Everyone, welcome to Reasonable Talk.
I have been chatting with you about the Japanese economy for several days in the past two days. Indeed, many domestic economic people today can see that the Japanese economy is getting worse and worse. The trade deficit has been running for more than ten consecutive months. , Japanese national debt None of it can be sold, so it can only be eaten by the Bank of Japan. The most critical thing is the huge depreciation of the Japanese yen. 1 RMB is now worth more than 20 Japanese yen. In the past two days, the US dollar against the Japanese yen broke through a high of 1:135. Many people are saying that we will soon break through 1:140 and 1:150 in the future?
In other words, The devaluation of the yen is very, very rapid. This not only has a major impact on the Japanese economy, but also has an impact on the lives of ordinary people. So What impact will the depreciation of the yen have on ordinary people in our country? First of all, we have to remind many people who want to speculate. Many people now have an idea that the Japanese yen has depreciated too fast and the Japanese government may take action. This means that the Japanese yen may have a decline in the future. Callback, return to the state of 1:120, 1:110, for example.
And some people swear that everyone has seen it, right? When the Russo-Ukrainian war started more than three months ago, the ruble and depreciated very quickly overnight. At that time, some smart people did exchange a large amount of rubles. Then within a month the ruble quickly rebounded, and now the ruble has reached its high level in the past three years. Of course, those who exchanged rubles at that time were already making a lot of money, so many people said that the Japanese economy was ranked third in the world. The Japanese economy was still very strong. It should be stronger than Russia. So they naively thought that the Japanese yen would still be there. appreciation. It’s true that many people are thinking about whether I can save some Japanese yen and make a small fortune in the future? After all, it is relatively easy for you to exchange Japanese yen now. You can do it relatively easily at a bank or at some trading venues.
But we really have to remind everyone that Japan’s economy seems to be very strong, but it is really completely different from Russia. We used to say that Russia’s economy is like a fortress. What does that mean? They are absolutely self-sufficient. They have countless and inexhaustible food and energy, as well as nuclear weapons to protect these resources. At any time, if you try hard with Russia, you can't beat it, and if you try soft, you can block it. Can't stop him. Therefore, the value of the Russian ruble has remained unusually strong recently.
Japan is different. Japan is an export-oriented economy. Japan relies on exports, and Japan itself is very scarce in resources, so the Japanese economy is very dependent on foreign countries. Today is a state of anti-globalization. In such a state, the Japanese economy is devastated, and it is difficult for the Japanese yen to rebound as quickly as the ruble. If you exchange some yen for hoarding today, you may regret it in two months because the yen has depreciated again. Moreover, the depreciation of the yen and the recession of the Japanese economy have also shattered the myths of other people.
Do you know that after all, Japan's per capita GDP has been far ahead of ours in the past few decades? At one time we even calculated that Japan's per capita GDP was dozens of times that of our country, even reaching 100 times. At that time, it was true that our university professors could not wash dishes for one hour as long as a Japanese dishwasher worked for one month. So there are indeed many people who are preparing to work in Japan, even if they are the hardest trainees. People think that if I work hard in Japan for a few years, save some money and then return to China, I will immediately become a rich man and buy a house and land.
It may be possible to go back 20 years, but it is really not possible today. On the one hand, the Japanese economy has been stagnant for 30 years. The wages of ordinary people in Japan today are the same as they were 30 years ago. But think about how many times the average income of ordinary people in my country has increased in the past 30 years? On the other hand, the recent sharp depreciation of the yen is definitely not a good thing for those working in Japan. It is equivalent to the great depreciation of the money in their hands after returning to the country. In the past, if you worked in Japan for a month, it was like earning 200,000 yen. According to the exchange rate of last year, it was equivalent to 13,000 to less than 14,000 yuan. Now it's like saying you still earn 200,000 yen, but you can't even get back 10,000 yuan. Even in a few months it will only be worth 9,000 RMB.
Indeed, there are many positions where wages in Japan have lagged behind first-tier cities in my country such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Japan’s per capita GDP this year has been lower than that of South Korea. I’m afraid it will only be a matter of time before we catch up with it in the future. Of course, for the Chinese people, the depreciation of the yen is a big benefit. In the past, before the epidemic, many Chinese people were willing to travel to Japan. They could enjoy the beautiful scenery, eat some delicious food, and buy a lot of imported supplies when they came back. , still tax-free.
Although the epidemic has not completely subsided, we can very much look forward to the second half of this year and the first half of next year after the epidemic has completely dissipated, and our lives can return to normal, and we can also travel to Japan. At that time, you will find that almost all products are discounted by 20%. Even if you will not travel to Japan today, if you have a shopping agent friend around you, you can ask him whether Japanese products are much cheaper. ?
Really, let’s take mobile phones as an example. Some people have calculated that if you go to Japan to buy a iphone13 mobile phone today, you will be able to save nearly 1,500 yuan compared to before the depreciation of the yen. For the Chinese people, the sharp depreciation of the yen will make it cheaper to buy Japanese goods and travel to Japan. But on the other hand, the depreciation of the Japanese yen is definitely not a good thing for the Japanese people. Some people may say that it is not the case. The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar. As a Japanese, earning and spending Japanese yen in Japan has no impact. Yes!
This is not the case. As we have said in the past, Japan is a resource-scarce country. Japan imports a large amount of materials. The most prominent one is the energy problem. Now, on the one hand, international oil prices are soaring, and on the other hand, the yen is depreciating against the US dollar. This is simply a double kill. For Japan, it costs more to import energy. This is why Japan has experienced continuous declines in the past 11 months. Causes of trade deficit.
As for the common people in Japan, they also import a large amount of supplies from overseas. Let’s take beef as an example. We all know that Wagyu beef produced in Japan is very expensive. Some restaurants in our country sell it not by the pound, but by the gram. One gram of beef costs three yuan or four yuan. It’s simply Eating gold. So can Japanese people afford such expensive Japanese Wagyu beef? It’s weird that you can afford it! If most people in Japan want to eat beef, they may go to Yoshinoya to eat beef rice bowl. Yoshinoya beef rice is very cheap, and you can buy a bowl for about a few hundred yen. Why is it cheap? He uses fat beef imported from the United States, and American beef is cheap.
However, now that the yen has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, stores like Yoshinoya cannot survive. The fat cattle I buy from the United States are paid in US dollars. If the yen appreciates, I will have to spend more. But if I import materials, I will spend more. If so, I have to increase the price of the end product, otherwise I won’t be able to make ends meet. Yes, not only beef, but all overseas materials imported by Japan will cost more due to the sharp depreciation of the yen. Ultimately, when it is reflected in the consumption of Japanese people, they will find that the prices of almost all materials are rising. This is for The lives of the Japanese people have been devastated the most. Although the Japanese economy has been stagnant and personal income has not grown in the past 30 years, the Japanese can say that the prices of our commodities have not increased. The prices of a large number of our commodities have remained unchanged for 30 years. But now wages are not rising and prices are skyrocketing. For the Japanese people, they will truly realize the harm caused by the depreciation of the yen!
