Data map: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (Donald Trump) and (right) and U.S. Vice President-elect Mike Pence (left)
■Trump’s Taiwan policy seems to have consequences Removing the Chief of Staff-designate to show favor to China
(Global Times reported on December 20) More than two weeks after the phone call with Tsai Ing-wen caused an uproar, the Trump team showed signs of retreating from its stance on the Taiwan issue for the first time. . On the 18th local time, Reince Priebus, the White House chief of staff-designate, defended his boss in an interview with Fox News Sunday, saying: "We have not stated "The one-China policy will be re-examined immediately." He also said: "He (Trump) is not the president yet, and he respects the current president." This sentence seemed to be in response to Obama 's year-end press conference two days ago. An in-depth explanation of the One-China policy.
The British "Independent" stated that Priebus' move was aimed at quickly cooling tensions with China. It was also the "first formal measure" taken by Trump's team to improve relations with China before Trump took office. "Priebus's statement should be good news." Wang Jianmin, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from the Global Times on the 19th. However, he also reminded that these corrective clarifications within the Trump team should not be overestimated. It remains to be seen whether there will be a recurrence of Trump's Taiwan policy.
■ The Trump team wants to "repair" relations with China. Tsai Ing-wen has become low-key in public
The White House chief of staff is the highest-level official in the U.S. presidential office. He has great power and is often called " Washington Second The most powerful person." Da Wei, director of the U.S. Director of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told a reporter from the Global Times on the 19th that the position Priebus will assume in the Trump administration is very important, "so these remarks are worthy of attention." But the background of his statement deserves more analysis. One possibility is that there are divisions within the Trump team, with both "rebels" and "establishment" factions. The "rebels" may be inclined to challenge the one-China policy, while the "establishment" wants to handle relations with China steadily. There is also a possibility that Trump himself does not really want to challenge the one-China policy, but is just "asking for a price", pre-empting the issue that China cares about most, "provoking you", and then talking about other issues such as economy and trade. But their team also knows that negotiations are usually easy to negotiate only in a vague space. If they abandon the one-China policy and really get into a stalemate with China, it will be difficult to negotiate again, so they want to go back and "fix" it.
An anonymous Beijing scholar told the Global Times that as a well-known "pro-Taiwan faction", Priebus's stance this time is unusual. Priebus met with Tsai Ing-wen during his two visits to Taiwan in 2015 and 2011. According to Taiwan media reports, Tsai Ing-wen will also meet with Priebus when she "passes through" New York next month to "exchange views on the future of Taiwan-US relations." view". He is also considered to be one of the main promoters of the phone call between Trump and Tsai Ing-wen on December 2. Therefore, this statement is likely to represent a retreat from the Trump team’s Taiwan policy and is also a sign of opposition to Taiwan’s ruling party. Some kind of public reminder.
Zhang Shixian, a professor at National Chengchi University, told Taiwanese media on the 19th that Trump is a standard "amateur politics" and must be controlled by experienced staff. Therefore, Priebus's remarks this time are likely to be a "prediction" that Trump's future talks on cross-strait relations or US-China relations will no longer be "impromptu remarks", but will be prudent and guided by the concerns and guidance of his staff. By then, the entire traditional strategy and national policy of the United States is expected to continue, instead of Trump's "say whatever comes to mind, make mistakes when he says them, and correct mistakes when he makes mistakes" during the campaign and after he was elected. The most important thing for Trump's staff at present is probably to prevent Trump from repeating similar wrong words and deeds.
In the past few days, the relentless pursuit of US public opinion has also made the Trump team feel pressure to express its stance on Taiwan. The American "Philadelphia Inquirer" criticized on the 19th that the arrangement between the United States and China on the Taiwan issue is being thrown out of the window by Trump. Many people believe that Trump's measures to contact Taiwan actually endanger Taiwan's security. The future of Sino-US relations will be highly uncertain.The U.S. website " Atlantic Monthly " stated on the 19th that Trump's statement on the One China issue has "unprecedentedly" provoked the Chinese. Although the possibility of war between the two countries is unlikely, if our era becomes the U.S.-China relationship turning point - bidding farewell to 40 years of relatively successful risk control, "then, Trump's tweets about China will be a sad witness."
Data map: Reince Pry, incoming White House chief of staff Reince Priebus
Priebus's statement undoubtedly gave "Taiwan independence" a sap. Xu Yongming, a "legislator" of the Green Camp "Time Force", shouted on Facebook on the 18th that reviewing Trump's recent speeches to Beijing, it is obvious that Trump "is trying to challenge Washington's outdated one-China policy." It seems that Tsai Ing-wen and her team have been alerted by the excitement of "extremely happy to have a phone call with Trump." On the day of the phone call, Green Camp loudly promoted that this was "the biggest diplomatic breakthrough in the 37 years since Taiwan and the United States broke off diplomatic relations" and repeatedly promoted Tsai Ing-wen. However, in the past two days, people have discovered that when Tsai Ing-wen recently met with "American friends", the main point of her conversation every time was "equal emphasis on Taiwan-US relations, international relations and cross-strait relations." As for the " The saying "pro-American, Japanese, Far Continent" is rarely mentioned anymore.
An anonymous scholar on the island told the Global Times that this is probably because Tsai Ing-wen has been "warned" by the United States. It is even possible that the United States has directly told her that "the United States will not fight for 'Taiwan independence'." This is exactly the same as Trump’s aides’ approach of “putting on the brakes” on Trump’s words and deeds regarding Taiwan.
Wang Jianmin told a reporter from the Global Times that he noticed that Tsai Ing-wen became very low-key after the phone call with Trump, showing her passivity. After Trump proposed a deal with China, she was also very cautious. It shows that she feels the situation is getting more complicated. For the Taiwanese people who hope for stability in the Taiwan Strait, Priebus's statement is really good news, which prevents Taiwan from being used as a bargaining chip by Trump. Da Wei told a reporter from the Global Times that after all, Trump has not yet taken office and he is just playing around with the situation, while Priebus only said that he "will not immediately" revise the one-China policy, so he will continue to observe.
■Trump’s core staff downplays “review of one China” Taiwan scholars: Taiwan can only be a pawn
In an interview on the 18th, Priebus also told Fox News that since 1979, the United States has It only recognizes one China, and Taiwan is part of China. International public opinion generally believes that Priebus's statement is "downplaying" the negative impact of Trump's previous stance on the Taiwan issue. Reuters 19 stated that the above remarks by Trump’s aide “downplayed” expectations that Trump would re-examine the one-China policy pursued by Washington for decades, “although Trump’s remarks a week ago hinted at this tendency. "The British "Independent" said on the 19th that one month before Trump entered the White House, Priebus quickly cooled down the tension in relations with China. Previously, Trump walked an "extremely sensitive tightrope" on a China policy issue.
Priebus’s statement was quickly cited by Taiwanese media. Taiwan's "United Daily News", "China Times", HiNet News, New Headquarters, etc. all used the title "Staff: Trump does not plan to review the one-China policy" and published this news prominently and importantly on websites or newspapers. From his position, he believes that this latest statement is very different from what Trump has said on the Taiwan issue before. Taiwan's "Central News Agency" stated that Priebus "downplayed" the possibility that Trump would review Washington's decades-long one-China policy on the 18th, while Trump "had hinted that he would do so" a week ago. "The prospective White House chief of staff defended his son," Taiwan's Dongsen News said on the 19th, which means that the Trump team has begun to retreat from Trump's outrageous words and deeds.
Taiwan's Sanli TV reported the news on the 19th and introduced the background, saying that Trump's recent tendency to "re-examine" the one-China policy has caused strong dissatisfaction in mainland China. The criticism of Trump's move will undoubtedly increase the troubles in the United States and undermine U.S.-China relations. Adding to the chaos,” the would-be White House chief of staff yesterday tried to downplay Trump’s remarks."
In the past few days, Trump has repeatedly tested the mainland's response to the Taiwan issue, causing emotional fluctuations among the people on the island. "Don't misjudge rashly." United News Network commented on the 19th that Trump's Taiwan policy remains to be seen. "We should clarify this to avoid misjudgment of the situation." A scholar on the island posted a blog warning: In this game of chess between the United States and China, "dodge as far as we can" and "we cannot dominate the overall situation." The chess piece should not be forced onto the table. It is not a chess game, but a chess piece being played, a pawn!"
