Economic Herald reporter Liu Yong
On June 28, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened as scheduled. At 24:00 that day, the prices of gasoline and diesel dropped by 320 yuan and 310 yuan per ton respectively. Despite the price reduction, many car owners are worried that gas prices will soon exceed the 10 yuan mark.
In this regard, industry insiders interviewed by Economic Herald reporter said that the possibility of 92-proof gasoline breaking 10 yuan is not very high, and the National Development and Reform Commission also made it clear a few days ago that once the international oil price exceeds 130 US dollars / barrel, domestic refined oil products Prices will not be raised in the short term (no more than two months). If the international oil price exceeds the regulatory upper limit of US$130 per barrel for more than two months in total, relevant policy measures will be clarified in advance.
Domestic oil prices will not rise indefinitely with the fluctuation of international oil prices
"Now 92-proof gasoline is more than 9 yuan, and it may soon break 10 yuan." On July 2, private car owner Song Bo said, "It turned out to be full. A tank of gas costs more than 300 yuan at most, and now it’s almost 500 yuan.”
Xu Jianqiang, a truck driver who works outside the East Asia Home Plaza, is deeply touched by the price changes. "The cost of refueling is getting higher and higher now." Xu Jianqiang told the Economic Herald reporter while looking through his small notebook. At the end of last year, he added 40 liters of No. 92 gasoline, which cost 268 yuan, equivalent to 6.72 yuan/liter (per liter). After a discount of 0.4 yuan); at the end of January this year, I added 42 liters, which cost 300 yuan, equivalent to 7.15 yuan/liter (after a discount of 0.5 yuan per liter); at the beginning of March, I added 200 yuan of gasoline, a total of 26.21 liters, equivalent to 7.63 yuan/liter (After a discount of 0.4 yuan per liter), but in early May, he still added 200 yuan of gasoline, totaling 24.87 liters, equivalent to 8.04 yuan/liter (after a discount of 0.4 yuan per liter). A few days ago, I added another 200 yuan of gasoline, totaling 23.67 liters, equivalent to 8.45 yuan/liter (after discounting 0.6 yuan per liter).
"There is still a discount. If there is no discount, the same amount of money will cost less and less." Xu Jianqiang said, "For the same 40 liters of No. 92 gasoline, it cost 284.8 yuan at the end of last year (according to the maximum retail price of 6.42 yuan at the time) /L), now it will cost 362 yuan (calculated based on the maximum retail price of 9.05 yuan/L on the 25th), which is about 78 yuan more,” Xu Jianqiang said, “I am just worried that the oil price will continue to rise and exceed 10 yuan. The crisis is really around the corner.”
According to industry insiders, domestic oil prices may continue to rise in the future. Lin Boqiang, president of the China Energy Policy Research Institute, said that domestic refined oil prices are linked to international crude oil prices. In the short term, there is a high probability that the price of refined oil will rise.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the price of Brent crude oil will reach US$140/barrel in the third quarter of this year and US$130/barrel in the fourth quarter, which is further raised from the previous expectation of US$125/barrel, and is expected to be US$130 in the first quarter of next year. /barrel, while the previous forecast for the first quarter of next year was only US$115/barrel.
Also bullish is Morgan Stanley . The agency predicts that the basic expected price of Brent crude oil in the third quarter of this year is US$130/barrel, and the bullish expected price is US$150/barrel.
"Our country is a major oil consumer, and about 70% of its oil depends on imports. According to the existing domestic oil price pricing rules, there is a linkage mechanism between domestic oil prices and international oil prices, but domestic oil prices will not rise indefinitely with the fluctuations of international oil prices. If the international oil price reaches the upper limit of the price adjustment mechanism of US$130 per barrel, the price of domestic refined oil will exceed 10 yuan per liter." Lin Boqiang said.
Zhou Feng, the person in charge of a local refining company, also holds the same opinion. In his opinion, if the price of domestic refined oil exceeds 10 yuan, it may be difficult in the short term. Since the tight supply situation in the global crude oil market is difficult to change in the short term, a common view in the industry is that the outlook for oil prices is still biased towards higher levels, and the possibility of short-term oil prices exceeding historical highs cannot be ruled out. “Previously, the international oil price exceeded 130 US dollars/barrel, but the price in Shandong was less than 10 yuan/liter.” Zhou Feng explained, “Although it is less than 10 yuan, the era of high oil prices will continue for some time."
You cannot simply compare crude oil and gasoline prices
In interviews with Economic Herald reporters, both Xu Jianqiang and Song Bo mentioned a joke, that is, "Is oil more expensive or barrels more expensive?" "From the text, it seems that there is nothing wrong. But something feels wrong, and I don’t know what is wrong. Song Bo said.
It is understood that on March 20, 2008, the international crude oil price was 147 US dollars per barrel, and the domestic oil price was 6.3 yuan/liter; but now the international oil price is around 110 US dollars/barrel, and the domestic oil price is 9.05 yuan/liter. Some people joked : “Maybe the bucket is expensive. "The ridicule of "barrels are more expensive" reflects that the public still has a vague understanding of the pricing mechanism of refined oil.
In this regard, Zhou Feng said that the current international oil price is indeed lower than before 2008, and the price of gasoline is indeed higher than in 2008. Years ago, similar views are eye-catching, but in fact, the two are not directly comparable. In addition to oil product upgrades, the pricing mechanisms of refined oil at the two time nodes are different. refined oil consumption tax has also experienced multiple rounds of increases. . And as an important material to ensure national energy security, the price setting of refined oil is not as simple as imagined.
Zhou Feng told the Economic Herald reporter that the complexity of the oil market determines that it is impossible to simply compare the prices of crude oil and gasoline. Conclusions can be drawn based on the relationship, especially in some special cases. “Consumers should not be misled by the conclusions drawn from this simple comparison. "
According to him, in 2008, although the international oil price reached a maximum of 147 US dollars per barrel, domestic refined oil did not follow suit. The price of 6.3 yuan per liter was consistent with the international oil price at that time (about 100 US dollars per barrel). “Oil prices inverted in 2008, with crude oil prices higher than refined oil prices. In order to prevent high oil prices from being passed on to various industries and causing rising prices across the country, the state and the government subsidized high oil prices by 165.2 billion yuan. Oil that originally costs more than 10 yuan sells for 6.3 yuan, and each liter of oil subsidizes car owners by 4-5 yuan. "
" "In 2008, domestic refined oil prices were not closely related to international oil prices. Now, the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism is based on a cycle of 10 working days, which is more closely linked with international crude oil. " Zhou Feng explained, "If the state had not allowed oil companies to bear losses (costs) on the premise of stabilizing the market and ensuring people's livelihood, domestic oil prices may have reached 10 yuan/liter. "
" "In 2008, it was the "National Three" standard, and now it is basically the "National Five" or even "National Six" standard. As oil products are upgraded, prices will naturally rise. "Li Hongmei, an Internet oil product analyst, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Herald that when automobile gasoline is upgraded from "National III" to "National IV", the standard price increase is 300 yuan per ton; when it is upgraded from "National IV" to "National V", the price will increase from There will be a price increase when upgrading from "National Five" to "National Six". "To put it simply, when upgrading from 'National Three' to 'National Six', the cost per ton will increase by nearly a thousand yuan. "
" "In addition, the most important thing is the reform of fuel consumption tax . "Zhou Feng said, "Since 2009, my country has implemented refined oil tax and fee reform, canceling 6 charges such as highway maintenance fees, and other refined oil consumption tax unit taxes have increased accordingly. The gasoline consumption tax was 0.2 yuan/liter in 2008 and is currently 1.52 yuan/liter. Taking into account the resulting increase in taxes and fees such as urban construction and education surcharges, it is equivalent to an increase in consumption tax affecting the price of gasoline by about 1.7 yuan/liter. "
" "The cost of refined oil includes three links, upstream production or import, refining and sales. In addition to the reduction in crude oil costs, the costs of other production and sales links have not decreased, and have even increased. For example, rising labor costs will cause oil prices to rise to a certain extent. " Zhou Feng explained.
