According to Taiwanese media reports, the Democratic Progressive Party’s nominee for mayor of Taipei has not yet been announced. Chen Shizhong, the “Minister of Health and Welfare” who originally received cross-faction support and has the highest voice, has recently experienced a decline in the polls. People in the green camp are worried that Chen Shizhong has been in several different positions in recent times. In the polls released by the unit, the support has dropped to only party support, which is even similar to the former "Minister of Transportation" Lin Jialong who actively sought the nomination. The reason is that with the spread of the local epidemic in Taiwan in the middle of this year, the past two years have been The accumulated epidemic prevention dividends are exhausted, which may make Chen "unable to re-elect." Some people in the green camp bluntly said, "Taipei City does not have to rely on Chen Shizhong."
Chen Shizhong (left), Lin Jialong (right)
Taking the poll conducted by "ETtoday" from June 15th to 17th as an example, under the same situation of "three-legged governor", if the KMT candidate Jiang Wanan Running against the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shizhong and Taipei City Vice Mayor Huang Shanshan, Chiang's support is 35.5%, Huang's 28.8%, and Chen's 25.3%. If the DPP sends Lin Jialong to run, Chiang's support is 36.9%, Huang's 27.7% , Lin 23.2%.
It is reported that the Democratic Progressive Party originally estimated that it would advance the nomination of Taipei mayor in early July, and Chen Shizhong was the most vocal and regarded as the key candidate. However, after Chen's popularity declined in the polls, some people expressed their disapproval of Tsai, who is also the party chairman. Convey different opinions in English and inform Chen of the hidden concerns of running for office. On the other hand, Lin Jialong, who has repeatedly expressed that "success does not depend on me, but success must be on me" is still sharpening his skills. Recently, he has successively released policy blueprints, dabbled in water, and visited various constituencies to meet with supporters.
People in the faction who support Chen Shizhong’s candidacy believe that Chen Shizhong is the symbol and indicator of the DPP authorities’ epidemic prevention. If he is not allowed to “play”, it may be interpreted by the outside world as “admitting the failure of epidemic prevention”, which will be detrimental to the overall election situation of the DPP, not to mention In a three-way showdown in the Taipei election, opponent Huang Shanshan may divide Chiang Wanan's votes, and Chen Shizhong is not without a chance of winning.
However, there are still different opinions within the DPP. A green camp person pointed out, "Taipei City does not have to be Chen Shizhong." Recently, Chen Shizhong's support has dropped to only party support. In some comparative polls, Lin Jialong is even more than 10 percentage points ahead of Chen Shizhong, which shows that the two players have similar basic organizational skills.
This person estimated that before the formal nomination, there are still about 5 to 10% of "naughty voters" in Taipei City secretly supporting Huang Shanshan. However, based on the current support level of political parties in Taipei City, it is estimated that after the DPP's formal nomination, the green camp will The candidate's support will jump from 35%, while Huang Shanshan will fall back to 15%. If Chen Shi of the Democratic Progressive Party is elected mayor of Taipei, the winning rate will be on whether he can obtain "40% support", and Chen will This triggered a fierce confrontation between blue and green supporters and deepened the sentiment of "hating the DPP". In addition to making the opposition choose to "abandon Huang and protect Chiang", it may also affect candidates in other counties and cities.
Green camp insiders analyze that in the face of the Taipei mayoral election, Taipei Mayor Ko Wenzhe will play a key role. If Chen Shizhong is recruited to run for Taipei mayor, Ko Wenzhe will probably change his position on the first day of officially nominating Chen Shizhong. As the "fourth candidate", he will beat Chen Shizhong every day; and if Lin Jialong is sent to run, Ke Wenzhe will have the opportunity to become the "biggest winner" after Lin wins the election, harvesting the supporters who originally supported Jiang Wanan. (Editor: Fang Yanyan)
