[Broad Market]
The overall market overview of today is as shown in the picture:
There is probably a special release on Thursday morning. It should still be in the form of a link. It does not represent my own views. Pay attention to screening. If it is posted, the Wednesday closing note will go to the same name on Thursday morning. Just read it on Weibo, and then come to the back garden on Friday morning to grab the sofa in the comment section of Thursday’s close, and I’ll give you a red envelope. Also pay attention to the end of today’s closing note. There are some details to be reminded of.
After the market rose sharply yesterday and the trading volume in the two cities exceeded RMB 1 trillion for a long time, domestic institutions did not continue to be tough today. It can be regarded as a high-probability move after rising above 5% away from the 5-day line and falling back. I took a look and excluded examples that were too ancient (because there were too few stocks and too few transactions in the past, and at the beginning, there was no limit on price and price and T+0 was allowed, which is very different from the current environment). From 1997 onwards Look, a positive trend of more than 5% far away from the 5-day line will basically rush higher and fall back the next day. It will not directly continue to increase the volume of the positive trend. The strongest one is to follow a positive trend of about 2%. Coincidentally, it happens to be Similar to the current market, the 1999.5.19 market appeared on 1999.6.16, 6.17 and 1999.6.28, 6.29. Only when there is more than 5% positive sun below or near the 5-day line, it is possible to receive another positive sun the next day, such as 2015.8.27, 8.28, 2015.7.9, and 7.10. It seems that such extreme events only occurred after peaking in 15 years. The move, whether it is a decline or a rebound, is a move with a low probability, which is rare in history.
Because the 1999.5.19 wave had a strong positive trend and continued to move in the positive direction, the mood was quite explosive yesterday. In fact, today I still hope that it can exceed expectations. Unfortunately, the domestic institutions are not strong enough, and they are still quite cowardly. Basically, they continue to outflow significantly. After a day, a lot of them were smashed. On the contrary, Hong Kong capital did not plow around when it fell. There was still inflow throughout the day today, although the magnitude was not large. Today's Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect capital flow chart is as follows:
And today's capital flow chart of domestic institutions is as follows:
This outflow is really amazing. You can take a look at the screenshots of the inflow and outflow of the main and super large orders in the past few days:
Compare and you will know today. The outflow was really huge, and it only took two days before I got cold feet again. Today, the behavior of Hong Kong capital and domestic institutions and the trend of the market are a bit like that day on 2.15. At that time, domestic institutions also smashed the market, and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect flowed in. It dived at the end of the day, but the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect accelerated the inflow, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange was also weak throughout the day, and the GEM Obviously stronger. At that time, the market rebounded back the next day, so we can still look forward to it tomorrow. The main thing is to follow the market, and also pay attention to the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the capital flow of domestic institutions. Today’s GEM is still in line with the rules I summarized before. Shanghai and Shenzhen The inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect will not be too bad at least that day. Tomorrow, we should also pay attention to the movement of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds in the first half hour of the opening.
has now reached the range that I expected at the end of February and early March for the top of the band, which means that the left side is considered to be the range where the band peaks, so we should pay more attention to the details of the market and the bearish signals of the system. Today my system has a short-term bearish signal, and the market is not too strong. I think I can reduce my index position tomorrow when the market is strong. If the market is strong tomorrow, I can reduce it the day after tomorrow. If the market is weak tomorrow, I can reduce it tomorrow. It was reduced in batches when it reached a high level. Today, since domestic institutions did not continue to be tough, but massive outflows hit the market, it is estimated that the market will fluctuate here, and it is meaningless to allocate index positions when the market fluctuates. It is better to look for more opportunities to participate in hot stocks. As of today, the most confident period of the rise of my index system should be over. The uncertainty will be relatively high later, so the cost is not too low. The index positions added after the holiday can be reduced as planned tomorrow. The part of the position that was bought low on the Thursday before the holiday, which is particularly low-cost, can also be continued to be held until a more certain bearish signal in the band is obtained. Just have a low-cost mentality.
[Hot Spot]
The overall overview of today's hot spots is as shown in the figure:
After two consecutive days of climax, today's hot spots have greatly differentiated, which is also a normal rhythm. Today's daily limit has been lowered to 100, which is still quite a lot, but the ones that are blowing up the market are very powerful. There are 128 stocks, and the success rate of the daily limit is only 38%. Chasing high today will definitely lead to a bowl of noodles.
felt that the hot sell-off before today should have happened last Friday. As a result, stimulated by the news, the major financial brokers Mutual Finance Venture Capital collectively pushed it over in the afternoon. So I won’t mention the basic pre-heat anymore. I will only talk about the evil Oriental Communications . If he fails, the pre-heat will basically take pills, and he will definitely fall earlier than him. Today’s plot is, this is like Guofeng Plastic Industry , Fengfeng Shares, and Shen Tianma A surrendered early. If the former hot spot can continue to follow the strength of the market, it will definitely be the strongest. This is easy to calculate. If you want to do it, you should be the leader, otherwise you should not be a hot spot at all.
I have also talked about the selling point of this kind of big monster stock before, which is to consider selling after getting a true negative line. Today, when it happened to have a true negative line, came out with a classic selling point, so I will talk more about it. Be careful. Today's time-sharing diving fishing line does not need to wait until the end of and to confirm that the general trend of the day is over. This is better than selling at the end of the day. You can take a look at the time-sharing screenshots:
The specific details are that it will explode from a position with an increase of more than 6% (but not from a closed state before the end of the market. This is usually a passive opening, and may continue the next day. To reverse the trend and continue the trend, you can look at the Huafeng shares on April 27, 2018 to understand.) You can sell the high point of the wave by jumping to green and then turning red. Let’s take two examples from history. An older one is the peak selling point of Inspur Software’s 2009.4.20 link board:
. Let’s take another newer stock investor who should also have heard of the famous Chinese magic car that peaked. Time-sharing:
This time-sharing peaking pattern of high-level stocks is quite classic, so you can remember it.
The violent differentiation and fluctuation of hot spots today is mainly related to too many hot spots being launched and rotating too fast. If the market cannot continue to explode in volume, risks will arise. The previous craze here should have come to an end after the overall leader Oriental Communications peaked and dived. The height of the current space board has dropped to 5. It is the People's Network of Venture Capital with 5 consecutive boards. However, it has shrunk by one word for 3 consecutive times. , judging from the fact that Oriental Communications, which had fully changed hands in the previous cycle, is ultimately the strongest, it is still possible for the big monster to fully change hands and give people a chance to get on the bus every day. If it shrinks one word every day, it can only be seen. , you won’t be allowed to get on the bus, you won’t be able to add positions, and you won’t be able to eat much meat.
I also said yesterday that leading companies are always doing one-word shrinkage. Hot leading companies can only consider such big monster stocks. As long as they can be confirmed, they can get on the market in time until they get the selling point. In addition, after peaking, you can also consider taking part in the opportunity of buying low and rebounding, which is considered to be enough. In my hot review, I still only use the leading stock as the standard, and do not analyze other stocks, because the leading stock is the easiest to operate and difficult to confirm in time, so after I confirm it, I can follow the strategy and there will be no doubts. For other short-term or swing stocks, the countermeasures will be more complicated. Short-term needs to be flexibly dealt with during the day. Bands are even more complicated. There is no clear strategy for basic buying and selling points. Each operation can only be formulated according to the type of swing stocks involved. Corresponding strategy, so the operation of leading demon stocks is simpler.
Oriental Communications estimates that the probability of direct reversal tomorrow is low. If you look at the old leading stocks that have seen this time-sharing peaking pattern above, they basically fall to near BBI before rebounding. So for stability, let’s wait and adjust again. Then consider a rebound. It is better to miss this kind of high-priced stocks than to make a mistake.
should still focus on the new hot financial securities firms Mutual Finance and Venture Capital. In fact, there was a competition at the end of today's trading, eliminating the weak and leaving the strong, passively opening the market and then closing it in seconds, like Venture Capital's Shibei High-tech More classic. That Essence Trust big order was opened at noon and then sealed within seconds. It can be considered an intervention point, but it was relatively sudden. People who weren’t watching probably wouldn’t notice it. It wasn’t as eye-catching as the hot spots diving in late trading. . The main People's Daily Online and Great Wisdom's one-word board shrinkage has been firmly sealed. Among the leading stocks today, I will take a look at Shibei High-tech and Anxin Trust and see if they can continue to connect tomorrow.
's weekly diary suggested that it is more suitable for most people to use the GEM index fund that was bought at a relatively low price before, because the leader needs to use hand speed, the big monster stocks are not strong enough to hold on, and the followers in the back row fluctuate violently, even if they are the last board, the big stocks will be the last. Most people won't get the last one, and if the stocks in the front row that follow the trend weaken, the bottom row may stop falling, just like today, so the risk-benefit ratio is extremely poor. Index funds that lead the rise should be more suitable for most people. Once their level of market training improves, they can handle leading stocks, step by step.
At the end of the article, I would like to remind you that the content in the special releases does not represent my own opinions. Just read the review of my closing notes. Don't trust those who lead people to speculate in crude oil and metal spot futures. There are other types of capital allocation. OTC capital allocation has risks. If you have the ability, you can raise more than 500,000 yuan to open margin trading to engage in stock index futures. In fact, I don’t recommend using to leverage for margin trading and stock index futures. You don’t need to make money in a hurry. If you really have the ability to stabilize and compound interest in this market, small funds can grow quickly. If you don’t have that ability, the more you use leverage, the faster you will die. If there are any other scams, you can also remind them in the comments. The two types I see the most are: one is to deceive you into doing spot futures in the name of stock trading, and the other is irregular fund allocation over the counter. This If you don’t believe either category, you will basically avoid most scams.
The above notes are personal review notes and do not constitute investment advice. Please copy the work at your own risk.
Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.
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