On May 9, French President Macron stated in the EU Parliament that it will take several years, or even decades, before it can officially join EU . He also emphasized that the EU cannot lower the entry standards for the EU in order to speed up the approval process.
This news is undoubtedly a bolt from the blue for Ukraine. One of the important reasons why Ukraine broke out in 2014 was that the then president Yanukovych canceled the process of entering the EU, which caused dissatisfaction among the people who were eager to join the EU, and eventually led to regime change and the division of the eastern Ukrainian region. The "special military operation" initiated by Russia later is also directly related to this.
It can be said that the essential reason why Ukraine is trapped in a brutal war today is ultimately a problem of "departure from Russia and entering Europe". Ukrainian people generally believe that continuing to follow Russia has no development prospects, and that only by joining the EU can we hope to get rid of poverty. Even after the Russian-speaking areas in the eastern Russian-speaking areas, which were discriminated against by the Ukrainian government, tried every means to flee to the western region and EU countries, and few people went to Russia to take refuge. This shows how much Ukrainian people yearn for the EU.
In this context, Macron suddenly told Ukraine that joining the EU may require decades to wait, and the degree of disappointment in the Ukrainian people can be imagined.
The EU has always strictly controlled for the application for entry into Europe by Eastern European countries, including both economic and political factors. In other words, the EU is worried that Eastern European countries will join the EU only for the purpose of improving their economy, but do not agree with the EU's ideas and laws. As a result, it not only causes the EU to split, but also wastes EU aid funds. Especially in recent years, Hungary and other former Soviet Union's " satellite country " have frequently sang against the EU, which has made the EU even more doubtful about accepting Eastern European countries.
But in the Ukrainian view, the country's political stance should not be questioned. After all, in order to join the EU, the Ukrainians have made too many sacrifices. They not only overthrew the pro-Russian government and purged the pro-Russian people in eastern Ukraine, but also fought against Russia. If this cannot be trusted, then is really hurting the Ukrainian relationship.
It is reported that as early as 2014, Ukraine signed a "Joint Agreement" with the EU, whose main content is to promote economic, legal integration between the two sides, which can be regarded as a test period before Ukraine joins the EU. However, due to Yanukovych's obstruction and the influence of the "color revolution", the agreement did not officially come into effect until September 1, 2017.
According to the previous practice of entering Europe by other Eastern European countries, it took up to 10 years from "being tested" to officially joining the EU. Even if it is not counted as the three years delayed by the "color revolution", Ukraine should be able to successfully enter Europe by around 2027 at the latest.
However, Macron means that Ukraine not only needs to wait for several years, or even decades to join the EU, but also the calculation will begin from February 28 when the Ukrainian government applies for the second time to enter the EU. This means that the series of "votes" paid by Ukraine before have all been invalidated by . The EU will not take any special care of Ukraine's anti-Russian actions, and all processes must be strictly implemented in accordance with EU regulations.
Considering that accepting new member states requires unanimous agreement from 27 old member states, Macron's statement is actually no less than the death penalty for Ukraine's "Dream of Entry into Europe". Some analysts believe that the reason why Macron did this is probably to force Ukraine to re-negotiate with Russia and accept certain concessions in order to achieve peace and stability in the European region as soon as possible. Because Ukrainian President Zelensky had previously stated that the Russian army must retreat to its position before February 23, otherwise Ukraine will not participate in any negotiations. However, in the military parade speech on " Victory Day " on May 9, Russian President Putin publicly defined the Donbass region as Russian territory. As a result, the two sides fell into a stalemate, which is something that major European powers such as France do not want to see.
So Macron stressed in his first speech after re-election in the European Parliament that must achieve peace without "humiliating" Russia. In other words, in order to ensure that Russia's face is not damaged, then Ukraine can only make certain sacrifices, such as giving up the sovereignty of the Donbass region. After all, if you have to offend one side between Russia and Ukraine, obviously has the lowest price to offend Ukraine.
It is worth noting that Macron also proposed an alternative solution, namely, to establish a "European political community" specifically for the acceptance of Ukraine. It must be pointed out that compared with the real EU, is at best an draw cake . If the access conditions for the community are relaxed, it will not reach the level of the EU. But if the entry threshold is too high, it is no different from directly joining the EU. In short, the positioning of this so-called "European political community" is relatively useless and has little practical significance.
(text/Nanyang Hero)
