Today, A shares were weak in early trading, but showed a strong rebound in afternoon trading. Most of the stocks in the two cities fell, with 2,013 stocks rising and 2,508 stocks falling. Analysis of the reasons is related to these three points:
1. The United States claimed to raise interest rates and 100 basis points, causing a huge shock in the global stock market, affecting A shares. The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability that the Fed will announce a rate hike of more than 50 basis points this week has reached 100%, including 75 rate hikes. The probability of base points has also reached 30%.
While the market was tense, Standard Chartered Bank made even more shocking remarks. Although the Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its June meeting, it also pointed out that it does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points or even 100 basis points. The U.S. inflation rate in May exceeded expectations again, setting a new high in 40 years, shattering the "temporary" and "peaking" theories of inflation. This week, Barclays and Jefferies publicly forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week. Currently, the market has raised the upper limit again, predicting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 100 basis points. Overnight, not only the three major stock indexes of , US stocks and , but also global stock markets had a huge shock. Today, A shares were weak in early trading, which was also affected by the impact of the international market.
2. The short-term selling pressure is still large, and heavyweight stocks and hot stocks have formed a "concentration camp" where short-term profits have been cleared. Whether it is a bull market or a volatile market, it is impossible to keep rising in the short term. If it rises too much, there will definitely be a correction. In the morning trading, A-shares opened lower and fluctuated. Judging from the market trend, it was mainly caused by the heavy short-term selling pressure. Heavyweight stocks were weak, and the performance of hot stocks in the early stage was also poor, and even became a "concentration camp" for short-term profits and liquidations. , dragging down the market trend in the morning.
3. The technical aspect is bearish, which increases the scope of market fluctuations. If A-shares were under pressure in the morning session, in addition to the negative international atmosphere and increased short-term selling pressure, there are other reasons. The technical side is also bearish. The daily level MACD indicator continues to shorten, the five-day moving average begins to level off, and the upper pressure line gradually forms. There are signs of bearishness on the technical side, which increases the fluctuation of market sentiment and the scope of fluctuations.
4. The stock market suddenly became strong in late trading and stabilized, mainly due to the "contribution" of cyclical stocks and financial stocks. Although A-shares were overall weak in the morning session, cyclical stocks played a role in stabilizing the broader market and prevented the index from collapsing with weak strength amid the general decline in individual stocks. In the afternoon trading, the bulls gradually stabilized their position. brokerage stock suddenly "pulled up" and surged in a straight line, which quickly ignited the enthusiasm of financial stocks. The banking and insurance sectors followed the trend and boosted the rebound of the index.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.02%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.2%, the GEM Index rose 0.07%, and the turnover in the two cities was 1.0994 billion. In terms of industry sectors, 33 rose and 23 fell today. In terms of concept sectors, 104 rose and 115 fell. Concepts such as silicone , flammable ice , PVDF concept, shale gas , and pork were among the top gainers. Voice technology, automotive chips, and data security were among the top gainers. Concepts such as , cloud games, MCU chips, and third-generation semiconductors were among the top decliners. In terms of northbound funds, the net inflow throughout the day was 3.944 billion, Shanghai Stock Connect inflow was 3.638 billion, and Shenzhen Stock Connect inflow was 307 million.
The three major stock indexes had twists and turns during the session. They were weak in the morning session, but showed a strong rebound in the afternoon session. The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion again, but the number of individual stocks fell more, indicating that the current A-share market is in the stage of intense long-short game. Short-term selling has increased, but the bullish funds below are also relatively strong. Even if the international news is bearish, based on the market's historical bottom valuation scenario, the tension of bullish funds to buy at low prices still exists.
There are two main reasons for the strength of the pork concept sector. On the one hand, there has been a strong atmosphere of compensatory growth in the market sector recently, and the pork sector has become one of the targets of market funds; on the other hand, the price of pork is quite breakthrough, with today's average price Reaching a new stage high, breaking through the 16 yuan mark, which has a stimulating effect on the pork concept sector.
As for whether A-shares will fall sharply tomorrow and how they will go, from an objective perspective, the sudden strength of A-shares in late trading today is more due to the stimulation of good domestic news and the linear "pull-up" atmosphere of brokerage stocks. , but from a short-term perspective, A-shares have experienced a large increase in stage, and the technical divergence is obvious. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve will significantly raise interest rates, which will increase the probability of short-term suppression or shocks.
As far as investors are concerned, facing the current scenario, it is reasonable to reduce short-term speculation because the probability of guessing wrong is increasing. Of course, the mid- to long-term valuation of A-shares is still at the bottom range, so there is no need to be nervous about the trend. It is still a reasonable choice to stick to the mid- to long-term value. Instead of gambling in short-term risks, it is better to be honest with medium and long-term value.
This article does not contain any recommendations, and the stocks discussed do not constitute any recommendations. The stock market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious.
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