text/Pan Jin'e
As the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, which will be held in early 2021, Vietnam's high-level political territory is undergoing concerning changes. Since the beginning of 2020, many senior leaders, including the Secretary of the Hanoi Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, the former Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee and the leadership team, have been dismissed, which shows that Vietnam's power and factional struggle is becoming increasingly fierce. Since August, Nguyen Qingyi, the son of former Prime Minister Nguyen Jin-yong, has been asked to make a public review because of the problems in the sale of a certain plot in Kengjiang Province where he served as secretary. At the same time, a group of officials in the province were dismissed, revealing signs of further attack on the southern factions. At the same time, many cadres in the central and other provinces were also punished.
In October 2018, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Tung took the oath to serve as President of the State. He was a key figure in deciding the personnel arrangements of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
At the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam held in January 2016, Nguyen Phu Trong was successfully re-elected as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, thanks to the early revision of the "Party Election Rules". The new election rules require the next Politburo member to be nominated by the current Politburo, otherwise he must "resign" even if he is nominated by other delegations. The launch of this procedure forced the former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who may compete for the position of General Secretary, to withdraw. Nguyen Phu Trong, who has already exceeded her age, was re-elected by launching the "special circumstances" clause in the new rules. After the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Tung formulated a series of cadre training and selection systems, and at the same time, he used the rectification of the party style and anti-corruption as a starting point to make arrangements for the personnel arrangements of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in advance.
Formulate and standardize the selection system for reserve cadres
Since the Seventh Plenary Session of the 12th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam in May 2018, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam has begun to plan the personnel arrangements for cadres and personnel of the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam. The meeting passed the "Resolution on Strengthening the Construction of a Cadre Team at All Levels with Morality and Ability, Especially the Strategic-Level Cadre Team", which clarified the standards for selecting strategic-level cadres, including four types of cadres: (1) Party and government leading cadres, including leaders of the Party Central Committee and state organs, major leading cadres of various ministries and commissions and provinces and cities; (2) Senior commanders of the military and public security system; (3) Science and Technology cadres and experts; (4) State-owned enterprise management personnel, etc. According to the plan, 600 people will be included in the ranks of strategic cadres. Regarding the age structure, the resolution stipulates that over 45 years old accounts for more than 15%, over 50-60 years old accounts for 65-70%, and over 60 years old accounts for 5-10%. The resolution also emphasized that there should be a certain proportion of female cadres and ethnic minority cadres, especially the need to train deputy ministerial-level cadres under the age of 40.
's efforts to train these cadres are also strengthening. In August and December 2019, the Communist Party of Vietnam organized two two and a half months of 13th strategic-level cadre training courses, with 95 and 86 students respectively. They have all been included in the planning list of the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, mainly including the heads and secretaries of various central ministries and commissions, provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government). The training course covers six major themes: the Party’s ideological and theoretical foundation, economy, social and cultural, party building and politics, national defense and security and diplomacy, leadership and management capabilities. According to past practice, each Central Executive Committee consists of 180 Central Committee members and 20 alternate members. Obviously, there are 181 trainees in the two training classes, and some of them will remain in office for 16 members of the 12th Central Political Bureau, and the members of the 13th Central Committee are basically covered.
Formulate the job standards and assessment system for leading cadres
In August 2017, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam promulgated regulations No. 89 and 90, which respectively stipulated the specific job standards and assessment standards for the main leaders of central and state organs and local leaders at all levels.On January 2, 2020, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam promulgated the "Central Position Standards and Assessment Indicators System for Management of the Central Executive Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat" No. 214, which further clarified the general standards of central cadres and the standards of each leadership position, namely, the general job standards of Central Committee members, members of the Politburo, and secretaries, as well as the specific standards of all leadership positions from the General Secretary of the Party, Standing Secretary of the Secretariat, Director and Deputy Director of the Central Inspection Commission, President and Vice Chairman of the State, President and Vice Chairman of the Congress, Prime Minister and Vice Premier, Central and Vice Premier of the Motherland Front, as well as ministers and deputy ministers of various ministries and commissions, secretaries and deputy secretaries of provinces and municipalities, chairmen and vice chairman of the People's Committee, chairman and vice chairman of the parliament, and vice chairman of the parliament. Currently, there are about 2,000 central-level cadres. The general job standards for central-level cadres include five:
In terms of political and ideological aspects, they are absolutely loyal to the interests of the Party, the country, the nation and the people, adhere to Marxism-Leninism and Ho Chi Minh ideology, adhere to the goals of national independence and socialism, and the Party’s innovative line, etc.
Hanoi streets during the epidemic.
As a moral role model, he is thrifty and honest, selfless, has no power ambition, and has become a model and the core of unity in all aspects.
In terms of cultural level, he has a university degree or above, a bachelor's degree or senior level of political theory, a high-level senior commissioner qualification or equivalent diploma in the national management position, and has foreign language and computer skills that are consistent with the position.
in terms of ability and reputation, has innovative thinking and strategic vision, scientific working methods, is creative, dare to think and do, and is responsible, plays a cohesive and core role in the political system, and has gained the high trust of cadres, party members and the people.
is healthy in terms of health, age and resume, and is competent in work, ensuring that the age of running for election and being elected complies with the Party's regulations, and has work experience in holding major leadership positions in direct subordinate units.
No. 214 also lists the job standards for members of the Central Committee and members of the Politburo. Among them, the job standards for Central Committee members have been added to the general standards for Central Committee cadres, while the standards for Politburo members have been further improved on the standards for Central Committee members. For example, members of the Politburo and secretary of the Secretariat must also meet the following standards: they can truly play the exemplary leading role of the Party Central Committee in terms of political skills, moral qualities, wisdom and fighting will, leadership and management ability, and organizational discipline, and are not interfered with and influenced by external forces and interest groups; they have a deep and extensive understanding of the national, regional and world situations, are politically sensitive, are sensitive to economic work, and are familiar with social situations; they have a high sense of responsibility in formulating lines and development policies, are able to raise practical issues, and contribute to the decision-making of the Party Central Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat; serve as a member of the Central Committee for one full term or more; they have served as provincial and ministerial heads and have achieved good assessments or above; members of the Politburo and secretary of the Secretariat from the army must preside over the work of the military region.
No. 214 also lists the assessment standards for central-level cadres in detail, requiring that the assessment results of candidates in all positions must be above good.
clearly stipulates the age of local leading cadres at all levels
The 35th-CT/TW instruction issued by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on May 30, 2019 has made clear provisions on the age of candidates for posts such as members of the provincial, county, armed forces and state-owned enterprises from 2020 to 2025. Among them, for those who were elected as members of the provincial party committee for the first time: a male was born after September 1965, a female was born after September 1970; a second time: a male was born after March 1963, and a female was born after March 1968. For candidates for the leadership of the People's Committee and the People's Congress for term of office from 2021 to 2026: males were born after September 1963 and females were born after September 1968. The age of candidates for Central Committee members shall be submitted to the Central Executive Committee for decision after research by the Politburo. The county-level party committee member is three years older than the provincial level.For armed forces cadres: the age of the Party Committee members shall be implemented in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Vietnam People's Army Officer Law" and the "Vietnam People's Public Security Officer Law"; those participating in the local party committee shall abide by the general provisions of the Politburo on the age of party committee members at all levels, and those who are re-election must exceed half a term of office (i.e. at least 30 months). The chairman of the state-owned enterprise also serves as the party secretary and reporter, more than one year away from his retirement age.
Since the first time entering 2021-2026, central-level cadres will be selected from the above-mentioned local cadres at all levels. From this, it can be seen that the maximum age of those who are elected as members of the Central Committee for the first time must be born after March 1965, that is, under 55 years old; those who are re-elected must be born after September 1963, that is, under 57 years old. It can be seen from this that the selection age of leaders of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam follows the so-called "seven or eight times" (you cannot be elected if you are over 58 years old).
Use anti-corruption as a starting point to adjust the power structure
0Since the 12th National Congress, the Communist Party of Vietnam has continuously deepened its crackdown and punishment for corruption, running for officials, and has introduced a series of anti-corruption systems and rules, including the revision of the Anti-Corruption Law, and brought down a group of senior officials, and some were sentenced to prison. In addition to the punishment of several important officials mentioned above, in early 2018, former member of the Politburo and Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee Ding Luosheng was sentenced to 30 years in prison, and a number of interest groups were gradually purged out of politics. According to statistics, by the end of 2019, more than 90 central-level cadres were punished, including two members of the Politburo, 19 members of the Central Committee or former members of the Central Committee, 22 general-level military (police) officers of the military and public security system, as well as hundreds of secretaries and deputy secretaries of the provincial (municipal) committees, party groups, deputy secretaries and members of various central ministries and commissions, party committee secretaries, deputy secretaries and chairman of state-owned economic groups, etc.
"Four Horses" surfaced
After layer-by-layer layout and strict rules were formulated, the personnel situation of the top leaders of the 13th Vietnamese Communist Party has become clearer.
According to the provisions of No. 214, the position standards of the General Secretary of the Party are: in addition to meeting the general conditions of members of the Central Political Bureau, the following conditions must be met: enjoy a lofty prestige in the minds of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the whole Party and the people of the whole country; as the center, unite and unite the entire political system and the comprehensive strength of the whole party and the people of the whole country, and give full play to the power of the times, and successfully complete the two strategic goals and tasks of building the motherland and defending the motherland, and realizing the "rich people, strong country, democracy, fairness, and civilization"; it is a model of the morality and wisdom of the whole party. At the same time, the General Secretary must have a high level of political theory, have comprehensive, extensive and profound knowledge in politics, economy, culture, society, national defense, security, diplomacy, party building and state management, have keen ideological and political skills, and have the ability to study, discover, raise and solve problems; be able to remain sober and rational in the face of complex and difficult problems that concern the destiny of the Party, the country and the nation; be able to lead and preside over the work of the Central Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat, and be able to lead the construction of the strategic-level cadre team, especially reserve cadres and leading cadres in important positions. In addition, you must serve as the secretary of the provincial and municipal party committee or the minister of the central ministries and commissions, and have a good assessment or above; serve as a member of the Politburo for more than one full term. Special circumstances shall be decided by the Central Committee.
According to the above conditions, the next General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam can only be produced from the existing members of the 12th Politburo. Among the 16 current members of the 12th Politburo, only General Secretary Nguyen Phu Tung and Executive Secretary Chen Guowang meet one of the conditions, namely, "the ability to lead and preside over the work of the Central Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat, and the ability to lead the construction of the strategic-level cadre team, especially reserve cadres and leading cadres in important positions." Since the Party Constitution clearly stipulates that the term of office of the General Secretary of the Party cannot exceed two terms, and this Party Congress has no plan to amend the Party Constitution, it can be judged that Nguyen Phu Tung cannot be re-elected as General Secretary. As the executive secretary of the Secretariat, Chen Guowang has actually led the work of the Secretariat, and has organized and trained two sessions of strategic cadres in four classes in the past two years, and trained about 181 candidates for the 13th Central Committee, which is a condition that other members of the Politburo do not have.Although Chen Guowang has exceeded the age limit of 65 (born in 1953), he can follow the practice of Nguyen Phu Tung at the 12th National Congress, that is, he is elected by launching the "special situation" clause.
In addition, since Nguyen Phu Trong's call for continued office is very high, it is also possible to continue to retain the position of President by launching the "special situation" clause. Wang Tinghui, who was transferred from the position of Minister of the Central Economic Affairs Department to Secretary of the Hanoi Municipal Party Committee at the beginning of the year, met the various job requirements of the government prime minister, and was therefore the most suitable candidate for the next prime minister. Zhang Shimei (female), the current deputy director of the Standing Committee of the Congress, may be elected as president of Congress to meet the "four horses" of the central power core, and there is a minority or female practice in the personnel. In addition, it is expected that the 13th Politburo of the Communist Party of Vietnam will continue to retain the scale of 17 to 19 people, which is in line with the development trend of the relatively dispersed power structure of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the practice of relatively balanced north and south.
Although this prediction is drawn based on the above rules and conventions, there are still variables in the candidates for the "Four Horses". Once Nguyen Phu Trong is no longer re-elected as president of the country, then Minister of Public Security Su Lin, Minister of Foreign Affairs Fan Ping Ming, Minister of Central Organization Department Fan Ming Zheng and others are all possible candidates for this position. There are about four months left before the 13th National Congress is held in 2021, and the forces of various factions are still in the final battle. Therefore, the final result is not certain until the last meeting before the conference was held at the beginning of next year. But overall, after adjustments since the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong has basically controlled the political situation and the power of the southern faction was weakened.
(The author is a doctoral supervisor at the University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a researcher at the Institute of Marxism of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
This article was published in the 19th issue of "World Knowledge" 2020
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