compared with the previous period. The demand for replenishment has increased in the near future. The quotes for finished rice are relatively strong, and traders are obviously willing to raise prices. . Looking at different production areas, the price of 308 rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin, and some good products are quoted at 4.90 yuan/jin. The price of currency rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/catty, and the price of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/catty. The transaction price depends on the quality; the price of currency rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/catty. The arrival volume of oil plants remains at a low level. The transaction price of Luhua currency rice is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton. Only the Laiyang and Fuyu factories of Luhua factory are started. The other factories have all been shut down and will remain shut down for the time being. receiving status. Yihai Kerry has been completely stopped.

Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running weakly, and the bean rice dumplings have rebounded slightly, but the negative impact still exists. At present, there are few inquiries for peanut oil

, and the downstream market is still mainly waiting and seeing, with very few new transactions. Most oil plants are executing early orders, but delivery of early orders is slow. In terms of price, the current domestic average price of first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 17,000 yuan/ton; the market quotations of small-pressed strong-flavor peanut oil vary, with the mainstream quotation being 19,000 yuan/ton.

[Operational Suggestions]

Unilateral: Although peanut fundamentals are relatively independent compared to oil and crude oil, due to the recent influence of emotions and quantitative funds, the market is expected to be weak and consolidate. However, spot prices have been strong recently, raising the margin of safety. It is recommended to gradually build a position and go long 01 contract in the 9600-9800 range after the oil stabilizes.

html March spread: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling, and will be reset when the correction is between -100-200.

futures strategy: The basis difference is -400. There is no profit margin after removing the delivery cost, but there is still room for growth in the peanut market. You can choose the opportunity to operate at a higher point. Stay on the sidelines for now.

2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in June 2022 was 1.181 billion, an increase of 0.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, in line with expectations. In June, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.98 million birds, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.

3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of July 8 was 14.42 million, a decrease of 5.5% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information’s monitoring statistics on the 5-day age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of July 7 was 503 days, 1 day more than the previous week.

4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of July 7 were 7504.6 tons, an increase of 3.2% from last week.

5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of July 7, both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.39 days, a decrease of 0.07 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.88 days. A decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous week.

6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country was mainly stable. The average price in the main production areas of Tao chicken was 6.26 yuan/jin, which was 0.01 yuan/jin higher than the price on the previous trading day.

[Operation Suggestions]

1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of eggs in production was still relatively low in June. The number of eggs continued to recover but at a slow pace. However, the egg production rate dropped due to hot weather. Overall, the egg supply was average. On the demand side, peak consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival begins in July, and catering and tourism consumption will increase later when epidemic prevention and control is relaxed. Recently, spot egg prices have risen significantly. The price of pork has risen sharply recently, and the price of Taobao chicken has also increased. It is expected that the substitute role of eggs will increase, and stocking for the peak consumption season will begin, and the spot price of eggs will continue to rise. In terms of futures, the commodity has generally fallen recently, and the market transaction feed cost has been reduced. The September contract has dropped to a minimum of around 4300. This price corresponds to the lower expected future inventory support. However, the spot price of eggs has recently begun to increase, and the price of pork has increased. The sharp rise has driven egg consumption, and it is recommended that you consider opening long positions on dips.

2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

white sugar

[Important information]

1. The Brazilian Sugar Cane Industry Association (Unica) released data on Tuesday showing that in the second half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil was lower than market expectations. Sugar production fell sharply from the same period last year as sugar mills bet on ethanol. Unica data shows that in the second half of June, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume totaled 41.87 million tons, a decrease of 7.9% from the same period last year; Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights had previously expected the crushing volume to hit 4,263 million tons. Thousands of tons. The report shows that in the second half of June, sugar production in the central and southern production areas was 2.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.98%, including a 3.9% decrease in ethanol production produced from corn to 2.02 billion liters. According to a survey by S&P Global Commodities, analysts predict that sugar production will be 2.53 million tons, and ethanol production produced from sugar cane will be 1.98 billion liters.

html The analysis report on the supply and demand situation of China's agricultural products in July 32. pointed out that heavy rainfall continued to occur in some sugarcane areas in Guangxi in June, which had a certain adverse impact on the tillering and growth of sugarcane in low-lying areas. Further observation is needed in the future. The growth of beet is generally normal. At present, the domestic sugar market is in a pure sales period. Imported raw sugar is arriving in Hong Kong one after another, the start-up rate of processed sugar factories is increasing, and the supply of sugar is increasing. However, affected by factors such as the domestic epidemic situation, demand has not yet fully recovered, and the destocking speed is slow. Based on comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the domestic sugar market will mainly operate smoothly.

html On March 14, spot quotations were mainly lowered overall, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton. The spot buying and selling atmosphere was weak, and some basis sugar transactions were acceptable. The overall continuation was average.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: Brazil's sugar production is lower than expected, providing positive support, and raw sugar continues to rise and recover.Domestic futures prices have continued to adjust, and the late-term price has been significantly discounted to the spot price. As domestic temperatures rise, consumption will gradually increase. The later-term spot price is expected to gradually strengthen. Zhengtang is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound in the near future.

2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to Baitang 91 regular set.

3. Options: Sell SR209-P-5900. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

cotton - cotton yarn

[External disk impact]

The price of the main ICE US cotton contract fluctuated and fell overnight. The December contract fell by 3.19 cents/pound (-3.51%) to 87.65 cents. /pound.

[Important information]

1. Central reserve cotton rotation notice, 6,000 tons of cotton (official weight) will be purchased through the National Cotton Trading Market on July 14, an increase of 1,000 tons from yesterday, with a maximum price of 17,401 yuan/ton (standard grade) 3128B price), down 149 yuan/ton from yesterday.

2. On July 13, the central reserve cotton came into the market with a quantity of 5,000 tons, and the actual transaction volume was 5,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 100%. Today's average transaction price is 16,254 yuan/ton, the highest transaction price is 16,400 yuan/ton, and the lowest transaction price is 16,150 yuan/ton. Among them, 5,000 tons were traded at inland warehouses and 10 storage warehouses were traded.

3. According to the latest customs statistics: my country's textile and clothing exports in June were US$31.546 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.03%, and a month-on-month increase of 7.93%. Among them, textile exports were US$13.505 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.73%, and clothing exports were US$18.042 billion. , a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and a month-on-month increase of 18.7%. From January to June 2022, my country's textile and clothing exports totaled US$156.615 billion, an increase of 11.58%, of which textile exports were US$76.362 billion, an increase of 11.32%, and clothing exports were US$80.253 billion, an increase of 11.83%.

[Operation suggestions]

1. Unilateral: The current cotton spot price has fallen to a low price. Domestic cotton prices are significantly lower than abroad, but orders from downstream textile mills are still few. The startup rate of textile companies is low, and the profits of textile companies are hard to see and touch. Without quantitative support, it is difficult for the downstream to form purchasing power. Consumption is weaker than expected, and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are strong. The general trend of commodities is weakening. It is expected that Zheng Zheng The general trend of cotton will also maintain a volatile and weak trend, but there may be a technical rebound in the short term. It is recommended to open short positions on rallies. Yesterday, on the first day of cotton reserve rotation, the average transaction price was relatively low, and the market's selling sentiment was still relatively strong. The general trend of cotton yarn is the same as that of cotton.

2. Arbitrage: The internal and external arbitrage considers short US market and long Zheng cotton.

3. Options: The market may rebound in the short term and the current volatility is high. It is recommended to consider selling call options . (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

peanuts

[Important information]

The peanut market has seen a slight improvement in recent shipments compared with the previous period. The demand for replenishment has increased in the near future. The quotes for finished rice are relatively strong, and traders are obviously willing to raise prices. . Looking at different production areas, the price of 308 rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin, and some good products are quoted at 4.90 yuan/jin. The price of currency rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/catty, and the price of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/catty. The transaction price depends on the quality; the price of currency rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/catty. The arrival volume of oil plants remains at a low level. The transaction price of Luhua currency rice is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton. Only the Laiyang and Fuyu factories of Luhua factory are started. The other factories have all been shut down and will remain shut down for the time being. receiving status. Yihai Kerry has been completely stopped.

Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running weakly, and the bean rice dumplings have rebounded slightly, but the negative impact still exists. At present, there are few inquiries for peanut oil

, and the downstream market is still mainly waiting and seeing, with very few new transactions. Most oil plants are executing early orders, but delivery of early orders is slow. In terms of price, the current domestic average price of first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 17,000 yuan/ton; the market quotations of small-pressed strong-flavor peanut oil vary, with the mainstream quotation being 19,000 yuan/ton.

[Operational Suggestions]

Unilateral: Although peanut fundamentals are relatively independent compared to oil and crude oil, due to the recent influence of emotions and quantitative funds, the market is expected to be weak and consolidate. However, spot prices have been strong recently, raising the margin of safety. It is recommended to gradually build a position and go long 01 contract in the 9600-9800 range after the oil stabilizes.

html March spread: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling, and will be reset when the correction is between -100-200.

futures strategy: The basis difference is -400. There is no profit margin after removing the delivery cost, but there is still room for growth in the peanut market. You can choose the opportunity to operate at a higher point. Stay on the sidelines for now.