Every reporter: Xiao Shiqing Every editor: Chen Xu
html On June 20, the central bank authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the latest loan market quotation rate (LPR) is: 1-year LPR is 3.7% , the LPR over 5 years is 4.45%. The above LPR is valid until the next LPR is issued." Daily Economic News " reporter noticed that in January this year, the 1-year LPR and the 5-year or above LPR fell simultaneously, and then remained unchanged for three consecutive months. On May 20, the LPR over 5 years fell by 15 basis points, while the 1-year LPR remained unchanged. As of now, the 1-year LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of
Oriental Jincheng , said that MLF interest rates remained unchanged in June, which means that the pricing basis of LPR quotations for that month has not changed; in terms of additional points, no RRR reduction was implemented in May, and credit extension was significantly accelerated, so regardless of From the perspective of bank capital costs or the balance of supply and demand in the loan market, the quotation banks lacked the motivation to lower the points in June.
“In May, the LPR quotations for maturities over 5 years were reduced by 15 basis points, which is quite large. This will also digest to a certain extent the impact of the April reserve requirement ratio reduction and the establishment of a market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates on the reduction of bank liability costs. Therefore, the unchanged LPR quotation in June is in line with the general market expectations," Wang Qing said.
6 PLR quotation remains unchanged Data source: public information IC photo Liu Hongmei chart
LPR remains stable within expectations
Talking about the June LPR remaining unchanged, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, accepted the WeChat account of the "Daily Economic News" reporter During the interview, he said: "The main reason is that the LPR interest rate of more than 5 years was lowered by 15BP in May, which is relatively large. The effect of the policy requires a certain period of time to be observed; at the same time, the domestic real estate market has large regional differences. The country adheres to and implements the principle of housing for living, not for speculation. Depending on the city, Implementing policies and precise regulation, various localities adopt policies to flexibly optimize lending and down payment ratios in accordance with the supply and demand of the real estate market and the requirements of local governments to promote the stable and healthy development of real estate. "
Zhou Maohua believes that the previously announced financial data overall exceeded expectations, and in May. The MLF quoted interest rate remains stable, and the market has expected that the LPR will remain stable this month. Specifically: First, the domestic economy has recently shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. With the domestic epidemic under control and policies to bail out companies and stabilize growth have taken effect, the financing demand and structure of the domestic real economy have improved significantly in May.
Second, some small and medium-sized banks are under great operating pressure. Affected by factors such as the complex internal and external macroeconomic environment and intensified market competition, some small and medium-sized banks are under great pressure on profits and liabilities, and it is difficult to reduce the "additional points" in the short term; in addition, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth and increment has been implemented at the forefront, and the policy effect is effective. This shows that short-term policy is expected to turn to wait and see.
Wang Qing believes that the unchanged LPR quotation in June will not affect the continued reduction of actual loan interest rates. The current economy is in the early stages of recovery, and policies are focusing on guiding banks to increase credit extension to benefit the real economy. As a result, in order to stimulate the credit demand of enterprises and residents, banks have the motivation to continue to lower the actual loan interest rate in the short term.
There is still some room for downward adjustments in the future
When predicting the direction of LPR quotations and monetary policy in the next stage, Wang Qing believes that there is still some room for downward adjustments in LPR in the future.
He said that in the next few months, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue to significantly tighten monetary policy, domestic monetary policy will pay more attention to internal and external balance while adhering to the "me-centered" tone, and the MLF interest rate will be lowered. Less likely. However, considering that the export growth rate is likely to continue to decline in the second half of the year, real estate will continue to operate at a low level, and domestic consumption recovery may be slow, policy needs to be moderately strengthened in the direction of stabilizing growth.
Wang Qing judged that the focus of the next monetary policy operation will be to stabilize policy interest rates, focus on guiding loan interest rates downward, continue to reduce the financing costs of the real economy, and consolidate the momentum of economic recovery. This also includes lowering mortgage interest rates and promoting the recovery of the property market in the third quarter. . The LPR reform provides corresponding policy tools for regulators. It is expected that while the MLF interest rate will remain unchanged in the second half of the year, regulators are expected to drive down LPR quotations by guiding banks' capital costs downward, thereby lowering corporate and residential loan interest rates.
Zhou Maohua believes that at present, the domestic economy is still in a critical stage of recovery. According to May financial data, there is still room for improvement in the structure of real estate and corporate mid- and long-term loans. However, in the complex environment at home and abroad, further adjustments to domestic policies need to wait for the macroeconomic and Financial data provides further guidance.
He emphasized that domestic prudent monetary policy is expected to continue to remain loose. On the one hand, it will strengthen fiscal, financial, industrial and other policy coordination and implement policy measures; on the other hand, it will guide financial institutions to increase their physical presence through structural tools and reform means. Support for economic weak links, infrastructure, green development, manufacturing and emerging fields to effectively alleviate financing problems.
Daily Economic News
Daily Economic News
