On July 4, South Korean market research organization SNE Research released data that the total global power battery installed capacity from January to May was 157.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 77.3%, and has been growing for 23 consecutive months;

Kirin battery released by CATL . Picture provided by the manufacturer

The power battery market is ushering in new changes.

html On July 4, South Korean market research organization SNE Research released data. From January to May, the total global power battery installed capacity was 157.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 77.3%, which has been growing for 23 consecutive months. Among them, CATL was 53.3GWh, a year-on-year increase. 112%, with a market share of 33.9%; LG New Energy and BYD followed closely. Among the top ten list, Chinese power battery companies accounted for 6 seats.

In June before this, CATL officially released the Kirin battery and revealed that it would be mass-produced and launched in 2023. Its biggest core highlight is that it can achieve a 1,000-kilometer battery life for the entire vehicle. Guangzhou Automobile Group released a new generation of super lithium iron battery technology (SmLFP) based on microcrystalline technology, and said it would be "on the market" as early as next year.

The continued growth in sales of new energy vehicles has led to an increase in demand for power batteries. However, tight supply of upstream raw materials and continued price increases have also become problems. In order to consolidate their competitiveness, the battle for power battery technology routes has once again become the focus of attention.

Bai Yiyang, manager of the Research Department of CMB International Securities, said that each company plans its research and development direction based on its own strength and industry trends. Guangfa Securities analysis believes that at the level of technical routes, structural innovation and material iteration continue to build the competitiveness of Chinese battery companies, and power batteries are ushering in the second round of global restructuring.

"New players" appear frequently on the track, and "three pillars" may become a new situation

Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance show that in the first five months of this year, my country's power battery industry continued to show rapid growth, with a total installed capacity of 83.1GWh. A year-on-year increase of 100.8%. Power battery companies are gradually closing the gap between power battery performance and consumer expectations through innovations in battery form, production technology, system integration and other aspects.

blade battery . Picture provided by the manufacturer

At the end of March 2020, BYD officially released the blade battery. In essence, the blade battery is a type of lithium iron phosphate battery. Through the redesign of the cell shape, layout and arrangement, and the improvement of the production process, the capacity of the blade battery has been greatly increased.

In September 2020, Tesla released the 4680 large cylindrical battery with no electrodes, silicon anodes, and cobalt-free technology. In January 2022, Tesla announced that it had piloted 1 million 4680 units in the California factory. Battery; in addition to Tesla, BAK Battery, Panasonic , Yiwei Lithium Energy , and CATL all have plans in this field.

From the material point of view, the large cylindrical battery still uses the ternary positive electrode, and the battery pack structure adopts the CTC technical solution. Thanks to the structural characteristics of the cylindrical battery cells and battery packs, the cells are arranged in a honeycomb shape, and the existing gaps are guaranteed It provides a large enough heat exchange area between the monomer and the outside, which can effectively disperse risks.

The third-generation CTP (Cell To Pack) technology released by CATL in June 2022 - Kirin battery is still a ternary lithium/lithium iron phosphate battery, which can be understood as an innovation in the field of battery structure. CTP is called a module-less battery pack. Since the module wrapped outside the battery cell is eliminated, the battery pack has more space to arrange the battery cells, and the system energy density can be increased, thus improving the battery's cruising range.

In addition, according to the information disclosed by GAC Group, super lithium iron battery technology is the introduction of second-phase positive electrode microcrystals into lithium iron phosphate batteries, which improves the energy density, low temperature, fast charging, etc. of lithium iron phosphate batteries . Cycle performance.

Qi Haishen, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that the "three-legged confrontation" situation in which Kirin batteries compete with 4680 large cylindrical batteries and BYD's blade batteries is likely to become a new normal phenomenon in the development of the industry. However, Bai Yiyang analyzed that at present, each company is still planning its research and development direction based on its own strength and industry trends; for example, the biggest highlight of large cylinders is the full-lug design, and Kirin batteries drive demand for water-cooled plates, but in essence they are structural innovations, There has been little breakthrough in electrochemical .

Which technical route is the mainstream, and diversification has become a development trend

From the current power battery market, square batteries are still the mainstream, but the popularity of large cylindrical batteries represented by 4680 remains high.Huatai Securities analyzed that large cylindrical batteries are an important technical route for future high-performance batteries. They have better compatibility with high-nickel + silicon-based negative electrodes, higher energy density, low single cell capacity of large cylindrical batteries, and the energy released by thermal runaway of a single battery. Smaller, less likely to cause thermal runaway spread.

As a representative of the new generation of prismatic battery technology, Kirin battery also has its unique advantages. CATL said that under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared to the 4680 system; and through the application of heatless diffusion technology, a multi-level safety protection system has been built to achieve battery The system is not designed for thermal diffusion.

The industry believes that large cylindrical batteries may coexist with square batteries in the future. Under current technical conditions, both batteries have their own applicable scenarios, just like ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries coexist. Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that new energy vehicles are still a new thing and are still in the early stages of development. In the future, the power battery technology route will definitely be a diversified development trend. In addition to structural innovation,

currently has innovations in materials in power battery technology. In addition to all-solid-state batteries that will take several years to achieve commercial mass production, in terms of materials, high-nickel batteries, cobalt-free batteries, nickel-free cobalt-free batteries, jelly batteries, etc. have been developed or released one after another.

However, Wang Zidong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, said that from a market perspective, there is no battery with a better comprehensive evaluation than lithium batteries, so for the time being, lithium batteries are still the "world" ". The industry believes that for now, power batteries will still be dominated by lithium-ion batteries based on ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate in the next 5-10 years.

power battery is facing a qualitative change? It may be about to usher in the second round of restructuring

From the current power battery technology routes are diverse, with different performances; power batteries are divided according to the packaging form, into cylindrical, square, and soft-pack batteries; according to the material system, they are divided into iron phosphate Lithium and ternary; in addition, new batteries such as CTP and CTC have emerged one after another in recent years. Bai Yiyang said that most current technological innovations in power batteries are mainly based on structural innovation. Structural innovation is also developed on the basis of existing electrochemistry and has a marginal improvement in energy density. What impact will the technological change of

power battery have on the industrial chain? Bai Yiyang believes that it will not have a big impact on the industrial chain structure, but it will drive the increase in some upstream raw materials. For example, high nickel will drive the demand for , lithium hydroxide, and . Guojin Securities analysis said that taking CATL’s Kirin battery as an example, structural changes bring material opportunities. For example, the Kirin battery’s heat dissipation area increases, and the demand for insulating paint may increase simultaneously as the electrical contact area increases. , so the demand for insulating paint is also expected to increase in the future.

For breakthroughs in power battery technology, Bai Yiyang believes that it may come from two types of companies. One is giants like Ningde, which have the technical strength to do electrochemical research and development, and the second is small startups that will transform new technologies in the future.

Guangfa Securities analysis said that structural innovation and material iteration continue to build the competitiveness of Chinese battery companies; the first round of battery supply chain restructuring benefited from the rise of soft pack micro and square, with the addition of lithium iron phosphate, high voltage ternary, CTP, etc. CATL is rapidly breaking through the European market, and its market share is expected to continue to hit new highs in the next three years; in the second round of restructuring, new battery structures (such as large cylinders, Kirin batteries) and material systems (ultra-high nickel, lithium iron manganese phosphate) will become Important innovations will enhance the competitiveness of Chinese battery companies in obtaining orders from global car companies.

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