Inflation in the United States is soaring, and imposing tariffs on solar energy is nothing more than adding fuel to the fire and exacerbating cost burdens. Currently, China's photovoltaic industry around the world is pushing costs to the extreme. If Chinese solar modules are not

Inflation in the United States is soaring, and imposing tariffs on solar energy is nothing more than adding fuel to the fire and exacerbating the cost burden. Currently, China's photovoltaic industry around the world is pushing costs to the extreme. If Chinese solar modules are not used, the United States will suffer the most. photovoltaic industry.

html June 6 According to foreign media reports citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, the White House will announce on Monday that it will not impose any new tariffs on solar energy imports for two years, a move aimed at getting stalled solar energy projects back on track.

As soon as this news came out, the domestic photovoltaic sector rose sharply.

html On June 6, the photovoltaic sector was strong throughout the day. Yabo Co., Ltd. (002323) closed the board in a straight line, Jiejia Weichuang (300724) rose by more than 12%, Shanxi Coal International (600546), Jinchen Co., Ltd. (603396), Saiwu Technology ( 603212), Tuori Xinneng (002218) and other stocks hit the daily limit, Sungrow (300274) rose more than 8%, Trina Solar , JA Solar Technology (002459), Risen Energy (300118) ) and so on.

html On May 31, the Biden administration announced a new policy to promote the development of clean energy, which will significantly reduce the development costs of building wind and solar energy on federal lands.

The U.S. Department of the Interior said that rents and related costs for solar and wind energy projects will drop by approximately 50% as a result. According to the current proportion of solar power generation in the United States being less than 3%, there is considerable room for improvement in the future.

However, as we all know, 15 of the top 20 companies in the global photovoltaic industry are from China. China has 4,089 photovoltaic patents, which is 27 times that of the United States.

html June 6, according to the " Wall Street Journal " citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, the White House may announce on Monday that it will not impose any new tariffs on solar energy imports within two years due to pressure from inflation and renewable energy development.

On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo said that lifting tariffs on some goods "might make sense" to help curb the worst inflation in the United States in 40 years.

Since the anti-circumvention investigation was launched, public opinion pressure on the U.S. photovoltaic industry has continued to escalate. The U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Association, 19 governors, and 85 members of Congress jointly complained in May that "the anti-circumvention investigation has harmed the U.S. photovoltaic industry and more than 230,000 jobs." Jobs have brought about an unprecedented crisis.”

Taking into account both inflationary pressure and the demand for renewable energy development, the probability of the United States loosening its photovoltaic trade policies such as anti-circumvention investigations in Southeast Asia has increased significantly. This may drive terminal demand prosperity to continue to exceed expectations in the third quarter of this year and beyond.

The photovoltaic demand potential in the United States is huge, and it is difficult for local manufacturers to meet it.

There are currently three main policy goals to encourage the development of clean energy in the United States: Biden proposed in 2021 "to achieve a 100% clean energy economy by 2035" (100% Clean Electricity by 2035) , the "Photovoltaic power generation accounted for 30% in 2030" (SEIA30x30) proposed by the American Photovoltaic Industry Association in 2021, the "Build Back Better Act-ITC Extension for 10 Years" (BuildBackBetter Act, which was passed by the House of Representatives in 2021 but is still being heard in the Senate) BBB).

Previously, on May 2, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a memo on its website stating that it would not conduct anti-circumvention investigations on companies that use silicon wafers produced outside China to manufacture cells and components. This statement can alleviate the U.S.’s concerns to a certain extent. The supply of photovoltaic modules and employment pressure in related industries will benefit Chinese photovoltaic companies with a high degree of integration in Southeast Asia. The final result still needs to wait for the investigation results on August 30, 2022 and the final ruling on January 6, 2023.

At present, although the tariffs on China have not yet been cancelled, according to a report by The two tariffs of 301 are 15% and 25% respectively, with a total of 40%. The two actions of the "301 investigation" will end on July 6 and August 23 this year respectively.

In the field of photovoltaics, China is the global big brother. From upstream silicon raw materials to downstream HJT and ToPcon182/210 cells, China is inseparable.

After taking office, the Biden administration has set many goals for accelerating energy transformation, but at the same time, it hopes to use some means to grow the local photovoltaic manufacturing industry.

However, the reality is that it is difficult for local solar manufacturers in the United States to compete with products from China. The removal of tariff measures will undoubtedly disappoint small solar manufacturers in the United States.

In February, Auxin Solar, a San Jose, California-based manufacturer of solar panels , submitted a petition to the U.S. Department of Commerce asking federal trade officials to launch an investigation into whether to impose tariffs on imports from four Asian countries. The company believes Chinese manufacturers have moved production to these countries to avoid paying tariffs.

In fact, China’s photovoltaic export volume has indeed been very large in recent years.

In recent years, my country's photovoltaic cells have been mainly exported, with exports of 10.3GW in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 14%.

Secondly, according to customs statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, my country's photovoltaic cell exports were US$830 million. India, Turkey , Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam accounted for 72% of the export market share, and exports to India accounted for 36% of the market share. , mainly due to India’s imposition of additional tariffs on April 1, importers rushed to import before costs rose.

’s export market share to Turkey is 13%, which is mainly due to Turkey’s new demand for photovoltaics and the fact that its cells are not included in anti-dumping , resulting in an increase in export share.

China's technology leadership and cost advantage are the largest

The change in cell supply type is largely due to the improvement of photoelectric conversion efficiency of cells and the improvement of the technological maturity of production equipment. The photoelectric conversion efficiency of BSF cells is less than 20%, so it is gradually phased out; PERC As the cells develop over time, the photoelectric conversion efficiency is expected to increase from 22.5 to 24.1%, and the photoelectric conversion efficiency is 14%-22% higher than that of BSF cells; as the TOPCon cells develop over time, the photoelectric conversion efficiency is expected to increase from 22.8 to 25.6 %; As HJT cells develop over time, the photoelectric conversion efficiency is expected to increase from 22% to 26%.

The technology in the photovoltaic industry is rapidly iteratively upgraded. The larger the size of the silicon wafer, the better it is to reduce processing costs.

silicon wafer size has experienced three major changes: the first stage from 1981 to 2012, the silicon wafer sizes were mainly 100mm and 125mm; the second stage from 2012 to 2018, mainly M0-M2 silicon wafers; the third stage Since 2018, larger silicon wafers such as G1, M6, G12, and M10 have appeared one after another. When the size of silicon wafers increases to a certain size, new demands will be placed on processing equipment. On the other hand, the thinning of silicon wafers is also advancing, which can make the silicon wafers more flexible and bring more possibilities to the battery and component sides. Currently, the mainstream 166, 182 and 210 monocrystalline silicon wafers thickness on the market have reached 160μm, which is 16% thinner than in 2016. Currently, the thinnest P-type silicon wafers sold by Zhonghuan are 150 μm, and the thinnest N-type silicon wafers have reached 130 μm. It is expected that the thickness of silicon wafers will be further reduced in the future.

Based on the neutral assumption, if the 301 tariffs are lifted, mainland China's components, inverters, and products are expected to be directly exported to the United States. Among them, bifacial modules will benefit the most, leaving only double anti-tariffs (some corporate tax rates in the 2021 ruling is 0) impact. Among the inverter companies, Jinlang has benefited the most (it took the initiative to give up part of its share due to the impact of the 301 tariff), and Sunshine, Hemai, etc. will also benefit.

As for the local manufacturing plan, we believe that it will be difficult to replace Chinese companies even if 22.5GW of production capacity is built in 24 years when there are no advantages in labor, industrial chain supporting and other aspects and the demand for installed equipment is high.