The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has attracted worldwide attention. On the surface, this war is taking place between Russia and Ukraine, but in fact it is a game between Russia and NATO . Why is it said that the war between Russia and Ukraine is essentially a wrestling match between Russia and NATO? You must know that it has been more than 30 years since Ukraine became independent in 1991, but the disputes between Russia and Ukraine have gradually become more acute since 2004. In other words, Ukraine had a friendly relationship with Russia for more than ten years after independence.
The turning point in Russia-Ukraine relations began with the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004: From then on, Russia and Western countries led by the United States began to actively intervene in Ukrainian domestic politics. Since then, Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, Yanukovych and several other big guys, under the control of the two major powers, the United States and Russia, continue to stage a drama of collaboration in the Ukrainian political arena. During this period, pro-Russian and pro-Western political forces took turns in power in Ukraine, so Ukraine's foreign policy line always swung back and forth between pro-Russia and pro-Western.
Historically, the land of Ukraine has been changing its owners back and forth between various European powers: Poland - Lithuania When it was strong, a large area of land and people in western Ukraine came under its rule. After the rise of Tsarist Russia, eastern Ukraine was again Its annexation, in addition to Germany also briefly became the master of Ukraine during the two world wars. It was not until after World War II that Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine were integrated into a republic of the Soviet Union for the first time. This shows that Ukraine’s land, people, and history are all in bulk.
Today, there are a large number of Russians who speak Russian and believe in the Orthodox Church in the area in eastern Ukraine close to Russia, and the economic life in this area also depends on energy supplies such as oil, natural gas provided by Russia; people living in western Ukraine Mainly speaking Ukrainian Catholic, and this region is mainly economically dependent on trade with EU countries. Ukraine's repeated swings on the diplomatic line have naturally caused conflicts between different ethnic groups in the country that are pro-Russian and pro-Western.
At the end of 2013, Ukrainian pro-Russian President Yanukovych decided to terminate the signing of political and free trade agreements with the EU and instead planned to strengthen diplomatic relations with Russia. This angered Western countries and pro-Western political forces in Ukraine. On November 22, 2013, pro-Western political forces launched an anti-government demonstration in Kiev , and pro-Russian political forces in eastern Ukraine immediately launched tit-for-tat actions. In March 2014, the Crimea region in Ukraine, inhabited by ethnic Russians, took the lead in joining the Russian Federation in the form of a referendum.
After Crimea entered Russia, pro-Russian militants in Donetsk and Luhansk also followed suit and announced the establishment of the "Donetsk People's Republic" on April 7, 2014 and April 28, 2014. ” and “Luhansk People’s Republic”. The Ukrainian government immediately mobilized the army to the eastern region to suppress the independence movements in the two regions. After Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence, they were pinned to the ground and beaten by Ukrainian government troops. Seeing that the Ukrainian government forces were about to secure victory, Russia extended a helping hand to the local militia groups.
The Udong militia turned the tide of the war around after receiving support from Russia. The war resulted in approximately thirteen thousand deaths. In the end, the two warring parties reached the "Minsk Agreement " with the participation and mediation of the European Union. In fact, both warring parties are dissatisfied with most of the contents of the Minsk Agreement. Although the two parties signed an agreement on the surface, they did not really intend to implement the agreement. Since then, the two sides have been fighting off and on until it evolved into Russia's large-scale special military operation in Ukraine.
In the first ten years after Ukraine became independent, its relationship with Russia was actually relatively good. During this period, Russia never raised any issues regarding debt, territory, etc. to Ukraine. However, after the color revolution, Ukraine began to drift away from Russia.This shows that what Russia really cares about is the objective fact that Ukraine is getting closer to Western countries. Russia's current special military operations in Ukraine are not to occupy Ukrainian territory, but to achieve the goal of preventing Ukraine from joining the NATO organization .
Why is Russia doing everything possible to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO? This first requires explaining the relationship between Russia and NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO for short) was established under the Cold War confrontation pattern between the Western capitalist camp, led by the United States and the Soviet Union, and the Eastern socialist camp: on April 4, 1949, the United States, Canada, Belgium, , and France , Luxembourg , Netherlands , the United Kingdom, Denmark , Norway , Iceland , Portugal and Italy. Twelve countries signed the North Atlantic Treaty in Washington, the capital of the United States.
On August 24 of the same year, various countries completed the approval procedures, thus announcing the establishment of NATO. On February 18, 1952, NATO admitted Greece and Turkey as new members; on May 6, 1955, the then Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) was admitted as a new member. Just the day before West Germany joined NATO, Soviet leader Khrushchev conveyed a message to NATO: The Soviet Union intended to join NATO. In Khrushchev's words: "The existence of NATO is provocative to Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union is accepted as a member of NATO, this nature will immediately change."
NATO is essentially a political and military organization used by the Western capitalist camp headed by the United States to contain the Soviet Union and Eastern European socialist countries in the context of the Cold War. This is why Khrushchev said that the existence of NATO was provocative to Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. However, if the Soviet Union joins NATO, it means that this organization, which originally represented the interests of the Western capitalist camp, will be transformed into a platform for cooperation and exchange between the two major camps of capitalism and socialism. It is obvious that the Soviet Union hopes to ease its relations with Western countries by joining NATO.
The Soviet Union’s proposal to join NATO directly struck a chord with the United States. At that time, the United States was only thinking about how to contain the Soviet Union. As a defense system, NATO needs to have so-called "common enemies" from the outside. If the Soviet Union and Eastern European socialist countries are admitted, the position of the United States, the leading brother, within NATO will inevitably be shaken. After the Soviet Union joined, NATO could no longer be used as a tool for the United States to contain the Soviet and Eastern socialist camps. The United States therefore put pressure on other NATO members to explicitly reject the Soviet proposal.
This made the Soviet Union fully aware that the geostrategic space competition between itself and NATO would be inevitable. This situation prompted the eight countries of the Soviet Union, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and the then Democratic Germany to sign the Warsaw Pact on May 14, 1955. At this point, the Warsaw Pact , which was opposed to NATO, was formally established, thus forming a Cold War confrontation between the two major political and military blocs. This situation lasted until the Warsaw Pact was disbanded in 1991 amid the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
The fall of the Warsaw Pact, an old Cold War rival, caused serious differences of opinion within NATO. The United States has long had a competitive relationship with its European allies. Although the United Kingdom, France and other Western European countries followed the United States in the general direction of containing the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, the establishment of the European Community itself was an attempt by European countries to maintain their own voice as much as possible outside the two poles of the United States and the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, the purpose of jointly containing the Soviet Union and the Eastern European bloc could also keep the United States and its European allies under the NATO system.
But now that the Soviet-Eastern camp no longer exists, what is the significance of NATO's existence? All the European allies of the United States are thinking about this issue, but no matter how European countries feel, it still depends on the face of the United States. The United States believes that the disintegration of the Soviet Union is not the end, but the beginning of a new meaning: after the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, a huge power vacuum appeared in Eastern Europe.In the eyes of the United States, this is exactly a God-given opportunity for it to further expand its power. Therefore, the United States will never allow NATO, which is its own expansion tool, to be disbanded. Instead, it will find ways to further expand the scale of NATO.
After some disputes between the United States and its European allies, the United States' claims finally gained an overwhelming advantage. From 1993, the United States began to reveal its intention to expand eastward. Poland and other Eastern European countries expressed their desire to join NATO to the United States and the European Union. However, what the United States did not expect was that NATO would The eastward expansion plan has gained an unexpected responder—Russia. You must know that Russia in the Yeltsin era almost adopted a completely Westernized model in its domestic and foreign affairs.
At that time, Russia followed the Western political and economic system in all aspects of domestic affairs, and actively worked to improve relations with Western countries on the diplomatic line. The reason why Russia proposed to join NATO at this time was to improve relations with Western countries. In January 1994, the NATO Brussels Summit adopted the plan to establish a "peace partnership" with Central and Eastern European countries and Russia. On the surface, NATO seemed to be interested in improving relations with Russia and the former Eastern European bloc countries. However, in fact, NATO has On the issue of expansion, Russia is actually treated differently from other Eastern European countries.
NATO's approach to Eastern European countries is to bring these countries into the NATO framework system, but it is a different concept for Russia. The entry of a behemoth like Russia, which is larger than all other European countries combined, into NATO will undoubtedly greatly change the established power structure within NATO. Even though Russia at that time was in the throes of reform in the early stages of the Soviet Union's disintegration and was at a low point in its overall national strength and international status, its development potential was something that Western countries could not ignore.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States became the only superpower in the world. At this time, the United States began to pursue a unilateral diplomatic line on a global scale and tried its best to maintain its hegemony and dominance around the world. As a world hegemon, what the United States fears most is the existence of a regional hegemon. Even though the United States, as a global hegemon, is stronger than regional hegemons in terms of comprehensive strength, after all, the strong dragon cannot overwhelm the local leader. If there is a regional hegemon in a certain region, then this regional hegemon can use its natural geographical advantages to block the expansion of US interests in this region.
Russia has the power to be a regional hegemon due to its large national size, powerful military industry, and abundant resource reserves. At the same time, the United States also needs to create an external enemy to maintain a unified position within NATO, and Russia is exactly suitable to play this role. Such a role. Therefore, under the leadership of the United States, NATO rejected Russia's accession. While NATO refuses Russia's accession, it has been expanding eastward and encroaching on Russia's traditional strategic space. You must know that during the Soviet era, most Central and Eastern European countries joined the Warsaw Pact with the Soviet Union as the core.
At that time, the Soviet Union's strategic space extended all the way west to East Germany. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia lost its traditional strategic space in Central and Eastern Europe, but it was still able to maintain its strategic presence in the former Soviet republics. In March 1993, NATO first admitted the three former Warsaw Pact members, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, as members. From March 24, 1999 to June 10, 1999, NATO, led by the United States, launched the Kosovo War against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. After the war, Russia's power was completely squeezed out of the original Eastern European power. lock up.
On November 21, 2002, and the three Baltic countries joined NATO. So far, NATO member states have directly bordered Russia, and NATO military forces have been deployed at Russia's doorstep. Putin, who was still in his first term at the time, was concentrating on dealing with the domestic oligarchs, separatist forces in Chechnya, and the severe economic situation. Therefore, he chose to avoid conflicts and frictions with Western countries in foreign policy.At that time, Putin once again brought up the old matter of Russia joining NATO in order to ease relations with Western countries.
Russia’s self-esteem as a major power determines that even if it joins NATO, it cannot be the younger brother of the United States and other Western countries. Even if Russia recognizes that the United States is the leader of NATO, then it will have to be the second in command if it joins the alliance. This is of course a major challenge to the original power structure within NATO. The then US President Clinton replied: "If I could make the decision alone, I would definitely welcome Russia." The subtext of this sentence is actually that it is not welcome. After that, in 2003 and 2008, Russia reiterated its intention to join NATO.
Russia has shown enthusiasm but has been blocked from the door of NATO time and time again. At the same time, NATO's continuous eastward expansion has been squeezing Russia's doorstep. Nowadays, there are only two strategic buffer zones between Russia and Western countries: Belarus and Ukraine. Therefore, Russia regards ensuring that Belarus and Ukraine do not join NATO as its bottom line. It can be seen that NATO's eastward expansion is a strategic containment against itself in Russia's eyes. Through such sorting, it is not difficult to understand why Russia has such a big reaction to Ukraine's move towards Western countries.
Now suppose that if the NATO organization ceased to exist, it would be a great thing for Russia. After all, NATO's eastward expansion directly targets Russia. If one day NATO ceases to exist, it means that the strategic pressure on Russia's western defense line will be greatly reduced. After Russia achieves the goal of security and stability, it can accordingly reduce its defense spending and devote more energy to the development of science and technology and the economy and people's livelihood. If the NATO military alliance disbands one day, Russia will be the obvious winner.
However, Russia is not the only one who can benefit from the dissolution of NATO. The disruption of an old military alliance system will inevitably benefit many emerging forces. Because this means that the world's boss will give up his position and decentralize power, so countries that have the ability to seize position and power are winners. Although most European countries are the ponyboys of the United States, after all, European countries still have their own interests. In fact, the birth of the EU itself has factors in European countries trying to get rid of the control of the United States. For a long time, European countries have worked with the United States to contain Russia.
However, in some specific aspects, European countries also have certain cooperation with Russia in order to check and balance the United States. For example, the Nord Stream project, as a typical project of cooperation between the EU and Russia, has always been regarded as a thorn in the side of the United States. With Britain's departure from the European Union, the European Union has gradually transformed into an organization of continental European countries (with France and Germany as the leaders). In fact, European countries such as France and Germany are not inferior to the United States and Russia in terms of technology and economy, but they are not on the same level as the United States and Russia in terms of military strength.
In fact, France, Germany and other countries are leading the world in military technology. The reason why European countries such as France and Germany are inferior to the United States and Russia in terms of military strength is not because their military technology is not developed enough, but because these countries have limited territory, population, and resources, which limits the number of troops and the scale of their military industry. Therefore, for many years France, Germany and other countries have continuously strengthened integration cooperation among European countries through the EU. Any single European country is inferior to the United States and Russia in terms of overall national strength, but together European countries are expected to become a major force in the world.
EU member states have carried out fruitful cooperation in the economic field. In recent years, EU member states have even begun to express intentions for military cooperation. French President Macron has always suggested that European countries should establish a unified defense system (European Army). Now Germany is also taking advantage of this round of Ukraine crisis to quietly start rearming. Germany's military technology has always been very strong. However, after World War II, as a defeated country, Germany faced many restrictions in the military field. Therefore, Germany's military power has long been not dazzling compared to other military powers.
But now Germany has a special defense budget of up to 100 billion euros.If Germany is allowed to develop according to this trend, it is not impossible to become as powerful a war machine as it was in World War II. If NATO disbands one day in the future, it may not be a bad thing for France, Germany and other European countries. The United States has long used NATO as an organization to tie European countries to the chariot of containing Russia. If one day France, Germany and other European countries get rid of the shackles of NATO, they can start to establish a unified European defense system.
On the other hand, after losing the tool of NATO, the United States will inevitably withdraw from Europe in a large scale, and the US alliance system will collapse in half. As the hegemony of the United States loosens, emerging countries such as China and India will also become beneficiaries. Of course, the United States itself knows very well that NATO is an important tool for it to maintain its hegemony. Not only will the United States not allow NATO to disband, but it will also do everything possible to expand the size of NATO. NATO's continued eastward expansion has constituted a sharp contradiction with Russia's strategic interests.
Today's Russia no longer has any hope of joining NATO, but Russia's actual situation cannot break up NATO, so it can only ensure its strategic interests by preventing further eastward expansion of NATO. Ukraine has become the focus of competition between Russia and NATO. You must know that Ukraine is different from Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic that have joined NATO: Although Poland and the Czech Republic are countries in the former Soviet bloc, they are not republics of the Soviet Union after all, and they are geographically far away from Russia.
As a former Soviet republic, Ukraine is right at home for Russia, not to mention that the birthplace of the Russian nation is Kievan Rus in Ukraine. Ukraine is an important trading partner of Russia economically and an important strategic depth in resisting threats from the West militarily. Moreover, Russia is also worried that once Ukraine turns to the West, it may cause a domino effect in former Soviet republics such as Belarus, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, and Russia's strategic space and traditional markets will be further squeezed.
