Starting from July, the semi-annual report cycle has entered. After the market rebounded from May to June, it has slowed down significantly in July and entered a period of shock. It is also a cycle of switching hot spots, and the mid-term report performance is the key. Today we First, we will sort out the particularities of the 2022 interim report, and then explore relevant potential industry factors.
The impact and analysis of the epidemic and Russia-Ukraine factors on the interim report:
The uncertainty of the 2022 interim report profit forecast lies in the second quarter profit, and the key variable in the second quarter profit is the epidemic. The epidemic trends in 2020 and 2022 are similar. In 2020, the profits of consumption, new infrastructure, midstream manufacturing, and TMT exceeded expectations, while the profits of growth, upstream raw materials, and industries with intensive epidemic outbreak areas were lower than expected. Therefore, the impact of this round of epidemic on profits mainly occurred in 2022Q2. April-May can be compared with the industry profit performance of 2020Q1, and June can be compared with the industry profit performance in April 2020.
The difference between the two rounds of epidemics is that the epidemic in 2020 was mainly concentrated in the central provinces of my country, while the epidemic in 2022 was mainly located in the eastern coastal areas of my country, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong and Fujian being the seven most affected areas. Provinces that focus on midstream high-end manufacturing and downstream optional consumption will also be greatly affected. In 2020, local stocks in Wuhan were speculated, and in 2022, local stocks in Shanghai were also speculated, but the performance was average, so we should pay attention to this factor and don't have too many extravagant expectations. It is an emotional factor that cheers for the city.
In addition to the epidemic factors, the Russia-Ukraine factor has brought about rising energy prices, and upstream resources have benefited significantly. Judging from the cumulative growth rate in the past few months, the industries with high performance are concentrated in upstream resource products, especially coal mining. , oil and natural gas mining, steel, non-ferrous metals and other industries have benefited from a substantial increase in product prices, but the profit growth rate of upstream resource products has dropped significantly. Therefore, the market has recently speculated on hot topics. These varieties can be at high levels, and further space is limited . Prices in agriculture and food are rising, but considering that this sector does not speculate on actual performance, it is still necessary to follow the previous game rhythm and not change strategies due to ups and downs in performance.
Overall profit data of the A-share market
The current profit upward cycle of A-shares reached the high point of this profit cycle in the first half of 2021. Since the third quarter of 2021, the profit growth of A-shares has slowed down quarter by quarter. Under the repeated suppression of economic recovery by the epidemic, A-share profit growth has further declined in the second quarter of 2022. The profits of industrial companies show that profits in April and May have turned into negative growth ranges. However, the market has rebounded since the end of April, which means Since the 2022 interim report is a testing process, whether it is falsification or verification that the rebound has substance, this is still relatively critical.
From a data perspective, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in May 2022 grew at a year-on-year rate of -6.5%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared with April. Since the resumption of work and production after the epidemic is in an orderly manner, June should be further restored on the basis of May, which means that April is a profit bottom (yes, low points are verified by rebounds). The greater the downturn, the greater the room for subsequent repairs. For example, among the cars that are hot on the market, the sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. However, we have seen that during the hype process, valuations are preferred, so some huge losses Stock speculation is booming, but the real varieties are lagging behind. Then, in the later period, there will be a recovery in such sectors, with concept stocks making up for the fall and performance varieties making up for the gains.
In addition, pay attention to financial and real estate data.From a financial perspective, banks, securities companies, and insurance should not be too bad, especially from a real estate perspective. Vanke’s previous tone has made everyone feel that the most pessimistic moment for the real estate market may have passed (many provinces and cities across the country have issued reports on the real estate market). Taking loosening measures, lowered the down payment ratio, lowered the first-home interest rate, or partially canceled purchase and loan restrictions, etc. Recently, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has increased). At that time, Poly Development, Gemdale Group, etc. all performed. Due to the central enterprise real estate The stability in the big cycle, especially the strong trend before 4.27, but the sluggish trend after that, the performance cycle should still be stable . For stock investors, once this is confirmed, there may be a certain amount of supplementary growth for related varieties of the real estate industry chain, such as building materials, machinery, home appliances, etc., but the real estate must be confirmed first before the latter order can be achieved.
We are still optimistic about new energy. We have analyzed it in detail in the first quarter. Although the stock price has fallen, the essence and performance have increased. Everyone is already familiar with photovoltaics. So from the perspective of wind power in 2021, we can see that orders are full. And production capacity has increased, so related varieties have also experienced a wave of market prices. This is a relatively typical "performance + oversold" factor .
In fact, there is a certain rotation in market speculation nowadays, from initial upstream profits to midstream and downstream, so we see greater opportunities in the later stages of consumer staples, medicine, etc. In this wave, we have seen a significant rebound in brewing, beverages, food, etc., especially Wu-liang-ye, Kweichow-Moutai, etc., which were sluggish in May and rebounded in early June. Then, according to the rotation order, we have seen that pharmaceutical stocks became active in mid-to-late June, and we have repeatedly reminded that this sector also has differentiation . Next, from the perspective of mid-term reports, we will give a detailed explanation of what are the opportunities and the continuing cycle. , related targets, etc., for your reference.
