At the beginning of the Asian session on October 28 (Friday), U.S. oil traded around $88.63 per barrel; oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, as record-breaking optimism about U.S. crude oil exports and signs of weaker recession fears overshadowed concerns about weak demand. Data shows that U.S. crude oil exports hit a new high, which is a hopeful signal for demand. After European Central Bank hikes 75 basis points, speculation that central bank hikes may be close to the end of interest rate hike cycle further supports oil prices.
html within 4 days focus on the annual rate of the PCE price index in September and the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October.
Positive factors affecting oil prices
[U.S. economy rebounded strongly due to trade driven by trade]
With the reduction of trade deficit , the US economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, but due to Fed aggressive hike rate , domestic demand was the weakest in two years, so this data exaggerated the health of the US economy. GDP shrinks by 0.6% in the second quarter, with an annualized rate of 2.6% in the third quarter, and economists predict a growth of 2.4%. The narrowing of the trade deficit contributed 2.77 percentage points to GDP growth, the biggest contribution since the third quarter of 1980, but the growth rate of consumer spending slowed to 1.4% from 2.0% in April-June.
[ Macron warns that France's energy prices will rise by 15% at the beginning of next year]
On October 26, local time, French President Macron issued a warning about energy prices in an interview with the media. Macron said that the prices of French electricity and natural gas will rise by 15% early next year, and the French government is taking measures to avoid a larger increase in energy prices.
European governments, including France, are looking for ways to cope with soaring energy prices, rising cost of living and high inflation. According to statistics from EU , the inflation rate of euro zone in September reached 9.9%, higher than 9.1% in August.
[The deployment trend of the new U.S.
The US "Political News Network" quoted a diplomatic document on the 27th, saying that US officials told NATO allies at a closed-door meeting in Brussels this month that the time for the B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb to arrive at NATO's European base will be advanced from next spring to December this year. Two people familiar with the matter revealed that the deployment time of the nuclear bomb may be further ahead of the time shown in the document.
reported that the US may consider more about deploying new nuclear bombs in advance, because they believe they are particularly vulnerable to attacks from Moscow . Tom Kolina, policy director of the American Plough Foundation at the disarmament organization, analyzed that the Russians knew that there was an B61 nuclear bomb in Europe, and the upgraded version would be updated, "but there is not much difference." "When allies feel threatened by Russia, this may be a way to provide them with assurance."
[An important energy facility in Ukraine was attacked]
On October 27th local time, the Ukrainian Presidential Office said that an important energy facility in Ukraine was attacked at night. Energy shortages will occur in central Ukraine, and some areas of Kiev, Chernigov, Cherkass and 时有时有时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时时�
[Russia's natural gas supply to Europe has dropped by 50 billion cubic meters in the past few months]
On October 27, local time, chairman of Novatech, the major Russian natural gas producer, Leonid Micherson, said at the 15th Verona Eurasian Economic Forum that in the past 4 to 5 months, Russia's natural gas supply to Europe has dropped by 50 billion cubic meters. As of October 1, the decline was 47%.
negative factors affecting oil prices
[Strong economic data affects digestion, US stock closes lower]
US stock market S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index closed lower on Thursday, investors digest strong economic data and mixed corporate performance.
Dow Jones Industrial Average was driven by industrial stocks, while the weak performance of the weighted technology stocks and technology-related large-cap stocks have put the S&P 500 and Nasdaq under frustration of quarterly results and bleak financial forecasts. "Today's market trends are differentiated, and a two-city story has been staged."
Ghriskey also said, "Companies with high technology and technology content and high-growth companies are under great pressure. On the other hand, other sectors have performed strongly, especially consumer goods, energy, finance, industry and utilities sectors."
Facebook parent company Meta? Platforms plummeted 24.6%, after the company followed the footsteps of Microsoft and AlphabetInc and released a bleak financial forecast.
But heavy equipment maker Caterpillar (Caterpillar) reported better-than-expected quarterly profits, causing its share price to jump 7.7%, providing the biggest impetus for the Dow's rise. GDP data for the third quarter showed that the U.S. economy resumed growth in the third quarter, and quarterly core inflation remained stable, helping to eliminate the stinging pain caused by corporate performance.
Investors continue to focus on the economic situation, looking for evidence that the Fed's series of aggressive interest rate hikes since March produced the expected effect of cooling the economy.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, although 75 basis points hikes at the end of the policy meeting on November 1-2 are almost certain, the probability of a hike dropping to 50 basis points in December is 55%.
Ghriskey added, "The most important theme is actually the Fed. The Fed will control the market trend in the next few months."
Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, industrial stocks rose the largest percentage , and communications services stocks fell the largest, due to the drag caused by Meta. The third-quarter financial report season reached its climax, with 227 companies in the S&P 500 index component companies having released financial reports, of which 74% of their performance exceeded analysts' average expectations.
analysts now expect overall profits of S&P 500 component companies to grow by 2.5%, compared with an expected 4.5% increase in early October. “Overall, we have seen earnings reach or slightly higher than expected,” Ghriskey said. "But these expectations have been downgraded throughout the quarter."
fast food chain McDonald's rose 3.3%, after the quarterly same-store sales reported exceeded expectations. Southwest Airlines rose 2.7% after the company announced quarterly profits of exceeded expectations. Amazon fell more than 19% in after-hours trading after the company gave disappointing sales forecasts.
Apple fell sharply by more than 5% in after-hours trading, after the company announced revenue and profits that exceeded expectations, but reported that iPhone sales were tepid. Intel jumped 7% after the market, and then narrowed its gains, even though the company had previously lowered its annual revenue forecast.
[ Putin delivered a speech downplaying nuclear concerns]
Russian President Putin did not express regret for the Ukrainian war on Thursday, insisting that the "special military operation" is still achieving its goals and that the West's dominance in world affairs is about to end.
At the annual foreign policy meeting in Moscow, Putin lashed out at the West for more than three and a half hours during the Q&A session. He seemed confident and relaxed, in stark contrast to his stiff, formal and uneasy expressions when he appeared in public at the beginning of the war. Asked if there were any disappointments in the past year, Putin simply replied: "No", although he also said he always thought about the Russians he lost in Ukraine.
His speech contained a series of dissatisfaction with “our Western opponents”, who said their “hegemony” was facing an inevitable collapse. Putin accused the West of inciting the Ukrainian war and creating chaos around the world. "The historical period of the West's dominance of world affairs is about to end," Putin said. "We are at the forefront of history, and the future may be the most dangerous, unpredictable and important decade since the end of World War II ."
Putin downplayed the nuclear confrontation with the West in his speech, insisting that Russia did not threaten to use nuclear weapon , but only responded to the nuclear "blacklist" of Western leaders."
Overall, concerns about the economic recession weaken, and the speculation that the central bank may approach the end of the interest rate hike cycle supports oil prices; in addition, although Putin's speech downplays nuclear concerns, the trend of the deployment of new nuclear bombs in the United States still triggers concerns, the risk of geopolitical uncertainty is still extremely high, and oil prices remain relatively bullish in the short term.
This article is from Huitong.com
