The Democratic Progressive Party has a high chance of nominating the epidemic commander Chen Shizhong to fight in Taipei City. Taiwan Normal University Professor Zeng Guanqiu analyzed in an interview with "China Review News" that the current situation is favorable to Chen Shizhong. The current number of confirmed cases and deaths has been declining. The only The risk is the change of mutant viruses. But if Chen Shizhong steps down as epidemic commander by then, cuts will be made. As for whether the votes for "hating the DPP" will be concentrated on Chen Shizhong? Zeng Guanqiu believes that there will be some, but it still depends on whether there are people who continue to hate the DPP after September, October, and November. It may be that prices are too high, which can also be linked to the issue of electricity bills. However, this electricity price increase is mainly for large households and not households. Therefore, these will be factors, but they are not absolute.
Zeng Guanqiu said that Chen Shizhong has not yet announced his candidacy, and the Democratic Progressive Party has not yet nominated him, and has not made any moves yet. From now on, as long as the DPP authorities invest resources and express their willingness to invest in any construction, Chen Shizhong's poll numbers may go up. Unless there is another wave of the epidemic in August, and if the DPP authorities fail to handle it well, the sentiment of "hating the DPP" may be transferred to Chen Shizhong. However, after Jiang Wanan announced his candidacy, the polls dropped all the way, and future opportunities will mainly lie in playing the "policy card." Just by proposing policies, voters will compare whether Jiang Wanan is more powerful or Huang Shanshan is more powerful. As for whether Huang Shanshan can hold on to the current support and whether it can go up in the future, it depends on subsequent performance. The trend seems to be an opportunity to remain flat or go up.
Li Yanxiu, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Kuomintang and candidate for Taipei City Council, also said in an interview that the DPP’s base in Taipei City is between 35 and 38%. Since Chen Shizhong has not been officially nominated yet, looking at Chen Shizhong's polls, including the latest TVBS poll recently, which is even less than 20%, she thinks he is underestimated. When Chen Shizhong is officially nominated, there will be a wave of "celebrations."
Li Yanxiu mentioned that because the DPP has not yet nominated a candidate, there are signs of green camp manipulation in Huang Shanshan’s polls, and the intention to win over Huang Shanshan and defeat Jiang Wanan is very obvious. Therefore, after Chen Shizhong is officially nominated, Chen's polls will rebound. However, there is some doubt as to whether the Green Camp’s basic base can return. After all, during the epidemic prevention process, Chen Shizhong’s performance made Taipei citizens a lot dissatisfied. It remains to be seen whether the “light green” and “knowledge green” can vote for Chen Shizhong.
Former "legislator" Shen Fuxiong mentioned an opinion that Huang Shanshan can absorb Chen Shizhong's votes, which will be beneficial to Jiang Wanan's scope. Zeng Guanqiu thinks it is possible, but this part also needs to observe the actions of Ke Wenzhe, chairman of the Taiwan People's Party and mayor of Taipei. A while ago, Ke proposed to build the "Xiamen-Jinjiang Bridge". This part is to attract the votes of the blue camp. The People's Party is trying to attract the votes of light blue and "light green". Ke Wenzhe's movements absorb blue, and Huang Shanshan's movements may absorb some "light green". This strategy is smart, one black face, one white face . Huang Shanshan takes the non-stick route and leaves Keti to talk about the hot pot matters or political speeches, but leaves Huang to talk about municipal planning and political achievements, so voters can't tell who is who.
In the two Taipei mayoral elections in 2014 and 2018, KMT candidates Lian Shengwen and Ding Shouzhong both received exactly 40% of the votes. Zeng Guanqiu said that based on the Blue Camp’s basic base in Taipei City, Jiang Wanan would win if he got all of them, but now it seems like how is Jiang going to get all the Blue Camp votes? difficult.Jiang Wanan seems not to follow the blue-green duel route, and does not talk much about the " Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall " transformation issue. But if the Deep Blue supporters are let go, it will be difficult for Jiang Wanan to position himself as long as Huang Shanshan comes out to run for office.
Former "legislators" Li Yanxiu and Huang Shanshan are old rivals in Taipei City's Neihu and Nangang constituencies. Li Yanxiu believes that based on Huang Shanshan's current support or Huang's past management in Ganghu, coupled with the "legislative" competition with her, Looking at the basics of the "Committee" and so on, this Taipei mayoral election, the blue, green and white are all very strong, it will be an "epic battle", which has never been seen before. Of course Huang Shanshan has a good image and professional performance, but how much influence does she have and is it enough to be elected? She has question marks, but Huang is definitely the key to shaping this election.
Li Yanxiu said that if the DPP's basic base returns, Huang Shanshan's support may not reach more than 20%. Of course, there will be competition between Green and White. But for the Kuomintang, 40% of its base in Taipei City is secure. Therefore, the most important thing for Chiang Wanan right now is to consolidate his base and expand support among middle voters or young votes. But the most important thing is that Chiang must create a force that Taipei citizens are willing to follow. Whether it is through political opinions, municipal teams, or other methods, it must be done, because electing the mayor is not like electing a "legislator" or a council member. , relying on personal charm, handsomeness, beauty and cuteness is enough.
Li Yanxiu pointed out that from multiple polls, Jiang Wanan’s support is about 30% to 40%, but this is because the DPP has not really started to fight and has not yet reached the rhythm of a real election campaign. Therefore, Chiang must be very careful about how to turn this 40% base into a very stable base that will not be affected by various smear attacks as the upcoming election campaign becomes intense.
Zeng Guanqiu also analyzed that Jiang Wanan was initially favored because he was a new face in politics and gave everyone hope. Jiang should continue to create such an atmosphere, but neither Chen Shizhong nor Huang Shanshan looked like old faces. Huang Shanshan has been a city councilor for many years and has a lawyer background, while Jiang also has a lawyer background. Both of them have gentle images and speak relatively neutrally. "The light blue will think that it will be better to vote for the yellow, so many of Jiang Wanan's personality traits will be replaced by the yellow." Now in an election where the three powers are evenly matched, the only chance is to see who will make mistakes later in the election. (Lin Jingxian/editor)
