In the past month, U.S. long-term interest rates have risen from 1.4% to 1.8%, an increase of nearly 30%. Affected by this, the U.S. stock market has also fallen across the board, especially the Nasdaq index, a high-growth sector, which has fallen by more than 10%.

In the past month, U.S. long-term interest rates have risen from 1.4% to 1.8%, an increase of nearly 30%. Affected by this, the U.S. stock market has also fallen across the board, especially the Nasdaq index , which is a high-growth sector, has fallen by more than 10%. %. Our large A shares have also been affected to some extent. Their performance has been sluggish in the past month, and the GEM index , which is also a high-growth sector, has fallen by nearly 14%. But to be fair, the decline of our GEM is mainly It is still due to my own reasons, especially the decline of in high-prosperity fields such as new energy and , which caused the index to suffer. I can’t remember how many times I have spoken about the risk warnings of high-growth sectors.

Of course, some friends are still optimistic about the high-prosperity track. It is indeed the future industry direction and meets the development requirements of macro policies. There is nothing wrong with this, but the problem lies precisely in the "nothing wrong". If you think about it carefully, don’t others know about these high-prosperity tracks that you are familiar with? It has been ruined for a long time, and basically everyone knows it. This means that people who should buy it have already bought it, and people who should not buy it have also followed the trend and bought it. The price has risen precisely because of the continuous buying. However, when all the people who should buy and those who should not buy have already bought, and no one else takes over, the price will inevitably become unsustainable. This is the stock market.

Again, they are good, but not good if the price is too high. This is like a small restaurant making 100,000 yuan a year, which is pretty good, but if you were asked to spend 10 million to buy its store, would you be willing? You definitely don't want to. This is the truth, but people become stupid when it is placed on the secondary market. You have to understand that even the world's top companies such as Microsoft , Google , Qualcomm , etc. can't support this valuation, let alone the players whose foundation is not strong enough. I'm afraid it will tremble in its heart. . As the saying goes, "Although the tortoise has a long life, it still has its time; the snake that rides on the mist will eventually become ashes." The day is not far away when speculators will become ashes.

Let’s get back to the topic. Long-term interest rates in the United States and the United States are currently on an upward trend, but they are far from over. There is still a lot of room for improvement. In addition, it is certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, and it will be conservatively estimated to be three times. Therefore, market interest rates will continue to rise, and bond prices will continue to fall. Therefore, here is an important reminder to stay away from various U.S. bond products. The future will definitely be a bear market for U.S. bonds, and try not to hold U.S. debt assets. So how will our domestic bond assets perform?

Our current domestic monetary policy continues to be loose, which is consistent with our judgment. Therefore, there is a downward demand for domestic interest rates. But we cannot only consider this factor. We also need to consider the interest rate difference between China and the United States. If the United States and Laos raise interest rates several times, our interest rates will not be able to fall indefinitely. Even now, there is not much room for downside. Therefore, the performance of our domestic bond assets will be relatively average this year, so we should allocate less.

As for the stock market, A shares and US stocks are not in the same cycle. As long as you are not holding high-growth sectors, it will not have a substantial impact. Didn’t you see that our monetary policies are completely opposite to those of the United States? The United States wants to raise interest rates, but our side not only lowered the reserve requirement ratio, but even lowered the interest rate yesterday. Therefore, my previous judgment is that the stock market is generally optimistic this year, but the structural market will be violently interpreted. It is not easy to make money, but some sectors have great potential.

finally responded to a question. Many friends asked yesterday that the LPR 5-year interest rate was lowered. Is there hope for housing prices? Let’s stop talking about the house. Don’t have any illusions anymore. When guns and guns have become the mainstream combat tools, don’t go to the battlefield with a broadsword. The era of the broadsword has come to an end. The price of being conservative is to be abandoned by the times. .

This article is an original article by Guo Zhanyuan. It only represents his personal views and is only for knowledge sharing. It does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk! Do you still choose Star Fund for ? Why are popular funds a trap?