Zelensky just finished comments that Ukraine wanted to regain all lost lands, and then launched a $750 billion post-war reconstruction plan on the "platform" provided by EU . August is the time for Zelensky to plan a major counterattack, and now it seems that he is preparing for a truce. So, will Ukraine counterattack in August or a ceasefire in August?
"Bloody battle to the end" and "final victory over Russia", this is Zelensky's catchphrase. When Russia announced the end of the first phase of the operation, Ukraine clearly stated that it had won the battle of Kiev and was preparing to lay the foundation for the decisive battle of Donbas to launch a large counterattack against Russia in July or August to achieve the final victory.
The current situation is that Donbass Battle is coming to an end. Although North Donetsk persisted for a long time, Lisichangsk's army soon "retreated strategically." It can be expected that the Ukrainian army will soon strategically retreat from the last important fortress of Donbass Slaviyansk . At the G7 and NATO expansion summit that just ended, the Western Alliance emphasized that Ukraine would fully support it as long as it needs it. The United States and Britain have announced that they will provide more heavy weapons to Ukraine. This gave Zelensky another dose of chicken blood. In the case of Lixichang's rapid defeat, he was full of confidence and boldness to regain all lost land. The defeat in the Battle of Lixichang became a strategic victory for the Ukrainian army's comprehensive counterattack plan. Because it consumed a large amount of Russian troops, it won the full support of the West, and also won the preparation time for the August counterattack. This is Zelian's logic.
However, as soon as the words to recover all lost lands were finished, Ukrainian Prime Minister Smegal attended the "Ukrainian Reconstruction Conference" hosted by the EU on Switzerland on the 4th, and announced a 2,000-page, 750 billion US dollars post-war reconstruction plan.
either counterattacked in August or rebuild after the armistice in August. It can be seen that Zelian has been making preparations for both hands. So, what are Zelensky's plans?
We have analyzed that whether it is to fight a protracted war or to achieve a ceasefire peace talks as soon as possible, it has determined that Ukraine has become "unparalleled". And the longer the battle is, the more land sovereignty it will lose. There is only one way to protect Ukraine, that is, to drag the United States and Europe directly into the battlefield. Only by detonating the European war in Ukraine can we be saved.
reached a consensus to fully support Ukraine at the just-concluded G7 and NATO summits. The United States and Britain immediately announced that they would provide more heavy weapons to support the Ukrainian army in defeating Russia. At the same time, it also emphasized that "is war or talk" allowed Ukraine to make decisions independently. There will be no external pressure. This is great news for Ukraine.
Since the United States and Britain provide more destructive heavy weapons, other NATO countries will continue to follow up. With these powerful killing weapons, the threat to the Russian army will naturally increase greatly. Even if the situation on the battlefield cannot be completely reversed, it will be enough to delay the Russian army's attack progress. The longer the war drags on, the greater the possibility of dragging the United States and Europe into the battlefield. This was always Zelensky's plan.
After obtaining long-range strike weapons provided by the United States, Britain and others, the Ukrainian army targeted not the Russian army, but the Russian mainland and Donbas civilian areas. Obviously, this was intended to arouse Russia's anger towards NATO. The previous promise to not use NATO weapons to attack Russia's mainland does not count. Russia has not yet made a formal response. Perhaps still evaluating? Or maybe it's still watching the effect? No matter what, once Russia suffers too much, it will inevitably directly retaliate against the United States and Europe. Zelian really hopes this move will work.
Although it seems that Russia can afford it at present, as the war and sanctions time extend, Russia can always be unable to afford it. Especially when it is severely damaged by long-range strike weapons from the United States and Europe, it is difficult to be furious.
In short, only by continuing to fight a protracted war can we have hope of dragging the United States and Europe directly into the battlefield. Only by detonating the European war can Ukraine have the opportunity to be safe.
However, Zelensky's mind is well known to everyone. Except for a few small Eastern European countries that do not know how to live or die, major countries such as the United States, Britain, France and Germany will never go directly to war with Russia. And Russia will definitely have some concerns.It will not be serious unless it is absolutely necessary. Judging from the current situation, even if Russia can't help but attack an Eastern European country, NATO's joint defense mechanism will not be activated. Western powers do not have the courage to face Russia's nuclear deterrence.
Lithuanian , which wants to try to "ignite" himself, is currently facing tremendous pressure from the EU, and it is basically certain to lift the blockade of Kaliningrad . This at least shows that European powers will not fight for Lithuania. Of course, we won't fight for Ukraine.
Although the two summits that just ended stated their independent decision-making rights to not interfere with Ukraine, the EU will promote the convening of the post-war reconstruction conference in Switzerland as soon as the summit ends. This is actually forcing Ukraine to return to the negotiation ceasefire as soon as possible. The Ukrainian Prime Minister's participation in the meeting and came up with a 2,000-page, 750 billion US dollars post-war reconstruction plan, which actually shows that Zelensky already knew that the situation was hopeless.
Judging from the current battlefield situation, no matter how many killing weapons the United States and Europe provide, they are vulnerable to Russia, the world's second military power. The battle after Lixichang will also be one-sided. The Donbass region is also the last fortress to protect Kiev , which is Slaviyansk. After the Russian army captured this area, the Russian army basically faced Kiev. It is only a little over 100 kilometers away from Kiev.
Donbass went out independently, which is a fact that it cannot be recovered no matter what. Since 2014, the Ukrainian army has not been able to fully control this area. Now that the Russian army is involved, the Ukrainian army has no such ability. What's more, the Donbas armed forces are now different from the past.
Therefore, no matter how many weapons the United States and Europe provide, the Ukrainian army's counterattack plan in August will definitely not be implemented. As the Ukrainian army retaliated against civilian targets in the Donbass region and other Russian coalition-controlled areas, Kiev and other places will also be subject to retaliatory blows.
So, can a ceasefire be achieved in August? There should be no big problem for the Russian coalition to take over Slaviyansk in more than a month. In other words, the goal of liberating Donbass is possible. It should be possible to conduct ceasefire negotiations in this way.
At present, the EU is still actively promoting the armistice negotiations. This is mainly because the EU can't afford the huge damage to the economy caused by war. Importantly, both the EU and the UK are actively promoting post-war reconstruction, which is actually intentional to promote armistice negotiations. Since the previous plan of the United States and Britain, France, Germany and Mission to negotiate for "land for peace" shows that it is also known that it is for Ukraine to fight a protracted war.
Russia has made a clear statement that as long as Ukraine is willing, Russia can stop the attack at any time.
Although Zelensky made a tough statement that he would completely recover the lost territory, he also publicly stated a few days ago that he had tried to end the war before winter came. This shows that he no longer insists on refusing to negotiate.
Although all parties are pushing for a ceasefire, it is really hard to say whether it can really stop in August. An important aspect is that it depends on the speed at which the Russian army finally captured Slaviyansk, an important barrier to Kiev. If we can quickly capture this place, I believe it will be enough to completely break Zelian's confidence and hope. When the Russian army faced Kiev directly again, Zelian probably had to take the initiative to sit back at the negotiating table.
If the Ukrainian army here still has the will to fight, its combat effectiveness will also be enhanced after receiving the support of heavy weapons from the United States and Europe. Maybe we can hold on here for 2-3 months, so naturally we can only have a truce before winter comes.
In short, Ukraine's counterattack in August will definitely be gone, but there is a high possibility of a ceasefire in August. The end of the war before winter was designed by Putin from the beginning, which should be a high probability event.
(Source: Kunlun Ce.com [author authorization] , converted from "Dynamic Big Reference")
