The Paper reporter Sun Mingwei
html On June 15, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed up in shock, with the Shanghai Composite Index once again reaching 3,300 points.As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to 3305.41 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.95% to 12137.76 points; the GEM Index rose 1.05% to 2575.09 points.
Since April 27, A shares have ignored the turmoil in the external market and gone out of a wave of independent market conditions. However, it is worth noting that on June 15, all major indexes had a plunge before the market closed, and the market showed concerns about the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.
China Asset Management believes that the current market is in a favorable environment for economic recovery after the epidemic. With sufficient liquidity, risk appetite continues to recover from historical lows. Although the short-term overseas macro factors are still relatively unfavorable, the core factors of the A-share trend are still internal. As July approaches, the market will shift from the general rise brought by the emotional recovery to the structural differentiation driven by the interim report results. Operation tactics should be Must be patient.
A shares have emerged from an independent market
Recently, European and American stock markets have suffered a series of heavy losses, especially the Nasdaq index and S&P 500 index once fell into technical bear market .
html On June 10, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year in May, which was higher than market expectations of 8.3%. The year-on-year increase reached 40% since December 1981. New year high. This data greatly exceeded market expectations, which triggered a plunge in US stocks .Looking back at A-shares, after the market saw a periodic bottom on April 27, the market trend reversed. As of the close of trading on June 15, the three major A-share indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index, and the ChiNext Index, saw increases. have reached 14.51%, 18.92% and 19.74% respectively.
Data source: WIND
"Because the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States are out of sync, there is a seesaw effect in the capital market and global capital flows." said Zhao Yurui, chief investment adviser of Guangfa Securities .
In Zhao Yurui’s view, the first reason why A-shares have gone out of independent market is the “decoupling” of the economic environment, policies, and capital markets between China and the United States; second, the implementation of domestic policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption has also boosted investment. The person's confidence shows the characteristics of "I" being the main one.
"We can clearly feel that most investors have gradually moved away from the previous thinking of the crash and begun to enter the shock thinking after the crash; of course, we still have to emphasize that after all, there are still many uncontrollable factors both internal and external. Now It is too early to conclude that the market has reversed, we need to wait for clearer signals from the right, and it is not yet time to be fully radical," Zhao Yurui further said.
Chief Economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund Yang Delong also believes that the recent A-share market has been able to rise against the trend, mainly for three reasons.
First, the Chinese and American financial cycles are misaligned and monetary policies have diverged, which has given a strong impetus to the trend of the A-share market. Inflation in the United States has reached a 40-year high. In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has released a large amount of water, which has spawned asset bubbles. Now it is When paying the bill, the Fed had to quickly switch from easing to tightening, which dealt a heavy blow to U.S. economic growth and the stock market. However, my country's inflation level is not high, and stable growth is an important policy goal. China's monetary policy maintains a certain degree of independence and adopts a relatively loose policy focused on China. This is a monetary environment that supports the A-share market to move out of an independent market.
Second, the valuation of A-shares is at a historically low level, and it is also at a low level globally. The price-to-earnings ratio of Shanghai Composite Index is less than 13 times, and the price-to-earnings ratio of CSI 300 is less than 12 times, which is far lower than Dow Jones Industrial Index and even lower than the Nasdaq Index. Therefore, the A-share market has become a valuation depression in the global capital market. , attracting foreign investment inflows.
Third, A-shares have already fallen in advance. Affected by internal and external negative factors, the A-share market fell sharply in the first four months. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell sharply. It fell 21% this year. The GEM index plunged 36%, releasing risks in advance.
China Asset Management believes that the current market is in a favorable environment for post-epidemic economic recovery. With ample liquidity, risk appetite continues to recover from historical lows.Although short-term overseas macro factors are still relatively unfavorable, record high inflation has increased market expectations for subsequent tightening by the Federal Reserve, and there may be continued disturbances amid wide fluctuations in external stock markets. However, the core element of the A-share trend is still internal. As July approaches, the market will shift from a general rise brought about by emotional recovery to a structural differentiation driven by interim results. It is advisable to have a certain amount of patience in operational tactics.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 375 basis points
At 2 a.m. on June 16, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the policy interest rate, the federal funds rate, by 75 basis points, from 0.75% to 1% to 1.5% to 1.75%. This is the first time in 27 years that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 375 basis points.
At the subsequent regular press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the inflation situation has prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in June. This is not expected to become the norm, and denied that it will raise interest rates multiple times in a row.
As of the close, the Dow Jones Index rose 1.00% to 30668.53 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.50% to 11099.16 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46% to 3789.91 points.
CICC pointed out that the source of renewed turmoil in the global market lies in the significantly higher-than-expected May inflation data, which not only changed the original expected downward path but also basically strengthened the main sub-sectors. This is in the already insufficient room for maneuver. , prompting the Fed to possibly need to guide the market to "believe" in a steeper path of interest rate hikes in order to achieve its policy goal of controlling inflation.
UBS Wealth Management’s Investment Chief Office (CIO) said that the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield moving towards 3.5% indicates that the market is increasing concerns that the Federal Reserve may fall further behind the yield curve. This, in turn, would give the Fed less room to “declare victory” and ease off rate hikes.
"Therefore, we believe that the risk of economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve has increased, and the possibility of a recession in the next six months has also increased. Under this circumstance, the Federal Reserve policy meeting that ended in the early morning of Thursday (16th) Beijing time will Providing the latest economic forecast , this is one of the most important meetings in recent years and is crucial for the outlook for financial markets. Investors may need to adjust their assumptions in light of the Fed's interest rate vote, and market volatility is likely to be high in the coming days. "In the face of increased market volatility, investors can not only prepare for liquidity, but also consider continuing to invest in value strategies, building defensive layouts, and achieving diversification through alternative investments ." UBS Wealth Management. The Office of the Chief Investment Officer stated.
Boshi Fund pointed out that looking forward, inflation expectations have risen again. U.S. inflation is expected to remain high in the third quarter and fall back in the fourth quarter, but the overall decline may be limited. It is becoming increasingly unrealistic for the Fed to seek a balance between growth and inflation through mild tightening, and asset prices will fluctuate more dramatically in the short term.
Boshi Fund said that the performance of U.S. stocks in the first quarter, especially the guidance of some leading retail and technology companies, was lower than expected, which has caused the market to worry about the subsequent slowdown in growth, and the continuous tightening of financial conditions and high inflation will also increase the pressure on growth. .
Responsible editor: Dongdong Picture editor: Zhang Tongze
Proofreading: Liu Wei
