Recently, Taiwan stocks have fluctuated greatly. The market index began to decline from 17,500 points at the end of February. By June 29, it closed at a low of 15,240.13 points. As the main enterprise in Taiwan, the stock price of global chip manufacturing giant TSMC It has also continued to fall. From the end of February to the end of June, it has fallen by 20%. Regarding the reasons for this situation, the famous American investment bank Goldman Sachs Group released a client report, which proposed the "Taiwan Strait Risk Index" and the "Taiwan Strait Risk Barometer". Both indices have soared in the past three months. Reflecting that the Taiwan Strait risk index rose to the highest level in 10 years. However, U.S. agencies continued to take offense in the report, saying that tensions in the Taiwan Strait region will rise in the future, and the most dangerous moment has yet to come. The true story will only come after mainland China's Taiwan policy becomes completely clear.
According to the analysis report of Goldman Sachs Group, the Taiwan stock market has been fluctuating in recent years, affected by many factors. Since the COVID-19 epidemic spread around the world, Taiwan's export industry and tourism industry have been greatly affected by the fluctuations of the epidemic. However, since entering 2022, as epidemic prevention and control has stabilized, Taiwan's exports have been increasing recently, which has significantly accelerated economic development. However, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict started on February 24, Taiwan's stock market experienced a major reversal, falling by about 2,300 points in just three months, causing market confidence to suffer. Even leading companies such as TSMC suffered heavy losses. As for the reasons for this situation, Goldman Sachs Group believes that there are many factors, including the global economic crisis, the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the deepening of the Taiwan Strait crisis.
The first reason is the global economic crisis. Since the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic around the world, the economies of all countries around the world have been affected. Especially in the field of import and export trade, the consumer market is weak due to the impact of the epidemic. According to relevant news released by the British Office of National Statistics on June 24, in the past month, the cost of living for more than 90% of the people in the UK has increased significantly. For this reason, 60% of the people continue to reduce their living expenses, and 51% of the people choose to use natural gas sparingly. The weakness of the British consumer market is actually a microcosm of the weakness of the global consumer market. Taiwan has long relied on consumption and exports as the main driving force for economic development. The weakness of the global consumer market has affected exports. The island's consumer market is also relatively sluggish, and the downward pressure on the global economy is one of the important factors causing constant fluctuations in Taiwan's stock market.
The second reason is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out on February 24, the United States and the European Union have begun to impose economic sanctions on Russia, kicking several major Russian banks out of the SWIFT currency settlement system, which directly affected Russia's oil exports. As the world's most important oil and natural gas exporter, Russia's reduction in exports has led to continued increases in global oil and natural gas prices. Taiwan is also highly dependent on imports in terms of petroleum resources, which has largely led to significant price increases and rising logistics costs.
Moreover, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also led to global food price increases. Russia and Ukraine are both the world's major wheat exporters. Although the rising price of wheat did not immediately affect other crops such as rice, judging from the overall trend of global food prices, all countries in the world have been affected. According to Kyodo News citing released by the World Bank on June 5 According to the assessment data, every 1% increase in global food prices will lead to 10 million people living on less than US$1.9 a day, and the number of people who do not have enough to eat will increase significantly.
In addition to having a great impact on the economic level, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also had a profound impact on the international geopolitical pattern. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the attitude of the United States became the focus of attention from all parties. The outside world initially believed that the United States would send troops to intervene, but judging from the decisions of the United States-led NATO in recent months, NATO has repeatedly emphasized that NATO will not directly send troops to help Ukraine fight, but will insist on providing military assistance to Ukraine.NATO's attitude has reminded many people who have long had illusions about the United States. The idea of expecting American soldiers to come to help at critical moments is a fantasy. In response to this, many people in Taiwan have begun to think rationally about whether the United States will really "protect" Taiwan. Whether the so-called "helping to defend Taiwan" mentioned by Biden during his visit to Japan is really credible, and the true attitude of the United States on relevant regional issues.
The third reason is the intensification of the crisis in the Taiwan Strait. The main manifestation of this aspect is that the United States has repeatedly dispatched military aircraft and ships to operate in the Strait, and the frequency is higher than the same period in previous years. On the morning of June 28, an EP-3E electronic reconnaissance aircraft and an RC-135W electronic reconnaissance aircraft of the US Navy appeared at the southern entrance of the Taiwan Strait, as well as the Yellow Sea and East China Sea areas. The outside world believes that the purpose of the US military dispatching two main reconnaissance aircraft at a time is to search for electromagnetic signals in the surrounding waters. Among them, EP-3E is the main reconnaissance aircraft of the US military. It can detect electromagnetic waves 600-800 kilometers away at an altitude of 10,000 meters. It can monitor and analyze the flight conditions of missiles . Therefore, these two US military reconnaissance aircraft can be said to be newcomers. Not good.
In fact, just a few days before this incident occurred, on June 24, the US military dispatched a P-8A "Poseidon" anti-submarine patrol aircraft to fly across the Taiwan Strait. Regarding this operation, the US Indo-Pacific Command publicly stated that the move was to "fulfill the United States' commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region." The P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft can not only detect signals, but also detect traces of underwater submarines, posing a greater threat to other countries' submarines . In just one month, the United States has repeatedly dispatched reconnaissance aircraft and anti-submarine aircraft to the vicinity of major powers to increase its presence in the Strait area, causing the regional situation to rapidly heat up.
The situation on the island is complex and the situation in the Strait region is becoming increasingly tense. However, the analysis report of Goldman Sachs Group generally believes that: Although the two new indices of the "Taiwan Strait Risk Index" and the "Taiwan Strait Risk Barometer" have soared within three months, In fact, it has not reached the most dangerous state. As for the future direction of the situation, it may be necessary to analyze the trend of the global geopolitical struggle pattern, especially whether relevant policies will be adjusted in the next one or two years.
The outside world has begun to worry about the current tense situation in the Strait region. Due to the tendency of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to expand and the impact it has had on the world, the outside world has generally realized that regional conflicts can no longer be considered within the scope of a certain region as in the past, but must adopt a global perspective. To analyze and look at. This is especially true in areas involving geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, the series of chain reactions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remind the outside world that if unexpected situations occur in the Taiwan Strait, it will not only be a battle on the battlefield, but also a game in the fields of economy, energy, diplomacy and food security.. Once a conflict breaks out between China and the United States, the impact on the global economy, energy, food, and security will be far greater than the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Taiwanese economist Cai Mingfang concluded: "China is a big country in import and export trade and cannot withstand war. After all the troubles, China will not initiate military reunification in the next few years."
However, American institutions and Taiwanese experts have deliberately avoided one issue, that is, the root cause of the tension in the Taiwan Strait is not China. The party authorities deny the "92 Consensus". Of course, the Chinese people hope that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will achieve peaceful reunification, but in order to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, China will not hesitate to fight on the Taiwan issue, and at any cost! Military reunification is not aimed at the people of Taiwan, but to give "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference forces a head-on blow!
