Foreign Exchange Sky Eye APP News: During the Asian market on Monday (February 3), the Australian dollar fluctuated and rose against the US dollar, and is currently trading at 0.6701.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its November interest rate decision at 11:30 Beijing time on Tuesday (February 4). Better-than-expected inflation data and falling unemployment rates make the outside world currently believe that it is unlikely to cut interest rates, but it will cut interest rates before April and May. The probability is still relatively high. If the economic outlook deteriorates significantly, the likelihood of a rate cut in the coming months will rise further.
In addition, Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Lowe will deliver a speech on Wednesday (February 5), and Lowe will also testify before the Economic Committee of the House of Representatives on Friday (February 7), so please pay attention.
Last Friday (January 31), the Australian dollar fell 0.45% against the US dollar to 0.6692, falling for the third consecutive day, once falling to the lowest point since early October of 0.6683. The public health emergency in January dominated the trend of commodity currencies, especially The Australian dollar fell even further, plunging 4.6%, its worst monthly performance since May 2016.
Survey: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain stability in February, but will still cut interest rates during the year. A survey shows that the Reserve Bank of Australia may maintain its overnight lending rate at a record low of 0.75% in February, but will cut interest rates at least once again later this year. There are signs that the Australian economy is still in a sluggish state.
Among the 32 respondents, most expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% when it holds an interest rate meeting on February 4. After the release of better-than-expected employment data in December, most economic analysts postponed the expected timing of a rate cut from February to April.
Of the 32 respondents, 23 predicted that the benchmark interest rate would be 0.5% by June, and three predicted it would be further reduced to 0.25%. The median forecast among 29 respondents is that the benchmark interest rate will remain at 0.5% until the end of 2020, before falling to 0.25% early next year.
Stability camp
Capital Economics: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain stability in February, and is expected to cut interest rates in April and July.
As the unemployment rate has declined, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the February policy meeting, but Australia’s GDP growth The pace will be slower than expected and wage growth will remain weak. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April and July.
Westpac : The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain stability in February and cut interest rates in April and August
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at current levels next week and cut interest rates once in April and August. Next week, the Reserve Bank of Australia will also release its latest quarterly forecasts for economic growth and inflation, and is expected to lower its 2020 economic growth forecast due to the impact of local bushfires.
The forecast for the Australian dollar to fall to around 0.66 against the US dollar in March was revised to 0.68 due to expectations that the RBA's policy easing will be delayed. It is expected that after the interest rate cut in April, the Australian dollar will fall to 0.66 against the US dollar in the second quarter.
ANZ : Lowe's speech will help the market assess the impact of bushfires on policy
Australia's retail sales are expected to fall 0.2% month-on-month in December as evidence suggests consumers are moving ahead of schedule to take advantage of November's Black Friday sales. instead of their usual holiday shopping, which is one reason why retail sales surged in November.
expects the RBA's policy rate to remain unchanged. Despite improvements in domestic and global data, the gap between the unemployment rate and the RBA's target remains wide. Speeches from RBA Chairman Lowe will help markets assess the impact of the bushfires on policy.
National Australia Bank: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates until April
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% in April. It was previously expected to cut interest rates in February. The market has already ruled out the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February. , the current overnight index swap (OIS) market shows that the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates next week is 10%. Before the December Australian employment report released on January 23, this probability is far more than 50%.
JPMorgan Chase : The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to postpone the interest rate cut to May.
JP Morgan Chase: The expected time for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates is postponed from February to May.
Interest rate cut camp
Mitsubishi UFJ: It would be a mistake for the RBA not to cut interest rates
It would be a mistake for the RBA not to cut interest rates and would only delay the inevitable outcome.With the nominal interest rate falling to zero, major central banks around the world continue to review their monetary policy frameworks, but they still fail to achieve their inflation targets. In view of this, the Australian central bank should not hesitate to cut interest rates.
We see many reasons to support the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate cut on February 4. Considering that the Australian dollar has hardly digested the interest rate cut expectations, it has greater room for further downside in the short term.
The Australian dollar will still be difficult to strengthen in the coming week
Kim Mundy, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia , believes that the Australian dollar will be difficult to strengthen against the US dollar in the coming week. Although expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia have weakened, the 2019 low of 0.6671 is still a support level worthy of attention.
