In the afternoon of May 11, the three major indexes continued to rise, and the GEM index once rose by more than 5%. However, the banking sector remained calm and continued to fluctuate slightly near the water surface. In terms of individual stocks, Zhengzhou Bank, China Merchants Bank, etc. rose by more than 1%, Ping An Bank, Ningbo Bank, etc. rose; Industrial Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, etc. fell by more than 1%.
The largest A-share bank ETF (512800) is currently trading flat, with a turnover of 245 million yuan.
However, under the surface of , there is an undercurrent of . Financiers once again threw their chips in during the adjustment of the sector. Data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that since the adjustment of the banking sector in mid-to-late April, financing customers have begun to add positions in reverse. As of May 10, the financing balance of Bank ETF (512800) has reached 1.05 billion yuan, is once again approaching the historical high. Bit .
Judging from historical statistics, financing customers tend to have a keen sense of smell . On March 15 this year, bank ETF (512800) financing balance reached a historical high of 1.06 billion yuan. On the same day, was also a periodic low of bank ETF (512800).1.047 Yuan , then the banking sector started a round of rebound, the cumulative increase in 24 trading days since the low was more than 14%.
Judging from another indicator worthy of attention - the amount of intraday redemptions, on May 11, during the shock adjustment period, bank ETF (512800) premium continued to widen , and funds continued to pour into . Market data showed that The bank ETF (512800) has received net subscription funds exceeding 1.300 million yuan .
Shanghai Stock Exchange data shows that on the previous trading day, the bank ETF (512800) has received net subscription funds of more than 7700 million, and the latest fund scale has reached 98.52, making it the largest bank ETF in A shares.
With A-shares oscillating around 3,000 points, more investors choose to grasp the industry rotation and allocation of in bank stocks through bank ETFs (512800) and their feeder funds (A share code 240019; C share code 006697) Investment Quotes. Bank ETFs and their feeder funds track the CSI Bank Index, which includes 40 listed bank stocks, reflecting the overall market conditions of the sector and avoiding black swan risks of individual stocks. 70% of the positions focus on China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Ping An Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Bank of Jiangsu, etc. High-growth bank stocks, with small positions allocated to city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, can capture short-term theme opportunities. is an efficient investment tool for sharing banking sector trends!
news, on May 9, the central bank released China’s monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2022, China’s monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2022 (pbc.gov.cn). The report analyzed the current macroeconomic situation and introduced the following The implementation direction of the first-stage monetary policy was explained, and key tasks such as the market-oriented reform of deposit interest rates were explained.
For investors, especially investors in banking stocks, what information does this report reveal? What are the things that must be paid attention to and paid attention to? Let’s take a look at the latest research and judgments from major institutions!
1, Northeast Securities: Unilateral profit concessions are a thing of the past, soldiers and horses must move forward first.
1Q22 Monetary Policy Implementation Report, combined with various previous bank-related policies, once again verified our view that " unilateral profit concessions have become a thing of the past." Things have become a thing of the past, and soldiers and horses must use food and grass first.". On the basis of the previous encouragement to lower the floating upper limit of deposit interest rates, a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates will be established, that is, banks will reasonably adjust deposit interest rates based on the 10-year treasury bond yield and 1-year LPR, and will improve bank credit from the "price" dimension. Capability ; At the same time, the 1Q22 monetary policy implementation report also mentioned the important role of perpetual bond supplementary capital in credit extension. Combined with the reduction of provision and supplementary capital proposed in the policy, a combination of external and internal sources, from the "quantity" dimension Improve bank credit granting capabilities .
In the afternoon of May 11, the three major indexes continued to rise, and the GEM index once rose by more than 5%. However, the banking sector remained calm and continued to fluctuate slightly near the water surface. In terms of individual stocks, Zhengzhou Bank, China Merchants Bank, etc. rose by more than 1%, Ping An Bank, Ningbo Bank, etc. rose; Industrial Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, etc. fell by more than 1%.
The largest A-share bank ETF (512800) is currently trading flat, with a turnover of 245 million yuan.
However, under the surface of , there is an undercurrent of . Financiers once again threw their chips in during the adjustment of the sector. Data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that since the adjustment of the banking sector in mid-to-late April, financing customers have begun to add positions in reverse. As of May 10, the financing balance of Bank ETF (512800) has reached 1.05 billion yuan, is once again approaching the historical high. Bit .
Judging from historical statistics, financing customers tend to have a keen sense of smell . On March 15 this year, bank ETF (512800) financing balance reached a historical high of 1.06 billion yuan. On the same day, was also a periodic low of bank ETF (512800).1.047 Yuan , then the banking sector started a round of rebound, the cumulative increase in 24 trading days since the low was more than 14%.
Judging from another indicator worthy of attention - the amount of intraday redemptions, on May 11, during the shock adjustment period, bank ETF (512800) premium continued to widen , and funds continued to pour into . Market data showed that The bank ETF (512800) has received net subscription funds exceeding 1.300 million yuan .
Shanghai Stock Exchange data shows that on the previous trading day, the bank ETF (512800) has received net subscription funds of more than 7700 million, and the latest fund scale has reached 98.52, making it the largest bank ETF in A shares.
With A-shares oscillating around 3,000 points, more investors choose to grasp the industry rotation and allocation of in bank stocks through bank ETFs (512800) and their feeder funds (A share code 240019; C share code 006697) Investment Quotes. Bank ETFs and their feeder funds track the CSI Bank Index, which includes 40 listed bank stocks, reflecting the overall market conditions of the sector and avoiding black swan risks of individual stocks. 70% of the positions focus on China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Ping An Bank, Bank of Ningbo, Bank of Jiangsu, etc. High-growth bank stocks, with small positions allocated to city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, can capture short-term theme opportunities. is an efficient investment tool for sharing banking sector trends!
news, on May 9, the central bank released China’s monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2022, China’s monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2022 (pbc.gov.cn). The report analyzed the current macroeconomic situation and introduced the following The implementation direction of the first-stage monetary policy was explained, and key tasks such as the market-oriented reform of deposit interest rates were explained.
For investors, especially investors in banking stocks, what information does this report reveal? What are the things that must be paid attention to and paid attention to? Let’s take a look at the latest research and judgments from major institutions!
1, Northeast Securities: Unilateral profit concessions are a thing of the past, soldiers and horses must move forward first.
1Q22 Monetary Policy Implementation Report, combined with various previous bank-related policies, once again verified our view that " unilateral profit concessions have become a thing of the past." Things have become a thing of the past, and soldiers and horses must use food and grass first.". On the basis of the previous encouragement to lower the floating upper limit of deposit interest rates, a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates will be established, that is, banks will reasonably adjust deposit interest rates based on the 10-year treasury bond yield and 1-year LPR, and will improve bank credit from the "price" dimension. Capability ; At the same time, the 1Q22 monetary policy implementation report also mentioned the important role of perpetual bond supplementary capital in credit extension. Combined with the reduction of provision and supplementary capital proposed in the policy, a combination of external and internal sources, from the "quantity" dimension Improve bank credit granting capabilities . has two dimensions of price and volume, starting from the bank itself and smoothing out its credit granting capabilities .
We are optimistic about the relative returns and absolute returns of the banking sector at the current stage. Economic pressure still exists + strong policy expectations = relative returns : The current downward pressure on the economy still exists, and the loose liquidity environment will be maintained. While the main line is not yet clear, more funds may flow into the banking sector, bringing about to achieve relative gains. Excellent performance + wide credit and stable growth = absolute income : Excellent performance and asset quality reaching the best level in recent years have become the main characteristics of currently listed banks.
Soochow Securities: Monetary policy continues to be loose, focuses on reducing bank liability costs
In terms of interest rates, deposit and loan interest rates have fallen, and the policy interest rate system has been optimized. The central bank continued the statement of "reducing the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises" and added "optimizing the central bank's policy interest rate system and strengthening the supervision of deposit interest rates." In terms of deposit interest rates, there is a column to discuss "Establishing a market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates." Our grassroots research has seen a number of banks lowering interest rates on time deposits and certificates of deposit by 10-15 basis points to reduce bank liability-side costs; in terms of loan interest rates, in 2022 The weighted average loan interest rate in March was 4.65%, a decrease of 10BP from the fourth quarter of 2021, which is a record low since statistics..
3. Everbright Securities: Under the contradiction between supply and demand, loan interest rates have appeared and will still fall sharply.
html In March, the interest rates of new corporate and mortgage loans dropped by 21bp and 14bp respectively from the beginning of the year. This is the result of the contradiction between loan supply and demand.On the one hand, under the background of insufficient effective demand, corporate financing will gradually migrate from high-pricing banks to low-pricing banks. Under the pressure of competition, banks need to lower loan interest rates . On the other hand, the loan interest rates obtained by high-quality central state-owned enterprises are even lower, and the proportion of loans priced at LPR discounts has increased significantly. does not rule out the occurrence of a certain degree of "leakage and leakage" of funds, and through bill discounts and low-interest loans Funds are idle and arbitraged .
In the second quarter, credit extension will be greatly affected by the epidemic, and it is difficult for credit demand to improve substantially, especially in the retail sector, which shows signs of shrinking its balance sheet. It is expected that the policy-driven effect will be further enhanced in the follow-up . It is not ruled out that there will be a "credit pulse" again in June, but there is still room for downwards in various types of loan interest rates in the future, and there is large room for a decline in mortgage interest rates.
4, Zheshang Securities: loan interest rates have declined month-on-month, and Zhenghe's interest rates have once again confirmed
that the interest rates for newly issued loans in March 2022 were -11bp compared with December 2021, which is in line with market expectations, attributed to the impact of interest rate cuts and weak retail credit demand. Looking forward, as the impact of interest rate cuts subsides and the economy stabilizes, leading to a recovery in consumption, the downward trend in new loans is expected to slow down.
In 20224, the central bank guided the interest rate self-discipline mechanism to establish a market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates . The member banks of the self-regulatory mechanism referred to the market interest rates represented by the 10-year treasury bond yield and the 1-year LPR to reasonably adjust the deposit interest rate level. For adjustments For timely and efficient institutions, the central bank will provide appropriate incentives.
The upgraded cost reduction measures are expected to alleviate the pressure of narrowing bank interest margins. At the same time, it once again confirms the change in the profit-sharing model we proposed: banks have shifted from unilateral profit-sharing to positive and sum-profit sharing . The decline in bank liability costs will become a source of reasonable profit margins. Ultimately, a win-win situation will be achieved in which banks will have profits, entities will receive support, and finances will receive dividends.
Risk warning: The underlying index tracked by the bank ETF (512800) is the CSI Bank Index (399986). The base date of the CSI Bank Index is 2004.12.31 and was released on 2013.7.15. The composition of the index constituent stocks is adjusted in a timely manner according to the index compilation rules. , its backtested historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, expressions of any form, etc.) is for reference only, and investors must be responsible for any independent investment decisions. In addition, any opinions, analyzes and predictions in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to readers, and the company does not assume any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by the use of the content of this article. Fund investment involves risks, and a fund's past performance does not represent its future.
This article comes from the financial world
This article comes from the financial world
