Due to the cross-month period, corporate funds are tight and they mainly withdraw funds, so the demand for bargain hunting is not good; while suppliers are still relatively low in inventory, so they have a strong price support sentiment;

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Yangtze River spot
1#Copper price	61750 yuan/ton	1410 yuan/ton
oxygen-free copper wire (hard)	62910 yuan/ton	drop1410 yuan/ton
enameled wire price	66950 yuan/ton	1410 yuan/ton
A00 aluminum price	19180 yuan/ton	rose 120 yuan/ton
1 Guangdong spot
1#Copper price	61370 yuan/ton	down1300 yuan/ton
A00 aluminum price	19160 yuan/ton	rose 140 yuan/ton
futures
Shanghai Copper 2207	61540 yuan/ton	Fall 1100 yuan/ton
Shanghai Copper 2208	61400 yuan/ton	H9H9H9H9H9H9 Fall 1190 yuan /ton
Shanghai Aluminum 2207	19205 yuan/ton	Raise 185 yuan/ton
Shanghai Aluminum 2208	9155 yuan/ton	ML13 yuan/ton
outer disk inventory
htmm l0 Copper stocks	126850t	+2575t
aluminum stock	369675t	-3600t
last period stock
copper stock	66661 tons	+9508 tons 3
aluminum stock	210957t	-28796t

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Today’s copper market analysis

electrolytic copper : Copper prices mainly fell last week, and the downward trend was mainly reflected on last Friday; due to the cross-month, corporate funds are tight and they mainly withdraw funds, so the demand for bargain hunting is not good; while suppliers are still relatively low because their inventories are still relatively low, so they are strong The price sentiment is strong; copper prices once again showed a sharp decline last Friday, and the market atmosphere became more bearish, so the overall transaction performance was sluggish.Copper inventories continue to show a growth trend, but they are still at low levels year-on-year. Last week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 113,600 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons month-on-month. However, the inventory in the bonded areas has dropped significantly, with the cumulative copper spot inventories in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong reaching 216,000 tons. tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39,000 tons. On the consumer side, transactions in the domestic fine copper rod market were poor last week, and the price difference of fine scrap copper rods remained low. There is more market demand for fine copper rods, but there was no demand in the market at the end of the month last week, so the consumption of orders for copper rods was not ideal. ; Entering last Friday, most companies in the market began to resume normal production and sales after July. However, the sharp drop in copper prices once again revived bearish sentiment, so transactions did not improve on the first trading day of July; the recent domestic electrolytic copper supply pressure has As a result, the spot premium of electrolytic copper may rebound this week, but copper prices are still weak in the short term. Last week, the overall transaction volume of Yingtan electrolytic copper market was relatively average. The main reason is that the week coincides with a cross-month period, and most of the market has issued monthly tickets, and there is a demand for payment, so the market funds are tight during the week. At the same time, due to the fluctuation of copper prices in the range, downstream companies have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market is not very enthusiastic about receiving goods. Last Friday was the first trading day in July. The financial situation of enterprises has eased. In addition, monthly tickets have been issued, which has increased the liquidity of the spot market. At the same time, copper prices have fallen sharply, and downstream enterprises' bargain hunting demand has rebounded. Therefore, there are transactions. Although the overall order performance has improved, the overall order performance is weaker than the normal level in previous years, and the market's bearish sentiment still exists.

Today’s aluminum market analysis

1. Overnight aluminum market: The main overnight Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 18,980 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, or 0.08%. LME aluminum 3M closed at US$2,468.5/ton, up US$24.5/ton, or 1.00%.

2. Macro news:

1. The Federal Reserve 7 interest rate hike 75 basis point is almost certain: the dovish senior official San Francisco Fed Chairman has joined the support ranks.

2. Last Friday, data released by the ISM showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing industry hit a two-year low in June due to weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The ISM data provided further evidence that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.

3. The final value of the UK manufacturing PMI in June was 52.8, lower than the expected value of 53.4.

3. Industry tracking: According to Mysteel’s report on July 1, Guangxi Longlin Baikuang Aluminum Co., Ltd. currently has a built production capacity of 200,000 tons and an operating production capacity of 200,000 tons, and has successfully resumed production and reached capacity. According to Mysteel, the 800,000-ton electrolytic aluminum workshop flue gas desulfurization project invested by Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum and Electricity Co., Ltd. at a cost of 140 million yuan has been put into operation.

4. Spot market: Wuxi market transaction price is 19,050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton. At the end of the mid-year settlement, holders are willing to raise the price, and the discount has narrowed slightly. However, the market has a strong bearish sentiment, and a small amount is on demand. For procurement, the overall trading volume was mediocre; the transaction price of in the Foshan market was 19,020 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton. The month change combined with the decline in futures, the market spot gradually turned to a premium, and the overall transaction improved slightly.

5. Summary of key points: macro-level, the US PCE price index increased by 6.3% year-on-year in May, expected to be 6.4%, core PCE price index increased by 4.7% year-on-year, expected to be 4.8%, further exacerbating market concerns about the global economic recession. Aluminum prices at home and abroad are under pressure. Fundamentals, on the supply side, currently stimulated by government support and declining electricity prices in some areas, the new production work of aluminum plants will continue, and output will continue to be released rapidly. On the demand side, as the consumption off-season for traditional industries is approaching, new orders for building profiles have dropped significantly. Although industrial profiles such as solar photovoltaic frames can contribute to increased consumption, it is difficult to make up for the reduction in building profiles. Furthermore, factors such as losses in aluminum exports, seasonal weakening of export orders, and expectations of weakening overseas macro demand will have an adverse impact on aluminum exports in the future, and there is a greater risk of a decline in aluminum exports.Overall, the current macroeconomic atmosphere is still weak, and the pattern of strong supply and weakening demand still needs to be repaired. Aluminum prices have been strongly suppressed, but low inventory and costs still provide certain support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue Maintain the weak shock pattern.

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Copyright statement: The copyright of this information belongs to China Cable Network and is protected by law. If you reprint, excerpt or otherwise use the text or opinions of this report, please indicate "Source: China Cable Network".

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Source | Mysteel, Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network

Editor | Li Xue, Sun Holland

Review | In Kai

Submission email | [email protected]

Copper inventories continue to show a growth trend, but they are still at low levels year-on-year. Last week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 113,600 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons month-on-month. However, the inventory in the bonded areas has dropped significantly, with the cumulative copper spot inventories in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong reaching 216,000 tons. tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39,000 tons. On the consumer side, transactions in the domestic fine copper rod market were poor last week, and the price difference of fine scrap copper rods remained low. There is more market demand for fine copper rods, but there was no demand in the market at the end of the month last week, so the consumption of orders for copper rods was not ideal. ; Entering last Friday, most companies in the market began to resume normal production and sales after July. However, the sharp drop in copper prices once again revived bearish sentiment, so transactions did not improve on the first trading day of July; the recent domestic electrolytic copper supply pressure has As a result, the spot premium of electrolytic copper may rebound this week, but copper prices are still weak in the short term. Last week, the overall transaction volume of Yingtan electrolytic copper market was relatively average. The main reason is that the week coincides with a cross-month period, and most of the market has issued monthly tickets, and there is a demand for payment, so the market funds are tight during the week. At the same time, due to the fluctuation of copper prices in the range, downstream companies have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market is not very enthusiastic about receiving goods. Last Friday was the first trading day in July. The financial situation of enterprises has eased. In addition, monthly tickets have been issued, which has increased the liquidity of the spot market. At the same time, copper prices have fallen sharply, and downstream enterprises' bargain hunting demand has rebounded. Therefore, there are transactions. Although the overall order performance has improved, the overall order performance is weaker than the normal level in previous years, and the market's bearish sentiment still exists.

Today’s aluminum market analysis

1. Overnight aluminum market: The main overnight Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 18,980 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, or 0.08%. LME aluminum 3M closed at US$2,468.5/ton, up US$24.5/ton, or 1.00%.

2. Macro news:

1. The Federal Reserve 7 interest rate hike 75 basis point is almost certain: the dovish senior official San Francisco Fed Chairman has joined the support ranks.

2. Last Friday, data released by the ISM showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing industry hit a two-year low in June due to weak new orders and contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. The ISM data provided further evidence that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.

3. The final value of the UK manufacturing PMI in June was 52.8, lower than the expected value of 53.4.

3. Industry tracking: According to Mysteel’s report on July 1, Guangxi Longlin Baikuang Aluminum Co., Ltd. currently has a built production capacity of 200,000 tons and an operating production capacity of 200,000 tons, and has successfully resumed production and reached capacity. According to Mysteel, the 800,000-ton electrolytic aluminum workshop flue gas desulfurization project invested by Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum and Electricity Co., Ltd. at a cost of 140 million yuan has been put into operation.

4. Spot market: Wuxi market transaction price is 19,050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton. At the end of the mid-year settlement, holders are willing to raise the price, and the discount has narrowed slightly. However, the market has a strong bearish sentiment, and a small amount is on demand. For procurement, the overall trading volume was mediocre; the transaction price of in the Foshan market was 19,020 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton. The month change combined with the decline in futures, the market spot gradually turned to a premium, and the overall transaction improved slightly.

5. Summary of key points: macro-level, the US PCE price index increased by 6.3% year-on-year in May, expected to be 6.4%, core PCE price index increased by 4.7% year-on-year, expected to be 4.8%, further exacerbating market concerns about the global economic recession. Aluminum prices at home and abroad are under pressure. Fundamentals, on the supply side, currently stimulated by government support and declining electricity prices in some areas, the new production work of aluminum plants will continue, and output will continue to be released rapidly. On the demand side, as the consumption off-season for traditional industries is approaching, new orders for building profiles have dropped significantly. Although industrial profiles such as solar photovoltaic frames can contribute to increased consumption, it is difficult to make up for the reduction in building profiles. Furthermore, factors such as losses in aluminum exports, seasonal weakening of export orders, and expectations of weakening overseas macro demand will have an adverse impact on aluminum exports in the future, and there is a greater risk of a decline in aluminum exports.Overall, the current macroeconomic atmosphere is still weak, and the pattern of strong supply and weakening demand still needs to be repaired. Aluminum prices have been strongly suppressed, but low inventory and costs still provide certain support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue Maintain the weak shock pattern.

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Copyright statement: The copyright of this information belongs to China Cable Network and is protected by law. If you reprint, excerpt or otherwise use the text or opinions of this report, please indicate "Source: China Cable Network".

---

Source | Mysteel, Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network

Editor | Li Xue, Sun Holland

Review | In Kai

Submission email | [email protected]