European and American stock markets closed in a mixed manner, with severe differentiation, and the three major European stock markets rose collectively, while US stock closed slightly with a small increase and a small decrease; US stocks were mainly affected by the negative impact of non-agricultural data exceeding expectations, resulting in a significant increase in the US rate hike in expected to increase in . What impact will the forecast of a significant increase in stock ? How will A-shares move next week?
U.S. non-agricultural data
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released non-agricultural data yesterday. According to the released data, the number of new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector in June was 372,000, which was significantly higher than the expected 250,000. The non-agricultural data exceeded expectations and will stimulate the United States to raise interest rates.
7 interest rate hikes in the United States are within the market's expectations. What the market is paying attention to is the extent of the US interest rate hikes, whether it is 75 basis points or 50 basis points; in the end, we still need to wait for the announcement of Federal . Different interest rate hikes will have different impacts on the United States and the world.
What impact will the interest rate hike have on A-shares?
Federal interest rate hike is a negative for the global capital market, that is, tightening the money bag will have an impact on global stock markets. Of course, A-shares are no exception, and will be affected by the Fed's interest rate hike.
In fact, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on A-shares is very limited, but the only impact is the liquidity of funds, that is, foreign capital will flow out, and the market hot money is not passionate about entering the stock market. Some funds will choose to deposit and take interest , and are unwilling to invest in the stock market to take risks.
Of course, the Fed's interest rate hike will have a negative impact on the liquidity of the global US dollar, while a shares are traded in RMB, and the impact on the Fed's interest rate hike is indeed very small. What affects the liquidity of foreign funds entering A-shares; the main funds of a-shares do not rely on foreign capital, but on the main funds, so the interest rate hike is definitely not very impacted on A-shares.
The only worry is that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply by 75 basis points in July, which will cause the European and American stock markets to collapse. If the European and American stock markets crash and fall, global stock markets will be affected, which is also the negative impact of interest rate hikes.
What will A-shares turn next week?
US non-farm data exceeded expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sharply. If the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates sharply next week, it will be a negative for global stock markets. If the interest rate hike of 50 basis points meets expectations, 75 basis points will be a negative for global stock markets next week.
predicts that the trend of A-shares next week is not optimistic. If you are pessimistic, you will directly enter a new round of correction. If you are optimistic, you will first counterattack and lure long at the beginning of next week. After lure long, you will enter a pullback and fall again. You will always be unable to escape the trend of pullback. Therefore, you will be in a wait-and-see state for the trend of A-shares next week.
Why is A-shares predicting that next week will enter a callback? Either directly callback or tempt long first and then callback? There are two main reasons.
First: a stocks were blocked at a temporary high level, and they have fluctuated at a high level for ten trading days. A-shares will definitely make direction choices next week. According to the performance of this week's index, sector and stock , the probability of A-shares choosing to change down next week is high.
As market fluctuates at a high level, the environment, popularity, hot spots and confidence have gradually declined. long lacks motivation. On the contrary, short is getting stronger and stronger, and the market index shows signs of a pullback. Judging from the Shanghai Composite Index MACD indicator, the high dead cross runs downward.
Second: itself A-shares will be the key to direction choice next week. If they are again negatively affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and are dragged down by the decline in European and American stock markets, it is particularly difficult for A-shares to strengthen independently under such market conditions.
Next week A-shares really want to refuse to change the market downward. Unless the national team takes action to lift the big financial sector, insurance and securities, etc., it will be difficult to reverse the change of A-shares next week. This is the main reason for the dissatisfaction of A-shares next week.
In short, be cautious about the trend of A-shares next week to prevent A-shares from falling downward, and at the same time prevent the Federal Reserve from raising sharp interest rates, causing global stock markets to fall ; of course, we should not be too pessimistic. Follow the trend and control the position .
