US soybeans are rising again! Even USD 07 successfully stood at the key node of 1700 cents /pu. Without further ado, just go to the picture...
US soybean 07 daily chart (2022.4.21)
As for the reasons for the rise, on the public opinion side, some people say that US soybean exports are boosted, some people say that US soybean oil futures hit a high level. In short, international capital wants to rise, it is always easy to find reasons.
. Combined with several major contracts of US soybeans, it is not difficult to find that last night, except for US soybeans 05 and US soybeans 07, the others were mostly around 7-8 cents. International Capital borrows US soybeans 05 delivery to rise US soybeans 07 and 1,700 cents/pu are vividly displayed on paper.
So, what will international capital do next? Should we continue to rise at a high level to carry the Brazilian beans, or should we turn to the US soybean 05 to short the US soybean 07 high level?
Judging from the trend of the three major agricultural products in the United States, there is obviously a slight differentiation, and American wheat has fallen first. Compared with the recent strong force of US corn after breaking through the hovering zone, US soybeans rose step by step after stopping the decline and rebounding, both approaching historical highs; US wheat did not rise well, and now it has returned to its decline, and has fallen by nearly 300 cents from the high on March 8. As the leader in charge and frequent daily limit in the early stages of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is US wheat opening up a downward channel again? After all, being at a historical high is always a bit "high place is too cold".
Daily chart of the three major agricultural products in the United States (2022.4.21)
Looking around the international financial environment, the currency tightening of the major economies in the world is the sword of Damocles hanging on the commodity market. faces high inflation , and multiple , including Feder , have joined the ranks of interest rate hikes since this year. European Central Bank also sent a signal that "the rate hikes as soon as possible in July". As central banks in major developed economies such as Europe and the United States accelerate tightening of monetary policy , global liquidity will continue to tighten. At 1 a.m. tonight tonight in Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde , Bank of England Governor Bailey and other policy makers will participate in the discussion and speech of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Global Economic Group 8) Among them, what signal will the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech before , as the finale of the silent period, send out, as the upcoming "rate 50 basis points hike, or even balance sheet reduction, on May 4th? Will the global capital contraction be strategically opened? Let’s follow together.
Under the current situation, soybean meal people in the downstream are more cautious and pick up as they are used; oil plants in the middle reaches may increase hedging to avoid risks; , the upstream international capital, really has the confidence to raise US soybeans 07 and stand firm at a key node of 1,700 cents/pu? We might as well focus on the implementation of the US interest rate meeting on May 4 as a phased node.
